快訊: 盧比看起來脆弱

快訊：盧比看起來脆弱
傑夫Glekin

孟買|星期一，6:01下午北京時間2012年04月30日

（路透社快訊） - 印度的膨脹的貿易赤字意味著它停滯不前。沒有穩定的資本流入，貨幣將面臨崩潰。如果沒有一個穩定的貨幣，很難吸引外資。在過去的一年盧比兌美元匯率下跌19％令人擔憂。

在過去十年中資助貿易赤字沒有很大的困難。外國直接投資，證券投資和大約一年600億美元匯款的，補償了貿易赤字的短缺。印度已累計約300億美元的外匯儲備，相當於國內生產總值的17％。

但全年的貿易赤字擴大從$ 104億至185億美元。達國內生產總值的3.7％，是自1980年，當國際貨幣基金開始收集數據以來的最高。高能源價格最近惡化的罪魁禍首 - 石油占該國的進口費用的三分之二。當然，打擊將會減輕，如果印度有較強的出口部門。

外國投資者的支持是比以往任何時候都更有必要，但新德里的管理不善，阻止了他們。外國人購買印度在2012年3個月的債務和股票每月平均30億美元，根據印度網站的證券和交易委員會。到目前為止，在四月，他們有4.03億美元的凈賣家。

貨幣的下跌威脅，以創建一個負螺旋。更昂貴的進口通脹，並把對企業利潤的壓力。政府補貼國內燃油價格變得更加昂貴，增加財政赤字，而膨脹，在3月結束的財政年度國內生產總值的5.9％。此外，盧比的下滑增加了借用美元的印度公司的財務壓力。

印度的外匯儲備提供了​​一個緩衝區。但是，如果資本流動急劇轉負儲備能迅速融化。如果投資者開始相信，盧比是一個單向向下的賭注，他們將退出比賽。貨幣下降的預測 - 瑞銀上周建議進一步下降6％ - 是可以自我證明的。

背景新聞

- 盧比在4月24日創下的52.86美元的近4個月低點。據路透社報道，4月26日瑞銀報告預測匯率今年晚些時候將56盧比/1美元。

- 4月25削減印度標準普爾的信用評級展望，反映了巨額財政和經常貿易赤字, 給亞洲第三大經濟體帶來政治癱瘓的代價。負面前景，危及印度的長期信貸評級為BBB-，最低的投資級評級。

- 4月26日的路透調查顯示，市場參與者增加了近一倍，短期印度盧比賭注，自去年11月以來的最大變化。

（作者是路透社Breakingviews專欄作家。表達的意見是他自己的）

（編輯愛德華哈達和大衛·埃文斯）


原文。

BREAKINGVIEWS: The rupee looks vulnerable
By Jeff Glekin

MUMBAI | Mon Apr 30, 2012 6:01pm IST

(Reuters Breakingviews) - India's ballooning trade deficit means it has to run just to stand still. Without steady capital inflows, the currency will collapse. But without a steady currency, it is hard to attract foreign capital. The rupee's 19 percent fall against the dollar over the past year is worrying.

During most of the last decade, the current account deficit has been funded without great difficulty. Foreign direct investment, portfolio investments and about $60 billion a year of remittances have usually exceeded the shortfall in trade. India has accumulated around $300 billion of foreign currency reserves, equivalent to 17 percent of GDP.

But the annual trade gap has widened from $104 billion to $185 billion. At 3.7 percent of GDP, the current account deficit is the highest since 1980, when the International Monetary Fund starting collecting data. High energy prices are the main culprit for the recent deterioration - oil accounts for two-thirds of the country's import bill. Of course, the blow would have been less painful if Indian had a stronger export sector.

The support of foreign investors is more necessary than ever, but New Delhi's mismanagement has discouraged them. Foreigners bought an average of $3 billion a month of Indian debt and equities in the first three months of 2012, according to the Securities and Exchange Board of India's website. So far in April, they have been net sellers of $403 million.

The currency's fall threatens to create a negative spiral. More expensive imports are inflationary and put pressure on corporate profits. Government subsidies of domestic fuel prices become more costly, adding to the fiscal deficit, which swelled to 5.9 percent of GDP in the fiscal year that ended in March. Furthermore, the rupee's slide creates financial stress for Indian companies that have borrowed in dollars.

India's currency reserves provide a buffer. But if capital flows turn sharply negative the reserves could melt away quickly. And if investors start to believe that the rupee is a one-way downwards bet, they will race for the exit. Predictions of a declining currency - UBS suggested a further 6 percent fall last week - could prove self-fulfilling.

CONTEXT NEWS

- The rupee hit an almost 4-month low of 52.86 to the dollar on April 24. A UBS report predicted a rate of 56 to the dollar later this year, Reuters reported on April 26.

- Standard & Poor's cut India's credit rating outlook on April 25 to negative from stable, reflecting the toll of hefty fiscal and current account deficits and political paralysis on Asia's third-largest economy. The negative outlook jeopardises India's long-term rating of BBB-, the lowest investment grade rating.

- A Reuters poll on April 26 showed market players had nearly doubled short Indian rupee bets, the largest change since November.

(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own)

(Editing by Edward Hadas and David Evans)