各種地緣政治理論

有些地緣政治國際關係理論誤導某些主權國家的戰略政治決策  Some geopolitical international relations theories mislead  strategic political decisions of some sovereign states


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Influence_of_Sea_Power_upon_History

這位馬漢先生講了，因為世界是被海洋包圍的，一個國家只有有了出海口才可以跟外界相聯繫，才能呼吸。物質財富是國家強大的基礎，而為了積累財富，一個國家就必須生產和在世界各地進行貿易。海洋是自然提供的偉大公路。一個國家想要成為世界強國, 必須能在海洋上自由行動. 任何國家或聯盟如果充分控制了公海，就能控制世界各地的貿易和財富。怪不得英國有強大的海軍，美國有遍布世界的海軍，現在中國海軍也在興起。

This Mr. Mahan said, because the world is surrounded by the sea, a country can only communicate with the outside world if it has an estuary to breathe. Material wealth is the strong foundation of the country, and in order to accumulate wealth, a country must produce and trade around the world. The ocean is a great road that nature provides. A country that wants to be a world power must be able to move freely on the ocean. Any country or alliance that controls the high seas can control trade and wealth around the world. No wonder the UK has a strong navy, the United States has a navy all over the world, and now the Chinese navy is also emerging.

https://wapbaike.baidu.com/item/%E9%99%86%E6%9D%83%E8%AE%BA
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Geographical_Pivot_of_History
http://www.wikiwand.com/zh-cn/哈爾福德·麥金德

麥金德把地球分成三個區域. 中心樞紐，比如俄國東歐. 包圍中心樞紐的內新月帶，比如歐洲一帶一直到日本. 外新月帶，非洲澳大利亞美洲。在歐洲工業革命以前，去歐洲的擴張都是從亞洲過來的，亞洲是世界最先進文明的所在地，那時候大航海要去的是中國。如果沒有工業革命和先進的航海技術，沒有伊斯蘭世界對絲綢之路的封鎖，陸權才是比海權更重要的。如果現在在大陸上的鐵路公路網修建發達起來，佔地理位置便捷的國家，比如捷克土耳其，是比那些靠海的國家更能發達起來的！試想一下，如果大陸可以提供所有需要的自然資源，生產和巨大的市場，為什麼要用船運呢？四通八達的大陸內地是不是更繁華？

McKinde divides the earth into three regions. The central hub, such as Russia and Eastern Europe. The inner crescent belt that surrounds the central hub, such as Europe, all the way to Japan. The outer crescent belt, Africa, Australia and the Americas. Before the European Industrial Revolution, the expansion to Europe was from Asia. Asia was the place of the world's most advanced civilization. At that time, the big voyage was going to China. Without the industrial revolution and advanced navigation technology, and without the blockade of the Silk Road by the Islamic world, land rights are more important than sea power. If the railway and road network on the mainland is now developed, countries with convenient geographical locations, such as Czech Republic, will be more developed than those that rely on the sea! Imagine if the mainland can provide all the natural resources, production and huge markets needed, why has it had to be shipped by ships on ocean? Is the interior of the mainland extending in all directions more prosperous?

https://wapbaike.baidu.com/pic/卡爾·豪斯霍費爾/865742/0/48540923dd54564e38752976b2de9c82d1584f69?bk_fr=view_img
http://blog.sina.cn/dpool/blog/s/blog_b2b8e8d80101bvr2.html

豪斯霍費爾的以陸權論為基礎的全球泛區觀，把世界分成四個區域。泛美區是美洲大陸，泛亞區以日本為核心東亞澳大利亞。泛歐區以德國為核心歐洲非洲。泛俄區，以俄羅斯為中心，一直到南亞。這些理論深深地影響著大國領導人的決策，所以，日本會經營大東亞共榮圈，德國會和義大利合作向非洲擴展，向俄國進軍，企圖佔據控制中心樞紐地帶稱霸全球。

