Study Shows Migration to U.S. Follows Trend

Study Shows Migration to U.S. Follows Trend
By NINA BERNSTEIN  New York Times
Contrary to conventional wisdom, migration to the United States peaked in 2000 and has declined substantially since then, even taking into consideration signs of a fresh upturn in 2004, according to a new year-by-year analysis released today by the Pew Hispanic Center.

The report, based on a novel combination of data gathered by the Census Bureau, finds that the overall ebb and flow of immigrants - up to a peak of 1.5 million a year in 2000, and down by about 25 percent in 2004 - followed the growth and contraction of the United States economy, even though more of the immigrants entering the country were illegal rather than legal in the last six years.

"Immigration is still tied to the U.S. economy," said Jeffrey S. Passel, a senior researcher at the center who is known as an expert on the demographics of migration and is the co-author of the report with Roberto Suro, the center's director. "We may well be heading towards another peak. But I think the point here is that if we are, it's probably associated with economic factors, both here and in the sending countries, and it's not necessarily inevitable."

That conclusion counters another thesis, advanced by advocates for more restrictions on immigration, that immigration is no longer dampened by recessions and is growing independent of labor market demand. They include Steven Camarota, director of research at the Center for Immigration Studies, who questioned the methodology of the Pew study, saying that to calculate yearly rates of influx it had to rely on relatively small samples with large error rates.

One surprise in the report was a finding that immigrant flows to New York, the historic gateway for newcomers, had already peaked by 1997, and then gradually declined until 2003 - a five-year period when immigration in most other states was spiking.

"Immigrants are still coming to New York," Mr. Passel cautioned, noting that the state continues to receive more newcomers than all but three others, California, Texas and Florida. "The foreign-born population continues to grow. What we're saying here about New York, specifically, is that their share of the new arrivals has clearly gone down a lot."

He said he suspects one reason is the growing share of illegal immigrants coming to the country - from four out of ten before the spike to a little over half of yearly immigrants since then -- and the fact that more of the illegal entrants, who are predominantly Mexican, go to Florida and Texas rather than to New York.

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