Rare Earth Roulette - The Pakistan Gambit

Source: Reuters exclusive on U.S.-Pakistan negotiations (November 2023)
Buried in Section 871 of the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act is a $2.1 billion allocation for 「critical mineral partnerships.」 Enter Pakistan—a nation with chronic energy shortages but untapped mineral potential. The U.S. Geological Survey confirms Pakistan』s Reko Diq copper-gold deposits could yield 200,000 tons of rare earth oxides annually. But here』s the rub: processing these minerals requires technology currently monopolized by Chinese firms like Shenghe Resources.
The deal』s timing—days after Trump』s tariff threats—is no accident. It』s a Hail Mary pass in the great power game. Consider the math: building a rare earth supply chain from scratch takes 7-10 years, estimates Adamas Intelligence. By contrast, China』s Jiangxi province alone produces 70% of global terbium—a key component in guided missiles. The Pentagon』s 2022 report warned that 80% of U.S. defense contractors rely on Chinese-processed minerals. Pakistan isn』t a solution; it』s a distraction.
Conclusion: This partnership isn』t about minerals—it』s about political theater. By chasing symbolic wins, Washington risks neglecting real innovation.