劉曉波贏得和平獎將如何影響中國政府對待持不同政見者的態度(中英對照)

紐約時報：劉曉波贏得和平獎將如何影響中國政府對待持不同政見者的態度

原始來源：紐約時報

　簡介

　　諾貝爾和平獎被授予劉曉波 ，中國最著名的持不同政見者，誰是目前正在監獄服刑的一個顛覆罪11年。他20多年來一直主張和平的政治變革，公民自由和司法獨立。 中共政府立即封鎖了劉曉波獲獎的消息，稱該決定是「褻瀆」和平獎。

　　這個獎項會發揮作用嗎？如果對中方政府沒有，那對那些與中國打交道的國家呢？ 在中國我們可能看到什麼樣的影響，例如使國際關注會持傷害不同政見者的運動嗎？

　　What Best Serves the Communist Party 對共產黨最有利的

　　Updated October 9, 2010, 01:15 AM

　　Perry Link is Chancellorial Chair in Teaching Across Disciplines at the University of California, Riverside, and author of 「Evening Chats in Beijing,」 as well as co-editor of 「The Tiananmen Papers.」（林培瑞 加州大學濱河校區教務長，著有《北京夜話》同時是《天安門文件》的編輯者之一）

　　The Chinese government addresses such issues strictly in terms of one question: What serves the Communist Party』s monopoly grip on power?中國政府處理問題嚴格依照的標準是：如何有利於共產黨對權力的壟斷控制？

　　In the short term, the government』s response to Liu Xiaobo』s peace prize will certainly be to try to expunge all mention of it from the media and the Internet. And insofar as the news does leak out, government leaders will try to stimulate and exploit nationalist sentiment by charging that foreigners are meddling in China』s affairs and that Liu has lost face for the motherland -- for whom we, the Communist Party, are the sole legitimate representative. There is no doubt that this will be the short-term response. Indeed the first signs are already visible. 從短期來看，政府的回應劉曉波獲得和平獎的方式肯定是儘力抹去在所有的媒體和互聯網上的相關消息。這個新聞在一定程度上已經傳播開來，政府領導人將試圖通過宣傳「外國人干涉中國的事務，劉讓祖國丟臉」來鼓勵和利用民族主義情緒，而因為我們共產黨，才是唯一的合法代表。 毫無疑問，這將是短期反應。事實上，最初跡象已經顯現。

　　In the long run, though, the government authorities must decide if the perpetual international embarrassment is worth keeping one bookish free-thinker behind bars. They will have to calculate whether their power is better served by releasing Liu and subjecting him to the garden-variety harassment and control that other dissidents routinely endure. 從長遠看，政府當局必須決定這個永遠的國際笑話，是否繼續關押這位帶有書生氣的自由思想家。 他們也將不得不計算釋放劉曉波先生和使他受到其他異見人士通常所遇到的騷擾和控制，是否對他們的政權更有利。

　　The big question is not the government』s reaction but the long-term reaction of China』s people. In my view, the prize will add considerable prestige and weight to alternate visions of China』s future that originate with those outside of the government. 最大的問題不是政府的反應，而是中國人民的長期反應。 在我看來，諾貝爾和平獎將巨大增加民間所提出的未來中國願景的威望和可選擇的份量。

　　The prize will help Chinese people to see and feel that they have choices in what they pin their Chinese identity on. 「China」 in the 21st-century can be something bigger than, better than, and healthier than a crusty old-fashioned authoritarian governmen此獎將幫助中國民眾感受到他們對自己的中國特徵是有選擇的。「中國」在21世紀可能會比頑固的老式獨裁政府變得更大，更好，更健康。

　　Galvanizing Other Nations 激發其他國家

　　Updated October 9, 2010, 01:08 AM

　　Bei Ling, a poet and essayist, is the editor of Tendency, an exile literary journal, and the founder of Independent Chinese PEN Center. 貝嶺 詩人散文家 流亡文學雜誌《趨勢》的編輯 獨立中文筆會的創始人

