17日參考

The market opened lower on Monday, and with the ES unable to
hold the 1348 area, the pressure was on for a pullback to
test the 1344-1343 support zone. That was barely broken
(1343.00 early low) and the market turned back up. The ES
made an up-down-up move to 1352.50, right at the 1352.50-
1353.25 initial resistance, and then a pullback to 1346.75
followed that. We had updated support at 1347.00, and with
that area holding, the market went into choppy stair step
higher to 1351.75 by 2:20 PM. A pullback to 1349 was bid
back up, and then after churning between 1351 and 1349, the
market finally broke back down. The ES reached 1346.50 in
the last 15 minutes of stock trading, and after bouncing
back to 1349.50 the ES pulled back to 1347.00 just before
settling.
We get the PPI before the open on Tuesday, and then at 10 AM
Fed chairman Bernanke begins speaking. On the ES there is a
double top at 1352.50-1353.25 and the NQ has a double top
around 2584.50. Both of those should be key areas short-
term. Internal gauges were just a hiccup away from
overbought territory coming into the week, and have room to
fall back further. The way it looks at the moment, the
market has more to go on the downside before there is any
kind of rally attempt. With everything that's going on early
on Tuesday, we should get some clues by price action in the
early going.

In order to attempt to break through that resistance, the ES
first needs to push above the 1349.50 area and be able to
hold around there on a pullback. If the initial support is
not broken, and that minor initial resistance IS pushed
through and able to hold, then that should set up a run to
test those resistance areas. If they don't fail on what
would be the fourth test of that area, then we could see
shorts covering and help push the market towards the
1356.50-1357.00 area on the ES. That would be the next key
hurdle for the market to clear. If the market somehow gets
that far, there should be some pullback if not an outright
reversal. However, if that 1357 area is pushed through, then
we could be headed just over the 1360 area on this leg up
before selling comes in. It's going to take a lot of work,
and some sort of surprise, to get the market to rally far on
Tuesday.

If the ES stays under the 1349.50 initial resistance area
(or pokes over it and turns right back down), then we are
likely headed back to test/break Monday's low at the
1343.00-1342.50 support area. If there's no sign of a
reversal back up from that area, then we could be on our way
under 1340 and test the 1338.00-1337.50 area, at the least.
If the market gets there, and there's no sign of a turn,
then it could continue pressing lower towards the 1334.00-
1332.50 zone. That should be as far as a pullback goes,
unless the market is back in bigger trouble short-term. If
that's the case, then we should see a test of the 1328 area
before any kind of bounce occurs.



September 2012 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini =3D esu2 / big contract =3Dspu2
1349.50
1352.50-1353.25 *key
1356.50-1357.00 *strong
1361.75-1363.00 *minor
1368.50-1369.50 *major


September 2012 SP futures support
symbols: emini =3D esu2 / big contract =3Dspu2

1346.25-1345.75 *key early
1343.00-1342.50 *strong
1338.00-1337.50 *very strong
1334.00-1332.50 *major Tuesday


September 2012 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini =3D nqu2 / big contract =3D ndu2

2576.00
2584.00-2585.00 *key
2593.50-2595.00 *strong
2605.50-2606.50 *minor
2618.50-2620.00 *major


September 2012 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini =3D nqu2 / big contract =3D ndu2
2570.00-2568.50 *key early
2562.50-2561.50 *strong
2550.25-2549.25 *very strong
2538.50-2537.50 *major Tuesday