中國已經達到「沸點」

前美聯儲主席格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan），在任時始終堅持認為，當泡沫實際爆裂之前就看出泡沫是極端困難的。他說這是決策者們永遠不要刺破泡沫的原因之一。今天他似乎已經沒有疑問，中國的股市是大大的起泡了。他最近宣布中國股票價格「明顯地難以支持」，有「戲劇性收縮」的風險。

    根據經濟學家的「泡沫指南」，中國最近的股票價格上漲相對於歷史上的其它巨人還是比較溫和的。圖表顯示出中國過去五年的股價與二十世紀其它三大泡沫的對比：二十年代的華爾街，八十年代的日本和九十年代的納斯達克。納斯達克綜指從1995年到2000年增長超過500%，日本日經指數從1984年到1989年跳高了300%，上海A股指數顯示過去五年的增益大約只有160%。

    此外，中國A股目前平均市盈率比例約為45。在最高峰時期，1989年日經與2000年納斯達克市盈率比例均大大超過100。這表明中國的股價在泡沫爆裂前還有進一步大幅攀升的可能——除非中國決策者們比格林斯潘勇敢，現在就採取大膽的行動來打擊市場。


How does China's bubble compare with previous financial manias?

ALAN GREENSPAN, the former chairman of America's Federal Reserve, always insisted when in office that it was extremely hard to spot bubbles before they had actually burst. This, he said, is one reason why policymakers should never try to prick them. Today, however, he seems to have no doubts that China's stockmarket is bubbling over. He recently declared that Chinese share prices were 「clearly unsustainable」, with a risk of a 「dramatic contraction」.

It is curious that China's bubble seems so blindingly obvious to Mr Greenspan and so many other Americans who remained in denial about their own dotcom mania right to the end. For according to The Economist's 「Bubble guide」 (see chart), China's recent share-price boom is still relatively modest compared with the giants of history. The chart plots the performance of Chinese share prices over the past five years against the three great bubbles of the 20th century: Wall Street in the 1920s, Japan in the 1980s and America's NASDAQ in the 1990s. The NASDAQ composite index saw a gain of more than 500% from 1995 to early 2000. Japan's Nikkei 225 jumped by 300% from 1984 to 1989. The Shanghai A-share index, having recovered most of its plunge in late May, shows a gain of about only 160% over the past five years.

Moreover, Chinese A-shares now have an average price-earnings (p/e) ratio of around 45. At their peaks, the average p/e ratio of the Nikkei 225 in 1989 and the NASDAQ at the start of 2000 were both well over 100. This suggests that Chinese share prices could have much further to climb before the bubble bursts—unless China's policymakers are braver than Mr Greenspan and take bolder action to dampen the market now.

中國的股市是大大的起泡了

還是基金和理財穩妥