　　The peace prize being given to Liu gives opposition activities across the world more courage and strength to advocate for human rights and freedom in China. 劉曉波獲得和平獎讓世界各地的反對活動有更多的勇氣和力量倡導中國人權和自由。

　　The Chinese government won』t change much because of the peace prize. It will continue to suppress pro-democracy voices and activities. But I think this award can galvanize other nations to demand more of China on human rights issues. This may allow them to be more direct in confronting China, perhaps even with economic and trade concerns. 中國政府將不會因為和平獎而改變。它將繼續壓制民主的聲音和活動。 但我認為這個獎能夠激發其他國家在人權問題上對中國要求更多。這可能使他們更直接造成與中國的對立，甚至可能會發生經濟和貿易問題。

　　 China is tight with its censorship, but it cannot control everything. And while it will almost certainly try to increase controls, human rights activities within China are equally likely to become broader and more intense. I hope new international attention will help Liu and other activists like Hu Jia and Gao Zhisheng and other less well known political prisoners in China regain their freedom. 中國採取嚴格審查，但它無法控制一切。雖然它幾乎肯定會設法加強控制，在中國的人權活動也同樣可能成為更廣泛和更激烈。我希望新的國際關注能幫助劉曉波和其他像其他象胡佳和高智晟這樣的活躍人士以及其他更少被人們關注的中國政治犯重獲自由。

　　China's Bitter Response中國的痛苦回應

　　Updated October 9, 2010, 01:08 AM

　　Richard McGregor is the deputy news editor of the Financial Times and the author of "The Party: The Secret World of China's Communist Rulers." 馬德利《金融時報》副主編 著有《黨：中國共產黨統治者的秘密世界》

　　Based on past experience and the early response out of Beijing, China will react in a number of ways to bestowal of the prize on Liu Xiaobo. 根據以前的經驗和北京早期反應觀察，中國將會對劉曉波獲獎作出許多反應的方式。

　　At home, they will seek to minimize any publicity in the mainstream media and on the Internet. Most Chinese will never have heard of Liu and the government does not want to stoke their curiosity. Nor does it want anybody who doesn』t know about Charter '08 -- the pro-democracy petition that got Liu into such trouble -- to develop an interest in it. Depriving dissidents of the oxygen of publicity is a tried and true approach for the ruling Communist Party. Liu』s Nobel prize will ironically make him a better known figure overseas than he is at home. 在家裡，他們將設法盡量減少在主流媒體和互聯網上的宣傳。大多數中國人不會聽到劉曉波，同時政府不想激起他們的好奇心。它也不希望任何不知道08憲章的人產生興趣：08憲章是一份民主請願書，它使劉曉波陷入現在的麻煩。剝奪持不同政見者的話語權是共產黨執政的一種已經嘗試過的真實方法。 具有諷刺意味的是：劉曉波獲得諾貝爾獎讓他在海外比他在家裡更為人所知。

　　For consumption abroad, the government has issued a boilerplate vituperative statement, labeling the award an 「obscenity,」 a message to the world that the Chinese government will not be influenced by foreign criticism. China cares deeply about its image overseas but it worries much more about being seen to bend to foreign pressure. Anyone seen to do so within the Chinese system is extremely vulnerable to harsh political attacks.政府已對海外發出一份固有模式的譴責聲明，給此獎打上「褻瀆」的標籤，這向世界表態，中國政府將不會受到外國批評的影響。 中國關注自身在海外的形象，但它更多擔心的是被視為屈服於外國壓力。中國任何想這樣行動的人極易受到激烈地政治攻擊

　　There may be some tactical concessions -- Liu's wife may be able to visit him and pass on the news. Otherwise, China is in a stronger position than ever to resist Western pressure on human rights. In that respect, it is hard to see how the peace prize will help Liu and other dissidents. For all the extraordinary stirrings of political change in China, the award, in the short-term, sadly, may make things worse. 可能會有一些戰術上的讓步：劉曉波的妻子也許可以探望他，把這個消息告訴他。中國目前處在一個比以往更有利的地位，可以抵制西方的人權壓力。在這方面，很難看到和平獎將幫助劉曉波和其他持不同政見者。 悲觀地說，對於一切中國政治改革不平常的萌芽，這個獎在短期內可能會使事情變得更糟。

