The presidential campaign 2008

The presidential campaign
總統大選
Return to centre
回歸中間
Jul 3rd 2008
From The Economist print edition

John McCain is veering off to the right-and making things too easy for Barack Obama
約翰麥凱恩正轉向右翼——這讓巴拉克奧巴馬太過輕鬆。



WHEN more than 80% of Americans tell pollsters that they think the country is on the wrong track, and when only 28% of them believe that the president is doing a good job, you don』t need a Karl Rove or a Dick Morris to tell you that the road to the White House involves steering well clear of the incumbent』s policies. So why is John McCain not doing it?
當民調顯示80%的美國人認為國家現在走在錯誤的道路上，當僅有20%的人認為總統幹得不錯時，不需要Karl Rove或Dick Morris這樣的政治專家來告訴你，想要入主白宮應該避開現任總統的政策。那麼，約翰麥凱恩為何不這樣做？

The Republican candidate has always been close to George Bush when it comes to defending two fundamental, if unpopular, points of principle-the Iraq war and free trade. But in recent months Mr McCain has slid to the right on a series of other issues, including tax cuts, offshore drilling, immigration and even torture. This manoeuvring seems insincere and short-sighted.
當談及伊戰和自由貿易這兩個原則性問題時，這位共和黨總統候選人的觀點和喬治布希的態度相近。但最近幾個月麥凱恩先生在其他一系列議題上已經逐漸偏右，包括減稅，離岸石油鑽探，移民甚至虐囚事件。這一舉措似乎缺乏誠意而且目光短淺。

Sincerity is important with Mr McCain. He has been at his most attractive, especially to independents such as this newspaper, when he stands up for issues that he believes in. On the Iraq war, his position has been almost Churchillian: victory at all costs, victory in spite of all terror. Declaring that he would rather lose an election than a war is paradoxically one of the Republican candidate』s most valuable electoral assets. It makes him sound like a commander-in-chief.
誠意對麥凱恩先生非常重要。他的吸引力已至頂峰，尤其是對本報這樣的獨立派而言，只要他能夠堅持己見。在伊拉克戰爭上，他的立場幾乎和丘吉爾一樣：為勝利不惜任何代價，為勝利不畏任何恐懼。他公開宣稱寧願在選舉中失敗，也不願意戰敗。多少有些矛盾，這是麥凱恩在此次選戰中幾個最有價值的籌碼之一。這一態度令他聽著像個三軍統帥。

The same goes for Mr McCain』s support for free-trade agreements. Only a third of the country thinks these are good for America, the lowest figure, alas, in the developed world. But Mr McCain』s position has been clear, consistent and right. As with Iraq, it is his opponent, Barack Obama, who is having to track towards the centre, trying to renounce some of the crowd-pleasing claptrap he uttered in the primaries.
麥凱恩先生對自由貿易協定的支持也是如此。只有三分之一的國民認為這是對美國有利，唉，居然是發達國家中最低的支持率。但麥凱恩先生的立場清晰、一貫並且正確。而他的對手巴拉克奧巴馬在這兩個問題上如今不得不逐漸偏向中立，設法放棄一些他在初選中為討好群眾而做出的承諾。

That this newspaper admires Mr McCain for taking positions it agrees with may seem hardly surprising. Yet he still maintains some of his allure when he takes the wrong course, but does so plainly out of principle. His support for the embargo on Cuba and his opposition to gun control at home may be wrong-headed, but they are genuine. His League of Democracies and his overheated rhetoric about Iran are misguided, but they are consistent with his political history. In a world short of conviction politicians, Mr McCain』s Straight Talk Express has its charms.
本報對麥凱恩先生能堅持己見非常欣賞，這或許不讓人感到意外。儘管他走錯了方向，但仍保留了一些吸引人之處，不過已經明顯背離原則了。他支持對古巴實行禁運，反對家庭槍支管制，這也許有些執迷不悟，但至少出自一片真心。他鼓吹民主國家聯盟，過分誇大伊朗的威脅的做法是錯誤的，但這些都與他的以往的風格一致。在一個缺乏鮮明立場政客的世界，麥凱恩先生坦率直言有著獨特的魅力。

But not when the straight talker starts saying things it is very hard to imagine that he remotely believes in. It was a bad omen last year when this freewheeling western conservative in the Reagan mould went off to court the intolerant Christian right. And recently, the flip-flops have come rapidly. Once a vigorous opponent of Mr Bush』s tax cuts, he says he wants not only to continue but also to extend them. Once a champion of greenery, he has called not only for an expensive petrol-tax holiday (something Mr Obama cleverly resisted) but also for a resumption of drilling off America』s coast. Once a supporter of closing down Guantánamo Bay, he recently criticised the Supreme Court for daring to suggest that inmates deserve the right of habeas corpus. He has edged to the right on two other areas where he used to be hated by his party』s conservatives as a dangerous maverick: on torture (he won』t rule out water-boarding) and immigration reform (he says fix the border first, which will take an eternity).
但當這位直言者開始說一些很難相信是他以前會贊同的事情時，就完全變味了。當去年這位來自西部如里根總統一樣隨心所欲的保守派跑去刻意討好他本不能容忍的基督教右派時，這種糟糕的徵兆就有了苗頭。最近，這種反覆無常來的很快。他曾經強烈反對布希先生的減稅政策，現在說不但要延續還得擴大。他曾經最熱心環保，現在不但呼籲推行代價高昂燃油稅減免期（奧巴馬先生聰明的表示反對），而且要求解除美國海岸石油鑽探禁令。他曾經支持關閉關塔那摩監獄，但最近又抨擊最高法院提出維護犯人人身保護權的建議。他在刑訊和移民改革兩個議題上也逐漸偏右，為此他曾飽受共和黨的保守派的詬病，被看做危險的異類。可如今他宣稱不會反對水刑，還說首先要確定清楚國境線，這可是永遠做不完的事情。

Don』t be spooked, John
約翰，不要環顧左右
It is true that America still has more conservatives than liberals. But the Republican Party has known for a long time that Mr McCain is not precisely one of them-and they still chose him anyway. Conservatives were smart enough to see that his appeal to independents and floating voters, who make up a larger proportion of the electorate than either of the two main parties, is their only hope of retaining the White House.
沒錯，美國的保守派依然比自由派多。但共和黨人很久就知道麥凱恩先生並不是他們的死忠。儘管如此，他們還是選擇了他。保守派不會沒看到他正在討好無黨派者和立場不定的選民，這兩類人總數佔全體選民比例比兩黨單獨的份額都大，他們也是共和黨保住白宮唯一的希望。

American elections classically involve a two-step: the candidate runs to the extreme in the primary, then back to the centre for the general. Mr Obama is doing that. Mr McCain seems to be doing precisely the opposite. It is a mistake.
美國總統大選一般包括兩個階段：參選人在初選時走極端路線，到了全國普選就回歸中間。奧巴馬先生正在這樣做，而麥凱恩先生似乎正好相反。這是錯誤的。