留言板
- SecondThought
- As with your "美國債卷熊市可能遙遙無期", the history of the financial market supports this analysis. In the previous deflation-to-inflation stage from 1941 (or from 1947) to 1981, the benchmark rate (the U.S. 10Y yield) bottomed out around 1.9% in 1941 and made the double-bottom in 1947. The 10Y yield did not stay above 3% until 1957. In the early stage of the deflation-to-inflation, inflation is moderate because of still high debt levels. However the total returns from most types of bonds will be relatively low in coming years because interest rates will have no much room to decline further. In this stage, the best performing asset is equity. In the previous cycle, the S&P made three (or five) 30% plus annual gain from 1949 to 1958. The stock bull ended in 1966 when the 10Y yield became normalized.