　　Pressure From Abroad 來自海外的壓力

　　Updated October 9, 2010, 01:08 AM

　　Yang Jianli is a former prisoner of conscience in China and one of Liu's Xiaobo's international team of human rights specialists. He now resides in the U.S. and is the president of Initiatives for China. 楊建利 是中國以前的良心犯。劉曉波國際團隊中的一名人權領域專家。 他現居住在美國，是公民力量主席。

　　The presentation of the Peace Prize to Liu Xiaobo represents an incredible opportunity to bring the public』s awareness of democratization and human rights issues in China to another level. 和平獎頒給劉曉波代表一個令人難以置信的機會，可以使公眾對中國的民主化和人權問題的認識提高到了另一個層次。

　　Combined with Prime Minister Wen Jiabao』s recent statements about the need for political reforms, this event could well encourage more Chinese citizens to join the democratic forces under the banner of Charter 』08, the reform manifesto which Liu helped create. 結合溫家寶總理最近關於需要進行政治改革的聲明，這一事件很可能鼓勵更多的中國公民在08憲章的旗幟下，參與到民主力量中。劉曉波幫助建立了這份改革宣言。

　　I believe we can expect interesting and significant changes both in and out the government. As I said long ago, to effect a real change in China, three conditions must be present at the same time: crises (now mounting in many ways among ordinary citizens), viable opposition and international support. These three factors are emerging with greater force.我相信我能能夠期待政府內外都會有一個重大的改變。正如我早就說過的，為了實現中國的真正變化，必須同時具備三個條件：危機（現在普通公民的許多方面目前正在增加），可行的反對力量和國際支持。 這三個因素是正在漸漸壯大。

　　The media blackouts in China of Liu』s award are regrettable, and the government』s restrictions on Liu Xiaobo』s wife, Liu Xia, are downright shameful. But it』s not surprising that the authorities』 first response is to tighten control because that is the only thing they know. With the international spotlight on Liu, the authorities will pay a heavier price than ever before for their heavy-handed policies. 中國媒體對劉獲獎的封鎖令人遺憾，政府的限制劉曉波的妻子劉霞是徹頭徹尾的恥辱。但是，這並不奇怪，當局的第一反應是加強控制，因為這是他們唯一知道。隨著劉曉波的國際關注度增加，當局將為他們的嚴厲政策付出比以往任何時候更大的代價。

　　Power in a Symbol 符號中的權力

　　Updated October 9, 2010, 09:37 PM

　　Jeffrey N. Wasserstrom is a professor of history at University of California, Irvine, a co-founder of 「The China Beat」 blog, and editor of the Journal of Asian Studies. He is the author of 「China in the 21st Century: What Everyone Needs to Know." 傑弗里 沃塞斯特羅姆 是加州歐文分校的歷史系教授，「中國節拍」的聯合創辦人，《亞洲研究》編輯著有《21世紀的中國：人人都須知道的》

　　It would be foolish to think that this prize will have a dramatic and direct effect on Chinese political arrangements, in part because the government will try to control and spin the news that gets to ordinary citizens. Nonetheless, it does matter.認為這個獎將對中國的政治進程產生戲劇性的直接效果，這將是愚蠢的。部分原因是政府將會努力控制和干擾普通公民得到此消息。 儘管如此，這獎也非常重要

　　It will, at the very least, be a shot in the arm to many different kinds of activists working for change within the country, for whether or not they have any link to Liu Xiaobo (and most do not), they are likely to see him as a symbol for all efforts to increase respect for rights in China. And they will see his win as an indication that the world at large cares about these efforts.最起碼，對許多正從事不同的工作來改變國家的行動者，它會是一個強心針，無論他們是否和劉曉波有任何聯繫（也許完全沒有），他們很可能會將他看作為一切努力增加尊重中國人權的象徵。 他們將看到一個標誌：他的勝利是整個世界對這些努力的關心。

