當「三不」政策可以改善緊張關係時

（作者：FRANK CHING；來源：新海峽時報）

      周末的時候，台灣和中國大陸在南京簽署三個協議。馬英九上台不到一年，兩岸就第三次達成協議，關係的改善非常顯著。

　　兩岸關係在過去一年逐步改善，與陳水扁時期相比變化很大。陳水扁當政時期，台灣不斷作出挑釁性的台獨動作。

　　台灣新總統馬英九已經宣布了「三不政策」。即不獨、不統、不武。既然台灣不尋求法理獨立，北京就逐步鞏固與台北的關係，鼓勵遊客到海峽對岸旅遊，簽署其他跟經濟相關的協議，尋求幫忙減輕經濟低迷的影響。

　　在進行棘手的政治討論之前，兩岸先討論較易解決的經濟問題，這是一種默契。

　　不過，即使是經濟問題，對馬英九政府來說也不容易。每一個動作都受到反對派的嚴格審查，幾乎每天都可以聽到反對派說馬英九政府出賣台灣的喊話。

　　在新一輪的會談之前總會出現新的障礙。下月，世界衛生大會將在日內瓦召開，台灣將再次尋求獲得觀察員地位。以往北京阻撓台北的意圖。如果台灣這次還是沒能取得觀察員地位，馬英九政府將遭遇毀滅性打擊，因為在台灣，這會被描繪成馬英九對大陸友好政策的全盤失敗。
     
     　　而北京則擔心對馬英九作出的任何讓步都可能讓未來重掌大權的民進黨坐享其成。因此北京會試圖建立一個機制，讓台灣無法獲得永久地位，而需要逐年確認。因此台灣可能受到世界衛生大會的邀請，但這份邀請僅僅是今年的。（譯註：台灣方面29日宣布台灣已經獲邀以觀察員身份出席今年的世界衛生大會）

　　在這樣的情況下，台灣應該接受嗎？這是向前邁進的一步，台灣別無選擇只能接受。

　　儘管兩岸如今正在不太敏感的領域邁出小步幅而經常性的步子，培育關係，但他們必須考慮長期關係的框架。

　　雙方似乎認同需要一項和平協議。但雙方都能接受的和平協議的具體條款可望不可及。北京已經明確表示，它的終極目標是通過「一國兩制」統一。但台灣並不見得接受北京的「一國兩制」。毛澤東說，為統一，中國可以等一百年。

　　現在需要的是，中國領導人要有勇氣接受，北京所設想的統一未必能在一百年內實現。只要台灣由中國人而不是由外國人管治，那又何妨呢？

英文原文：FRANK CHING: When a policy of no's can improve tense ties

      TAIWAN and mainland China signed three agreements in Nanjing over the weekend, the third time agreements have been reached since President Ma Ying-jeou assumed office less than a year ago. The improvement in relations has been dramatic.
The latest agreements double the number of weekly flights between the two sides and turn them from chartered into scheduled flights.

They also include a 12-point agreement on financial services and an accord on legal cooperation, including the extradition of criminal suspects.

The two sides will meet again in the second half of this year, this time in Taiwan. At that time, they will discuss such issues as agriculture and fishing.

The steady improvement in relations over the past year marks a dramatic change from the presidency of Chen Shui-bian, when Taiwan was constantly making provocative mo-ves to underline its independence from China.
The new president has declared a policy of 「three no』s」 during his administration. That is, there will be no declaration of independence, no unification with the mainland and no use of force.

Reassured that Taiwan will not move towards de jure independence, Beijing has been steadily cementing ties with the island, seeking to help alleviate the economic downturn by encouraging tourists to travel across the strait and signing agreements on other economic issues.

There is a tacit understanding that the two sides will discuss easier-to-resolve economic issues before moving on to tackle knotty political problems.

But even where economic issues are concerned, the going is not easy for the Ma administration.

Every move is scrutinised by the opposition, the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party, and charges of selling out are heard virtually every day.

The next hurdle in Taiwan-ChinaMainland ties will come well before the next round of talks.

Next month, the World Health Assembly, the highest decision-making body of the World Health Organisation, will meet in Geneva and Taiwan will again seek to gain observer status.

Hitherto, Beijing has frustrated all of Taiwan』s attempts, even though observers do not have to be sovereign states. But President Hu Jintao has indicated China』s understanding for more international space and has said that the first issue to be tackled is Taiwan』s role in the WHO.

If Taiwan fails to gain observer status this time, the Ma administration will be dealt a devastating blow, since within Taiwan this will be portrayed as the total failure of Ma』s policy of friendship with China.

So keen is Taipei to gain the status that its Foreign Ministry has just issued a position paper in four languages to explain the importance of such a development.

In January, Taiwan was included in the International Health Regulations, but the position paper explains that this is not enough because the IHR mechanism is limited to the monitoring and control of infectious diseases.

On its part, Beijing is apprehensive that any concessions made to Ma may be enjoyed by Taiwan』s political opposition whenever the DPP gains power again.

Hence, Beijing may try to create a mechanism under which Taiwan will not gain a permanent status, but rather one that has to be reconfirmed each year. Thus, it is possible that Taiwan will receive an invitation from the World Health Assembly to participate this year, but the invitation will only be for 2009this year.

In such circumstances, should Taiwan accept? Well, it would be a step forward and Taiwan would have little choice but to accept, even though it may leave a bad taste in the mouth.

And the opposition will certainly make much of China』s continued attempt to keep Taiwan on a short leash, one that it can pull back at any time.

Although both the mainland and Taiwan are now nurturing the relationship by taking small but regular steps forward in less sensitive areas, they have to think about a longer-term framework for their relationship.

That, both sides seem to agree, is a peace agreement. But the exact terms of a peace agreement acceptable to both sides are elusive.

Beijing has made it clear that its ultimate goal is unification using the 「one country, two systems」 formula. But that formula is not acceptable to Taiwan, especially when it sees how that formula is being applied in Hong Kong.
Mao Zedong said China could wait 100 years before unification.

What is needed now is a Chinese leader who has the courage to accept that unification as Beijing envisages it may not happen even in 100 years. And as long as Taiwan is administered by Chinese rather than foreigners, should it really matter?

中國領導人要有勇氣接受，北京所設想的統一未必能在一百年內實現。只要台灣由中國人而不是由外國人管治，那又何妨呢？

2# 笨蛋阿Q

「有條件就上，沒有條件創造條件也要上。」請問這句話是誰講的嗎 ？