日本怕什麼？ 怕我與中共交好

本怕什麼？ 怕我與中共交好

【聯合報╱記者范凌嘉】 2008.06.16 03:39 am

  
聯合號事件震驚台灣社會，立委、名嘴與行政官員相互呼應的激情演出，加入了民族主義與民粹的要素，反而讓事件失焦。在現實的國際政治場域中，情緒性反應只會治絲益棼，與日本過招應回歸專業，分短中長程進行層次井然的交涉。

這起海上糾紛涉及多個面向，本質上是「人權」問題，不過因涉及敏感的「漁權」與「主權」爭議，變得複雜難解。漁權或主權都非一時三刻可解，政府應先從比較明確的人權角度切入。

一艘無害通過的民船竟遭大型武裝艦艇蓄意撞沉，事發後船上人員又遭蠻橫留置，在異鄉遭人強逼取供；日本政府所做所為，都不符合基本人權的要求，這不是文明世界的遊戲規則，要求日本就此道歉是理所當然。

但目前的狀況是，日本海上保安廳雖坦承過失，但只願對船長表達「遺憾」，與我方要求的「道歉」還有一段差距。遺憾與道歉或許在情感上都能稍許寬慰被害者，但在法律與外交的意義上卻判若雲泥，政府絕不能輕易接受這種策略性的「善意」，否則必有遠憂。

治本解決之道，不能不回到談判桌上。中期來講，外交部應借力使力，迫使日本回到漁權談判，確保我國漁民權益；長期而言，仍要伺機進行主權談判，不能因一時的外交短視而對主權讓步，損及長遠國家利益。

日本與台灣國力相去甚遠，但情勢並非全然對我不利，從中日台戰略三角來看，日本雖與中國逐步改善關係，但速度與強度遠不及台灣與中國的修好，這對日本仍有壓力；釣魚台是日本可能同時得罪兩岸的議題，稍一不慎將使日本在戰略三角被孤立，只要拿出智慧善用外交槓桿，台灣仍有以小搏大的空間。

I support the Taiwan's behavior to get back our islands.

However, the recent behavior of Taiwan means more than that.
Mainland just signed something with Japan, which somehow is to share the resource under the water. USA definitely is a part of it. Taiwan is not.
That's the final reason why President Ma even dare use the militrary for the islands. Taiwan wants to claim his cake.

Mainland is digging the oil under the chinese easten sea. However, do you think the 100% oil will belong to China? No. 50% should belong to USA, I guess. That is the quite possible reason why Japanese army only dare to look but fight. I did not say anything like law, rules, or "it should be". That's damn shit. If Japan can rob us or can stop digging, it will do without hesitation, regardless the international contrasts.

Now, I guess in the new contrast, China, Japan and USA will share the oil. Nothing for Taiwan.

Maybe, I am wrong. Maybe, President Ma just did it for the soverign claim.  I hope Taiwan and Mainland can share the oil, nothing for USA, especially for Japan. Maybe, politics is too dirty for us to imagine.

[ 本帖最後由 青海浮雲 於 2008-6-17 01:29 編輯 ]