Russell Skelton
June 3, 2008
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion ... -20080602-2kuw.html
Kevin Rudd's four-day visit to Tokyo will be a major diplomatic test.
陸克文對東京的四天訪問將是一個大的外交考驗
IT is hard to imagine why Kevin Rudd decided to visit Beijing before Tokyo. Did he seriously think perceptions didn't matter in a region where historically they have counted for so much? In Tokyo it is impossible to avoid Japan's preoccupation with its increasingly assertive neighbour. It was big news when Japanese forces were permitted to stage relief flights into Sichuan province disaster areas, passing over Nanking, where Japan's imperial armies committed atrocities against Chinese civilians in the 1930s.
人們難以揣測為什麼陸克文決定先訪問北京再去東京。他是否認真想過這種猜想難道不會對該地區造成任何影響嗎？中日雙方歷來都很看重這類問題。對東京來說，這是不可避免地要凝神關注它日益自信的鄰居。日本軍隊被允許運送救援物資飛經南京上空進入四川災區稱得上是一個大新聞，30年代日本皇軍曾在南京殘忍地對中國平民犯下罪行。
Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda used Beijing's approval of the flights to talk earnestly about the strength and confidence of the Sino-Japan relationship. Listening to Fukuda, it seemed as though ancient animosities, including concerns over disputed territories and grievances about war crimes, were a thing of the past. That appears to be little more than wishful thinking. Unease about China's ambitions, real or imagined, dominates the national conversation. A chance encounter in a Ginza department store with a Japanese foreign ministry translator led without prompting to warnings about the threat China posed not just to Japan, but to Australia and the region.
日本首相福田康夫利用北京對飛行允許之際，非常認真地談及中日關係的力量和相互信任。聽福田之言，那些歷史仇恨包括領土爭端和對戰爭罪犯的不滿，就像是一樁沒有關係的事了一樣。那顯然是有一些痴心妄想。對中國野心的憂慮，或是真實的或是想像的，左右著國家間的對話。一次在銀座一家百貨商店與一名日本外務省翻譯的偶遇，（讓我）在毫無思想準備下就聽到了對中國威脅的警告，這種威脅不僅僅是針對日本，也針對澳大利亞和這個地區。
At the opening of the exhibition of indigenous painter Emily Kame Kngwarreye at the Tokyo Art Centre a few days later, a well-connected shosha (trading house) executive told me Rudd's decision to visit Beijing before Tokyo was an inexplicable error of judgement. He assured me that behind the diplomatic chatter, Japan's foreign ministry was fuming and bewildered. Rudd, the celebrated Sinophile, had ignored 50 years of trade, a growing security relationship and mutual democratic interests to ingratiate himself with Beijing. Rudd clearly miscalculated in thinking Japan could wait until next month's G8 summit.
在東京藝術中心舉行的原住民畫家Emily Kame Kngwarreye展覽開幕式後幾天，一名出身名門的綜合商社（貿易公司）主管告訴我陸克文決定在來東京前先訪問北京是一個莫名其妙的判斷錯誤。他向我保證在喋喋不休的外交辭令背後，日本外務省一定是惱火和困惑的。大名鼎鼎的中國通陸克文，置（日澳）50年的交往，一個發展中的安保夥伴關係和共同的民主價值於不顧，而親自向北京討好。陸克文認為能等到下個月的西方八國峰會後再考慮日本顯然是判斷錯誤。
Nobody is suggesting Australia's relationship with Japan is in tatters, but it is looking rather ragged as Australia, Japan and Washington scramble to adjust to a resurgent China. When Rudd arrives in Japan on Sunday for a four-day visit - the longest by an Australian prime minister - his diplomatic skills will be thoroughly tested. He is likely to be drowned in a wave of pomp and ceremony, a typically Japanese way of reminding him of the gravity of his oversight.
沒人認為澳大利亞與日本的關係就一塌糊塗了，但是現在看起來是相當糟糕，目前澳大利亞、日本和華盛頓爭先調整與重新崛起的中國的關係。當陸克文本周日抵達日本開始為期四天訪問——澳大利亞總理對日本最長時間的訪問時，他的外交技巧將要面臨徹底的考驗。估計他會淹沒在各種盛典和歡迎儀式的浪潮中，這是對他自己嚴重疏忽的典型的日本式提醒。
Japanese sensitivities could not be more acute. With an economic growth rate of around 12% a year, China is the world's fastest-growing economy. By 2041 it will become the largest, displacing Japan and the United States. China recently replaced Japan as Australia's major trading partner, although exports to Japan remain significantly higher. With economic power comes political ambition and strategic confidence. Ironically, it was probably such an awareness that convinced Rudd to visit Beijing and Washington first up. China is a serial contributor to regional nervousness and Rudd as an incoming leader was seeking reassurance.
