流亡藏人人口數據

這是一個非常說明問題的數據. 西方和DL提供的數據都指59年跟隨DL流亡的藏人為8萬到十萬. DL集團公布說每年越境流亡的藏人為2千左右, 而最近的流亡藏人人口普查數據是12萬5千(全世界).

這賬很容易算. 按國內藏人的人口增長率(每年1.3%)和印度的人口增長率(每年1.5%以上)計算, 59年那點人到現在應該是20萬左右. 加上50年每年2千的新流亡共10萬, 共計30萬. 12萬5千就完全不對了. 剩下那麼多哪裡去了?

只有兩種可能. 一是原來的數字全是謊言, 根本沒有那麼多藏人流亡. 二是很多流亡藏人又迴流了. 根據西藏經濟的高速發展, 第二種可能性非常大, 但這很難統計. 如果是這樣, 那麼要不了幾年ZD集團賴以生存的基礎都空了, 對他們來說比DL的高齡威脅還大. 怪不得今年要孤注一擲搞一下.

他們如果讓迴流的話，12萬都是多的，估計都跑空了，留在那個窮山溝里幹什麼？可是藏獨很暴力喲，不會乖乖地讓你走的。

reasonable analysis

問得好！

原帖由 他行車 於 2008-4-4 21:09 發表
這是一個非常說明問題的數據. 西方和DL提供的數據都指59年跟隨DL流亡的藏人為8萬到十萬. DL集團公布說每年越境流亡的藏人為2千左右, 而最近的流亡藏人人口普查數據是12萬5千(全世界).

這賬很容易算. 按國內藏 ...

thanks, we need those numbers for debate.

with slogans and anger onlone we could not fight the powerful western medias.

可惜碰到這樣真的較真兒的問題就沒人出來回答了

有一點看法。。就是如果50年來平均每年2000人，這兩千人也是會增長的。不是說流亡到那裡就不做愛不生後代了。
西藏增長率 1.3%，印度1.5%，取中值，1.4%，所以計算方法如下。

100，000（1959過去的）*（1+1.4%)^50=200400人,

2000*(1.014+1.014^2+1.014^3+1.014^4+.....1.014^50)=2000*(1.014650-1)/(1.014-1)=143429人。  ------（等比數列求和公式，剛剛打電話回去問了我在國內教數學的媽媽，很久沒用都忘了，她老人家說初中三年白教我了，連等比數列這個名稱都忘了，只知道英文名稱，很慚愧。）

所以總共 人口應該大概有200400+143429~=34萬人

不過這個演算法有問題就是。。。
50年前和達賴跑的，很多都是和尚，而且佔了很大一部分，就怕他們說50年前跑的那100000都是和尚和尼姑，擦不出火花的。。

但是如果有人這樣說，就更證明跑出去的老百姓不多，而且計算出來應該沒有每年2000，說明其實沒有太多老百姓跟他，不要整天叫著自己代表西藏。

[ 本帖最後由 oc16chan 於 2008-4-17 17:47 編輯 ]

原帖由 rabbit214 於 2008-4-16 07:10 發表
可惜碰到這樣真的較真兒的問題就沒人出來回答了

呵呵，那些嘮嘮叨叨的唐僧們，蒼蠅們去開碰頭會了

here are some numbers from the "tibet government in exile":

1) roughly 80,000~100,000 followers escaped to dalansala, india, in 1959. let's put 100,000.
2) roughly 2000 tibetans sneaked out and join dalai lama, according to the "tibet government in exile".
3) most recent census for the tibetan exiles (global figure) is roughly around 125,000.

let's assume most of those followers in 1959 were NOT lamas (well, most of those were).

in nowadays tibet, the rate of population growth is 1.3%. for the rate of population growth of india, it is about 1.5% (we don't have the rate of population growth for tibetan exiles). let's use the mean value of 1.4% to calculate the population growth of the tibetan exiles.

1) the population growth from those 100,000 (1959) after the 50 years (1959-2009) should be:

100,000 *（1+1.4%)^50=200400

2) for those 2000 escapees joined dalai every year(so claimed by the "tibet government in exile"), the population growth after 50 years (1959-2009) should be:

2000*(1.014+1.014^2+1.014^3+1.014^4+.....1.014^50)=1*(1.014650-1)/(1.014-1)=143429

so the overall population growth, according to the dalai lama side figure should be:

200400+143429=343,829. let's make it 340,000 so that it would be in favor of the "tibet government in exile".

the numbers above are under assumption that those monks married those nuns.

now the number 125,000 (census by the "tibet government in exile") and the calculated number 343,829 according to the junior high math don't seem to match.

now we have a $1,000 question, where are the problems?

could be:

1) not that many followers as the "tibet government in exile" claimed.
2) the life in abroad for those exiles is so bad that the tibetan exiles actually have negative population growth.

ok any issue with my translation?

[ 本帖最後由 snortbsd 於 2008-4-16 16:16 編輯 ]

聽說西藏有天葬呢！可怕啊！

does anyone has the numbers (census) for nowadays tibet, in china?

[ 本帖最後由 snortbsd 於 2008-4-16 14:10 編輯 ]

few hard facts

1) the Tibetan population in Lhasa administered Tibet has increased from 1.2 million to almost 3 million (year 2000). among the population, over 92.8% are ethnic tibetans.
2) infant mortality has dropped from 43% in 1950 to 0.661% in 2000, life expectancy has risen from 35.5 years in 1950 to 67 in the year 2000.
3) the collection and publishing of the traditional Epic of King Gesar, which is the longest epic poem in the world and had only been handed down orally before.
4) 22,500 km of highways, as opposed to none in 1950.
5) The 1956km Qingzang railway.
6) the general trend of ethnic minorities experiencing significantly higher population growth rates than the majority Han population. Their proportion of the population in China has grown from 6.1% in 1953, to 8.04% in 1990, 8.41% in 2000 and 9.44% in 2005. Recent surveys indicate that the population growth rate for ethnic minorities is about 7 times greater than that for the Han population.

there are a lot of other hard facts, but for those brainwashed westerners, they would careless. i think the most effective data would 1), 2) 3), 6), because those data concern about human life. as for 4) and 5), they would label those activities/achievements as propaganda since those are for the "invasion of tibet" instead of improving the life of people there. well, from those kind of arguments, clearly show the hypocrisy of the western medias. so let's play their games.

one of the tricks of the distortion from the western medias is that they are very good at playing words. they carefully choose words, put the "facts" in a certain way so that they can cleverly create a sort illusion of "facts" for their audience. of course data are boring but factual. it would be hard to lie with data. that is why you don't see that much of data in the western medias. for us, so we should focus on data and let data talk.

[ 本帖最後由 snortbsd 於 2008-4-16 16:10 編輯 ]

原帖由 他行車 於 2008-4-4 21:09 發表
這是一個非常說明問題的數據. 西方和DL提供的數據都指59年跟隨DL流亡的藏人為8萬到十萬. DL集團公布說每年越境流亡的藏人為2千左右, 而最近的流亡藏人人口普查數據是12萬5千(全世界).

這賬很容易算. 按國內藏 ...

hi, 他行車:

do you have the original source of the data (from the "tibet government in exile")? it would be more convincing to quote the original data.

原帖由 snortbsd 於 2008-4-16 16:54 發表


hi, 他行車:

do you have the original source of the data (from the "tibet government in exile")? it would be more convincing to quote the original data.

For the exile part: google "tibetan exile population". The first result should be the good one (GA_Conf07Paljor.doc)

Save this document. They may find the problem and change it. These are liars.