　　Perhaps the most significant aspect of the award is the way it challenges central aspects of what I see as the Chinese government』s ongoing 「re-branding」 drive. It aims to foster an image of China as a place that has found an appealing way to combine humanistic traditions (represented by Confucius, now back in favor) with impressive strides toward economic modernity. 也許這個獎最重要的一面是它根本上挑戰了政府正在進行的我視為中國 「重塑品牌」的活動。它的目的是培養一種中國想象：中國已經找到一種結合人文主義傳統（以孔子為代表，現在重新支持）和在經濟現代化中大步前進。

　　One reason that Beijing has been so frustrated with Liu Xiaobo is that his writings eloquently expose the weakness behind the re-branding, namely that the expansion of civil rights lags dramatically behind the expansion of economic choices, and that government corruption remains endemic.北京如此沮喪的一個重要原因是，劉曉波的著作雄辯地揭露了中國重塑品牌背後的弱點，即公民權利的擴張大大落後於經濟發展，而政府的腐敗仍然流行。

　　Liu』s award has to be seen by Beijing as an obstacle to its re-branding campaign, which have included the image of the country presented during the opening ceremonies of the Olympics and the establishment of government-funded 「Confucius Institutes」 around the world. All these efforts strive to differentiate today』s China from the China of Mao』s day, the Communism of the Soviet Union, and from nakedly repressive neighbors like Burma and North Korea. 劉曉波獲獎被北京視為品牌重塑活動的障礙，這活動包括奧運會期間的開幕式和在世界各地政府資助建立的「孔子學院」， 所有這些努力奮鬥，想讓今天的中國形象區別於毛澤東治下的中國社會和共產主義蘇聯，以及實行赤裸裸鎮壓的鄰居緬甸和朝鮮。

　　Liu Xiaobo and the other framers of the 「Charter 『08」Internet petition went against the grain of these re-branding exercises by highlighting the degree to which China remains subject to exactly the sort of political critique that the Czech crafters of Charter 77 (on which the Chinese charter was based) made of the Communist Central European regime. For him to be awarded the prize won by Aung San Suu Kyi, while she was under house arrest, will undermine the notion that China and Burma are totally dissimilar. 劉曉波和其他 「憲章'08」起草者的互聯網聯署活動與這些品牌塑造活動格格不如，它突出顯示了中國仍然和捷克斯洛伐克的77憲章（它是中國08憲章的來源之一）時的專制社會相似精準的壓制政治上的反對派。對於他被授予的諾貝爾和平獎，昂山素季也曾是該獎得主，她得獎時正被軟禁在家，這將破壞中國和緬甸是完全不一樣的概念。

　　The Chinese government claims, of course, that to achieve economic growth and development has required a society that is 「stable」 and 「harmonious,」 and that acts of dissent often endanger this stability. 當然中國政府聲稱：要實現經濟增長和發展需要社會「穩定」和「和諧」，而持不同政見者的行為往往危及這種穩定。

　　It should be hard to make this argument stick when leveled at Liu Xiaobo. His writings have often stressed the need for compromise and he』s often championed the idea that change should come with a minimum of confrontation. And he was, after all, someone who both supported the 1989 protesters and counseled them to be moderate in their demands and tactics when possible.當批判劉曉波時，這種爭論很難繼續下去。 他的作品往往需要強調的妥協，他的想法常常倡導的改變都應該有一個最低的對話。 而他至少在1989年時是支持和建議反對者們在適當的時候提出溫和要求。

　　Unfortunately, few Chinese citizens are familiar with Liu』s actions and writings. It is good that the Nobel prize, in addition to making these better known globally, should raise their profile at least a bit inside China. 不幸的是，只有很少的中國公民了解劉曉波的行動和著作。 令人高興的是，諾貝爾獎，除了使世界更好地了解他之外，他在中國的知名度也會得到提升。