日本人的敏感性不可能不這麼敏銳。中國借每年12％的經濟增長率成為了世界上增長最快的經濟體。到2041年它將取代日本和美國成為世界最大的經濟體。儘管澳大利亞出口日本依然相當高，但是中國進來已經取代日本成為澳大利亞最大的貿易夥伴。伴隨著經濟動力帶來的政治野心和戰略信心，具有諷刺意味的是，可能就憑這樣一個認識說服了陸克文首先訪問北京和華盛頓。中國是一系列地區緊張的製造者，做為一名新任的領導人陸克文卻看到了安心。
When alerted to his mistake, Rudd was urged to include Japan in his first overseas visit. What happened next is unclear. Perhaps he thought the relationship with Japan was robust enough to withstand a little humility? Since then a steady stream of cabinet ministers - seven in as many months - have beat a path to Tokyo. Rudd has upgraded his own visit from two to four days, making it longer and more significant than any by John Howard. He will return for the G8, making it two visits in four weeks.
當警示了他的錯誤后，陸克文被力促把日本加入到他的第一次海外訪問行程中。下一次還會發生什麼（錯誤）不得而知。可能他認為（澳大利亞）與日本的關係足夠強壯小小的謙遜不算什麼？自那以後內閣部長們前赴後繼造訪了日本，幾個月里先後有七位前往。陸克文也將他自己的訪問由兩天升級到四天，使得訪問時間比約翰•霍華德以前任何次訪問都要時間長，顯得更有意義。他還將重返日本去參加西方八國峰會，這樣在四周內兩次造訪。
So what will the Fukuda Government be looking for from Rudd? Long-term assurances on access to Australia's energy and resources in the face of China's extraordinary appetite for both will be important. There will also be pressure to extend the 2007 joint security declaration agreement between Japan, Australia and the US. Of less concern will be the Japan-Australia Free Trade Agreement, where decades-old arguments over access to Japan's domestic markets continue to be a stumbling block.
那麼福田政府希望從陸克文那裡得到什麼呢？面對中國超乎尋常的大胃口，（日本）在澳大利亞能源和資源上獲得長期保證都將是很重要的（議題）。另外要對推動擴展2007年簽署的美日澳之間的共同安保協議。日澳之間的自由貿易協定將會不那麼關注，這個打開日本國內市場的幾十年老問題仍然障礙重重。
Although Australian agricultural exports - especially rice - are no threat these days because of the drought and climate change, Japan's negotiators worry that any concessions made to Australia may provide the US with a wedge to force open its domestic markets. Progress will continue to be painfully and deliberately slow.
儘管澳大利亞農業出口，特別是大米出口，因近來的乾旱和氣候變化不再是威脅，但是日本的談判者擔心任何給澳大利亞的讓步，會讓美國擠進來迫使它開放國內市場。（談判）進展依舊痛苦和故意放緩。
Whaling will be high on the agenda, but it is difficult to see how the issue can be resolved. Japan's right-wing nationalist groups have demonstrated outside the Australian embassy, accusing Canberra of trying to dictate what Japan can and cannot do. Australia on the other hand has green groups taking ever more extreme action on the high seas. Both sides know scientific whaling is a fiction and both appear determined to leave the issue to be fought out in the corridors of the International Whaling Commission.
捕鯨仍將高掛在議程上，不過很難看到此事能有所解決。日本的右翼民族主義團體在澳大利亞大使館前抗議，指責堪培拉試圖支配日本可以做什麼不可以做什麼。另一方面澳大利亞綠色團體在公海上採取了更為極端的行動。雙方都知道科學捕鯨是一個借口，並且雙方都決定把此事放到國際捕鯨委員會決策場所去解決爭端。
But the fundamental issue of mutual concern is how best to manage and accommodate China's evolution, and that will be a continuing conversation. Japan has already strengthened its ties with democratic India as a counter to Beijing's influence in Asia. China has been a key player in urging moderation in North Korea, but there are few signs that economic growth and middle-class affluence will lead to a political convergence and democratic maturity.
不過（日澳）共同關心的基本問題是如何最好地應對和適應中國的發展變化，這將是一個持續的對話過程。日本已經加強了它與民主印度的紐帶，以做為控制北京在亞洲影響力的籌碼。中國雖然已經在敦促朝鮮緩和上扮演了關鍵角色，但是一些跡象顯示經濟的增長和中產階級的富裕將促成（中國）政治融合和民主成熟。
Recent violence in Tibet and arrogant management of the Olympic torch relay suggest that China's Communist Party elite is not about to embark down the reform path. Suppression of dissent, heavy-handed human rights violations and even basic restrictions on free speech including the internet and other media are reminders that Japan and Australia have far more in common as democracies anchoring north and south Asia at a time when the world's largest authoritarian power asserts itself.
最近西藏的暴力和奧運火炬傳遞中的傲慢運作，標明中國共產黨的精英們不打算著手減慢改革的步伐。對異議的壓制和嚴厲的人權侵犯，甚至限制基本的言論自由，包括對網際網路和其他媒體的限制，都提醒著日本和澳大利亞，每次當這個世界上最大的獨裁權利顯示自己的力量時，（我們）做為鎖定在北亞和南亞的民主國家有著許多的共同點。
Russell Skelton, a contributing editor, is a former Japan correspondent for The Age. He returned yesterday from a visit to Tokyo.
Russell.skelton@mac.com
Russell Skelton，報社撰稿主筆，《The Age》原駐日本特派記者。他昨天剛從日本訪問回來。
Russell.Skelton@mac.com
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