日本時報: 奇迹中國步入而立之年

30年來中國實踐了人類歷史上最為偉大的經濟騰飛，使國家從貧窮和混亂中擺脫出來並搖身成為世界先進經濟體之一。因為令人吃驚的發展速度而被稱做「經濟奇迹」聽上去頗為誘人，但實際上三十年來的成就是中國計劃、改革創新以及謹慎趨同資本主義的結果。今天的中國需要應對諸多挑戰，既有現存的——經濟發展的不平衡使得很大一部分中國人無法分享改革成功的果實，也有新來臨的：當前的經濟危機以及因能源短缺和氣候變化產生的新的限制要求中國具備與1978年一樣大膽的新的思維。

     三十年前的中國前途未卜，文化大革命讓中華民族的靈魂飽受愴傷，后毛澤東時代左右陣營展開權力爭奪。1978年12月8日老謀深算的倖存者鄧小平成為中國共產黨的領袖，在三中全會上提出要改革開放。當時提出的小心翼翼的起始步驟包括小規模的私人承包田，這對毛澤東時代公社模式的工農業無異於一次顛覆。農民的積極性得到了激發，收入在上繳部分之後剩餘的都歸個人所有。兩年後鄧小平選擇了南方珠江三角洲當時一個寧靜的小漁村深圳作為第一個允許外商投資以及出口製造業的經濟特區，自此中國走上了繁榮之路。

     改革開放的成果令人震驚。自1978年來經濟年均增長達到9.8%，一半以上的年份里是以兩位數的增長率在發展。今天的中國已經發展成世界第三（或第四）大經濟體。年人均收入從1978年的380元提高到2007年的19000元；每天不足一美元的絕對貧困人口從8億減少到1千多萬（其中數百萬的生活標準在每天1-2美元）；1978年大多數中國人追求「四大件」——自行車、收音機、縫紉機和手錶，今天幾乎每個中國家庭都有一台電視機，1千5百萬家庭擁有私家車。擁有房產的人越來越多，這個國家到處都是尋找市場機會的人，他們的熱情（和緊張）程度堪比東京、紐約和倫敦的投資客。

     改革的進程並非一帆風順。絕望的左派發起抵抗運動，他們既不願看到社會主義理想落空，也不願看到過去由他們特權擁有的好處改由今天成功的資本家們所享有；腐敗蔓生加上驚人的環境破壞——實際上是人盡皆知的中國的黑暗面，而收入的差距之大在一定程度上可算世界上最為糟糕。今天的中國在全球經濟滑坡中顯得忐忑不安，中共改革派的關注焦點顯然不在政治上，而是如何維持鞏固其執政之基的經濟增長。

     中國的改革政策有兩句座右銘。第一句是鄧小平的名言——「管它白貓黑貓，能抓老鼠就是好貓」，表明中國選擇了實用主義而非意識形態作為發展的指導方針；第二句是中國「摸著石頭過河」，說的是中國的改革開放沒有先例，也沒有任何可供借鑒的經驗。

     中共領導人胡錦濤在慶祝改革開放30周年的講話中語重心長提醒國家面臨著困難的時刻。經濟增長率由2007年的11.4%降至今年的9%，明年可能降至8%以下。8%的增長率被視為就業者能順利在市場中尋找到工作的分界線，一旦增長率跌破8%，官方將繃緊神經。胡錦濤在講話中指出經濟發展的當務之急是實現「長期的和平和穩定」並警示「沒有穩定什麼事情都做不好」。

     面對低迷的出口、工廠關閉和大量的失業中國通過了一項4萬億元的刺激計劃，旨在推進亟需的國內基礎建設。外國市場一直是中國賴以刺激經濟的引擎，如今國外經濟在低迷中掙扎，中國必須刺激國內需求以促進經濟增長。

     這種改變只是一方面，中國還將作出更大的經濟方向調整。經濟增長和財富積累點燃消費者熱情的同時中國成為了引起氣候變化的溫室氣體的排放大國。不良的空氣和水以及受污染的產品成為數十萬中國人過早死亡的原因之一。一位中國環保官員承認「中國改革開放30年來取得了西方國家100多年的經濟成果，但也在30年間造成了西方國家100多年的環境污染」。

