【新視頻】裴敏欣：中國能超過美國么？

裴敏欣在The Chautauqua Institution的演講中提出了有所不同的見解，值得一看：

http://fora.tv/2010/07/16/Minxin_Pei_Is_China_Outcompeting_the_US


【一位觀眾的感想】


Prof. Pei is an entertaining and empathetic speaker. In many ways, the presentation lays out what is becoming a familiar catalogue and litany of the limits to the current model of China』s economic growth and the facile prognosis of China's imminent ascent to premier superpower ascendancy in coming decades. This being said, the presentation is in at least three ways a very useful contribution to a badly needed discussion of the real nature and implications of China's future economic and political development. First is his dismissal of the simplistic economic determinism from plain extrapolation of China's economic growth results over the last 30 years which the speaker brought out effectively. The speaker identifies key environmental, demographic, and other potential impediments to sustaining this previous model of economic growth. Second, the speaker has provided useful insights into the contemporary nature of the "Chinese Communist Party" (quotes are intentional) and the dynamics of its continued legitimacy. Prof. Pei's comparison of potential collapse of the CCP with the end of Indonesia' Suharto regime is intriguing. As is his argument that success of Indonesia's post-Suharto political stability augurs well for a similar aftermath to the CCP. He compares the historical "problem solving" reputation of the USA to what he sees as a pragmatic attitude within the current CCP leadership. Third, Prof. Pei provides an interesting, if arguably optimistic, perspective on the future US-China relationship which is unquestionably the most important bilateral relationship in the 21st century.

I would be interested in hearing other observations on this presentation and the overall topic which, in Prof. Pei's own words, remains "uncertain and interesting".