Haushofer』s global pan-regional view based on land rights theory divides the world into four regions. The Pan-American region is the American continent, and the Pan-Asian region is dominated by Japan，East Asia and Australia. The Pan-European region is centered on Germany and Europe. Pan-European region, with Russia as the center, all the way to South Asia. These theories deeply influence the decision-making of the leaders of the great powers. Therefore, Japan will operate a large East Asian co-prosperity circle. Germany will cooperate with Italy to expand into Africa, and march toward Russia in an attempt to occupy the hub of the control center to dominate the world.

https://wapbaike.baidu.com/item/尼古拉斯·斯皮克曼
http://m.nfcmag.com/article/6621.html

斯皮克曼的邊緣地區理論，是對麥金德的陸權論的補充。「誰支配著邊緣地區，誰就控制著歐亞大陸，誰支配著歐亞大陸，誰就掌握世界的命運。」 所以柯林頓時期，美國經濟騰飛，有了雄厚資本, 剛一換上小布希，就迫不及待地進行伊拉克戰爭。二戰以後的冷戰，美國在全球的軍事部署，都跟這個理念有關。

Spicman's theory of the marginal region is a complement to McKinda's theory of land rights. "Whoever dominates the fringe area, whoever controls Eurasia, who dominates Eurasia, will control the destiny of the world." So during the Clinton period, the US economy took off and had strong capital. Just changed to Bush it couldn』t wait to wage an Iraq war. The Cold War after World War II and the US military deployment in the world are all related to this concept.

http://www.wikiwand.com/zh-sg/地緣政治學
http://www.siis.org.cn/UploadFiles/file/20171115/201706006%20張曉通.pdf
Saul B. Cohen的地緣政治理論，認為世界是多級的，強調四個層次的動態平衡。
Saul B. Cohen's geopolitical theory holds that the world is multi-level, emphasizing the dynamic balance of four levels.

http://www.wikiwand.com/zh-sg/文明衝突論

亨廷頓的「文明的衝突」. 世界上有九大文明類型：西方文明，儒家文明，日本文明、伊斯蘭文明，印度文明，斯拉夫東正教文明，拉丁美洲文明，非洲文明。未來最重大的衝突，將會在各大文明的斷層線上爆發。西方應促進體系內成員的合作與團結，要把東歐、拉美融入西方社會，要和日本，俄羅斯合作，西方必須維護保護自身所需的經濟和軍事實力。這就是過去幾十年，為什麼美國向拉丁美洲開放大量移民，而排斥拒絕從亞洲來的高素質的人才，明顯是在打壓伊斯蘭和儒家文明。也是為什麼西歐對匈牙利捷克大量投資，美國在東歐北歐部署導彈防禦系統的原因.

Huntington's "Clash of Civilizations". There are nine types of civilizations in the world: Western civilization, Confucian civilization, Japanese civilization, Islamic civilization, Indian civilization, Slavic Orthodox civilization, Latin American civilization, African civilization. The most important conflicts of the future will erupt in the transitional level of major civilizations. The West should promote the cooperation and solidarity of its members in the system. It must integrate Eastern Europe and Latin America into Western society. It must cooperate with Japan and Russia. The West must maintain the economic and military strength needed to protect itself. This is why in the past few decades, why the United States has opened up a large number of immigrants to Latin America, and rejects the high-quality talents from Asia, apparently suppressing Islam and Confucian civilization. It is also why Western Europe invests heavily in the Hungarian Czech Republic and the United States deploys a missile defense system in Eastern Europe and Northern Europe.

http://www.wikiwand.com/zh-sg/大棋盤
布勒金斯基提倡的美國為主的單級論。
Bremenkinsky advocates a single-level theory dominated by the United States.

http://www.wikiwand.com/zh-sg/大外交
基辛格縱橫世界外交幾十年，他提倡多極論。
Kissinger has been advocating multi-polarism for decades in world diplomacy.