Barack Obama on tour 奧巴馬的造勢之行

Barack Obama on tour
奧巴馬的造勢之行
Welcome, Mr would-be President
歡迎到訪，總統競選者先生
Jul 17th 2008
From The Economist print edition

But foreigners would be wise to temper their Obamamania, if only to limit future disappointment
戒慎追」馬」熱，宜靜為後觀


IF THE business of electing the most powerful man in the world were up to the world, rather than just those pesky Americans, Barack Obama would face no contest. A poll for the Guardian this week, on the eve of Mr Obama』s whirlwind tour of Europe and the Middle East (half a dozen countries in a week, some for the first time in his life), shows that Britons would back him against John McCain by the astonishing margin of five to one. The Pew Research Centre reported last month that, in each of the main European countries, at least twice as many people have confidence in Mr Obama as in his rival. Elsewhere things are a bit more nuanced, but from Mexico to China, and from Russia to Australia, the foreigners are firmly in the Obama camp.

如果世界最高權力者的選舉活動由全球共同參與，而不僅僅是那些惱人的老美，巴拉克•奧巴馬大概就無需競選了。本周，在他前往歐洲和中東開啟旋風之旅（一周之內走訪6個國家，有些還是他有生以來的首次造訪）的前夕，《衛報》所做的一項民調顯示，在英國，欲挺奧巴馬的人數相對支持麥克恩的人數比例驚人，懸殊高達5：1。皮尤研究中心上個月的報告稱，在各個歐洲大國，對奧巴馬懷有信心的民眾超過麥凱恩擁躉人數的至少一倍。在其他地區，差別略顯微妙，但從墨西哥到中國，從俄羅斯到澳大利亞，外國人都堅定地站到了奧巴馬陣營。

There are reasons for them to be more cautious. Marvellous orator and skilled electoral tactician though he may be, Mr Obama has not repealed the basic laws of politics. Most obviously, he may not win. Rasmussen, a pollster, rattled the Obama machine this week by showing the two candidates tied, and most other analysts agree that the bounce he enjoyed after seeing off Hillary Clinton has been small and short-lived. Mr Obama still definitely has the edge, but opinion at home diverges sharply from that in most of the rest of the world.

這些人要更加謹慎，原因有三。首先，儘管奧巴馬是演說奇才，滔滔雄辯，而且善打選戰，謀略一流，但政治上的基本法則並未因此就停擺。顯而易見的是，他未必能贏。民調機構拉斯穆森(Rasmussen)本周發布的數據顯示，兩位候選人的民意支持度持平，這讓奧巴馬的競選團隊焦慮不安。而多數其他的分析人士也都意見一致，認為奧巴馬在送別希拉里后獲得的支持率反彈空間狹小，為時短暫。奧巴馬仍握有相當的優勢，但國內民意與世界其它大部分地區的輿論分歧甚巨。

Second, President Obama would not be answerable to the world that so adores him. A president is elected by America』s more ambivalent people, and is accountable only to them. And his powers are mightily constrained by Congress, which is even more immediately accountable to its electorate.

其二，當選后的奧巴馬不會向這個對他愛寵有加的世界履職盡責。總統是由情緒矛盾的美利堅民族選出的，因此只對這些人負責。而且，總統職權受到國會的有力制約，而國會甚至更加直接地對選民負責。

Finally, there are some disquieting signs of a tendency on Mr Obama』s part to tailor his message to whichever audience he is talking to. All politicians do this of course. But Mr Obama』s two-steps have become Astaire-like. For instance, in his primary battle with Mrs Clinton, Mr Obama laid out a timetable for a virtually complete withdrawal from Iraq within 16 months of taking office, specifying a rate of one to two brigades a month. Since starting to campaign in the general election, he has fudged this clear line: he committed to withdrawal again this week (see article), but he has also been careful to give himself wriggle-room on its pace. Similarly, he once talked of negotiating with the Iranian leadership without preconditions: now he talks of the need for 「preparations」.

第三，有些令人不安的跡象表明，奧巴馬越來越趨向於對任何觀眾都傳遞應時變化的信息。當然，所有的政治人物都這麼做。但奧巴馬的兩步舞跳得神乎其技，仿若弗雷德•阿斯泰爾（20世紀最偉大的舞者之一–譯者注）。譬如，在與希拉里的預選戰中，奧巴馬列出了時間表，稱將在就職后的16個月內從伊拉克完全撤軍，規定每個月撤1到2個旅。自從角力大選以來，他就不斷篡變立場：本周，他再度強調自己致力於撤軍行動，但也小心翼翼地在撤軍速度上留下予己回還的空間。與此類似，他也曾表示在不設前提的條件下與伊朗領導層展開協商，但如今卻改口稱需設」前提」。

Both these alterations make sense, but many Europeans won』t like them. Other bits of pandering could be more costly. Mr Obama recently told the main pro-Israel group in Washington that Jerusalem must never be divided, a position that goes beyond those of the Clinton and Bush administrations (not to mention that of many Israelis). Then he backtracked.

這兩項變化可以理解，但許多歐洲人並不樂於接受。其它迎合民意的做法代價可能更高。奧巴馬近來告知華盛頓親以色列的主要團體，稱決不可分隔耶路撒冷，這一立場相比了柯林頓政府和布希政府的官員（更別提許多以色列人）走得更遠。而後，他又有所退縮。

Doffing the cap
你好，國會
On trade, Mr Obama used to demand the renegotiation of NAFTA; now he stresses his dedication to the cause of free trade. A welcome adjustment, but he is almost certain, if elected, to have a heavily Democratic Congress which is liable to send him protectionist legislation he may find it hard to veto. On climate change he, like Mr McCain, favours a cap-and-trade system. But the Democrat-controlled Congress recently failed to agree even on a watered-down version of such a plan, without any need for a veto from George Bush.

在貿易方面，奧巴馬曾要求重新商議北美自由貿易協定；而如今，他則強調自己對此進程的貢獻。這一調整值得歡迎，但他若當選，幾乎必定會面對一個民主黨佔據主導的國會。這個國會多半會行送貿易保護法條，而他可能覺得難以下手否決。在氣候變化議題上，他和麥凱恩一樣，都支持排放上限和貿易制度。但是最近，民主黨掌控的國會甚至未能就這樣一項打了折扣的制度方案達成共識，（在這種情況下，）布希的否決毫無必要。

On all these fronts, in fact, there are doubts: doubts as to just what Mr Obama』s positions as president would actually be, and doubts over what he could get through Congress. Those doubts will not stop the crowds turning out for him, even if he fails to commandeer the Brandenburg Gate as his backdrop. But the fans should bear in mind that what they see is not precisely what they will get.

事實上，選民對所有這些議題都心存疑慮：奧巴馬登上大位后的真實立場會是怎樣；還有，他能讓國會通過什麼議案。這些疑慮不會阻止民眾出門投票，即使他未能」徵用」勃蘭登堡門作為自己的演說台。不過，追捧者應當記住，今日之所見未必是明朝之所得。

譯者： 零下1℃　http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=12755&extra=page%3D1