     在慶祝改革和發展30周年的時候提出這種嚴肅的氣候問題似乎有些不合時宜，但中國的官員們明白前途中的挑戰。如果能拿出與改革開放相同的關注力和決心，我們有信心他們將解決這些問題。

【原文】
It has been 30 years since China embarked on the greatest economic experiment in human history. In that time, the country has emerged from poverty and chaos to become one of the leading economic powers. It is tempting to call China's astounding growth an economic miracle, but the trajectory of the last three decades has been the product of planning, innovation and carefully tended capitalism. Today, China confronts many of the old challenges — growth has been uneven, leaving many Chinese untouched by the fruits of success — and new ones too. The current economic crisis and new constraints imposed by energy shortages and climate change demand new thinking every bit as bold as that embraced in 1978.

Three decades ago, China's future was uncertain. The Cultural Revolution was a blight on the nation's soul and left and right battled for supremacy in the post-Mao world. On Dec. 8, 1978, the wily survivor Deng Xiaoping was named head of the Communist Party, and he told the Third Plenum that the country should embrace reform and opening. At that time, the first cautious steps included small-scale private farming, a reversal of Mao's communal agriculture and industry. Farmers' energies — and earnings — were cut loose, left for themselves to enjoy. Two years later, Deng picked Shenzhen, a then quiet fishing village in the Pearl River Delta in southern China, as the site of the first Special Economic Zone to allow foreign investment and export manufacturing. With that, the boom began.

The results have been striking. The economy has grown at an average rate of 9.8 percent since 1978; for more than half that time, growth has been in double digits. Today, China is either the third- or fourth-largest economy in the world. Annual per capita income has gone from 380 yuan in 1978 to about 19,000 yuan ($2,760) in 2007. The number of Chinese living in absolute poverty — less than $1 a day — has dropped from 800 million to more than 10 million. (Millions more live on $1 to $2 a day.) In 1978, the much-sought "four big things" consisted of a bicycle, a radio, a sewing machine and a watch. Today, almost every Chinese home has one television and 15 million families have private cars. Home ownership is on the rise and the country is filled with market watchers who match the enthusiasm (and nervousness) of investors in Tokyo, New York or London.

The process has not been smooth. There have been rear-guard battles fought by leftists who despair of the loss of socialist ideals — and the loss of perks that were once theirs by right but now often belong to successful capitalists. Corruption is rampant, environmental destruction is breathtaking — literally, for anyone who knows the murky Chinese skies — and the income disparities are some of the worst in the world. Today, the country looks with trepidation at the global slowdown, and the Chinese Communist Party, whose reformist inclinations are not evident when it comes to politics, is now focused on sustaining the growth that is the foundation of its legitimacy.

Chinese policy has been guided by two maxims. The first is Deng's famous quip that "it doesn't matter if the cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice." In other words, pragmatism, not ideology, would be China's compass. The second rule is that the country would "cross the river while feeling for the stones." An experiment of this nature is unprecedented; there is no guide.

Celebrating 30 years of progress, Chinese Communist Party leader Hu Jintao warned that the country faces difficult times. Economic growth has slowed from 11.4 percent in 2007 to 9 percent this year, and next year could drop below 8 percent, the level at which new market entrants readily find jobs. When growth dips below the 8 percent mark, officials get nervous. In his speech, Mr. Hu noted that economic development is critical to achieving "enduring peace and stability" and warned that "nothing can be done without stability."

In the face of declining exports, factory closings and massive layoffs, Beijing has adopted a 4 trillion yuan stimulus plan that aims to boost spending on much-needed domestic infrastructure. China has depended on foreign markets to fire its economic engine. Now, with overseas economies battling the downturn, China must stimulate domestic demand to generate growth.

This change is only part of a broader economic redirection. While growth and wealth have fired consumers, China is already the leading emitter of greenhouse gases, which contribute to climate change. Hundreds of thousands of Chinese die prematurely as a result of bad air and water and contaminated products. One of China's environmental officials conceded that "China's reform and opening has achieved in 30 years the economic gains of more than 100 years in the West — yet more than 100 years of environmental pollution in the West have materialized in 30 years in China."

This grim warming seems out of place amid the celebration of 30 years of growth and transformation. But Chinese officials understand the challenges ahead. If they can muster the same focus and determination to tackle these problems, we are confident that they will solve them.





來源：theJapanTimes

http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/ed20081228a1.html

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