CHOICES OF LU』S ARTICLES (12) 呂 氏 精 選 (12) 精準預報與汶川漏報

CHOICES OF LU』S ARTICLES (12) 呂 氏 精 選 (12) 精準預報與汶川漏報


Prof. Dajiong Lu』s PRECISE EARTHQUAKE PREDICTIONS Contrast Sharply with FAILED PREDICTION for Japan and Wenchuan 「HUGE EARTHQUAKES」 Made by Japanese and Chinese Experts 呂大炯對地震的精準預報與日本中國地震專家對日本及汶川巨震的漏報形成鮮明的對照

Prof. Dajiong Lu was waiting for more than 30 years and finally saw that Japanese and Chinese experts of earthquake prediction suffered a crushing defeat facing Huge Earthquakes. Prof. Lu had anticipated their thus defeat 30 years ago. The reason was that these seismologists made a series mistakes on theory, method and technology of earthquake prediction, so that the result of Japan and Wenchuan Huge Earthquake brought Japanese and Chinese people miserable experience.
What effect could the Early warning System of earthquake made by Japan seismologists bring into facing this kind of Huge Earthquake? Could this kind of system control or close Nuclear Reactor before strong earthquake? Could this kind of system inform ships, airplanes and trains to be evacuated quickly from epicenter facing strong earthquake? Could this kind of system inform civilians to succeed in eluding the strong earthquake?  etc. The answer is no. The pitiful sight caused by Japan Huge Earthquake had been lively shown at TV. Here are not any more statements.
As for China seismologists are better than Japan seismologists. Let me introduce one or two which I well know.
The prime of the 2007, Prof. Dajiong Lu came back Beijing and saw Prof. Zhang Minhou who is a seismologist retired from State Seismological  bureau. Prof. Lu knew that Prof. Zhang is an outstanding research fellow on earthquake prediction. At that time, Zhang told Lu: 「A large earthquake would occur about 100 km ambit around Chengdu city. I reported to my chief already, but they said I am a lunatic.」 Zhang continued to say: 「 I predicted 2 to 3 times for the period of earthquake occurrence, but no earthquake occurred.」 Zhang said further: 」The epicenter area of earthquake predicted was obtained from local anomaly of terrestrial magnetism; The dangerous period of the coming earthquake was figured out from magnetic storms, because magnetic storm is a kind of triggering factor. But a certain dangerous period figured out from magnetic storms was not sure to be the earthquake occurrence period of the future epicenter area obtained according to local terrestrial magnetism anomaly」.
According to the prediction method used by Zhang, once a prediction was made, the earthquake didn』t happen; the second prediction was made, the earthquake still didn』t happen……When the earthquake was really coming, seismologists did not dare to make prediction again, because they feared to make another false report. After a large earthquake occurred, they regretted that they didn』t predict before earthquake. The problem was that: If the earthquake prediction was made before earthquake at this time, the leader was not a certainty to have confidence to announce this report, because experts already shouted 「Wolves are coming!」 many times. Regarding Prof. Geng Qingguo, the 「HERO」 of earthquake prediction in China, I don』t mention him here because he made too many false reports!
Prof. Zhang Minhou was very curious why Prof. Dajiong Lu only needed to predict once and got success, furthermore the time 「window」 of prediction could be such narrow! Where is the know-how? Prof. Lu told Zhang if you read my book from top to bottom and understand well, you will suddenly see the light.
Of course, Prof. Zhang used the method (The coming epicenter area was obtained from local anomaly of terrestrial magnetism) not only in the aspect of time but also in the aspect of epicenter to bring some false reports.
It would be the best if Zhang』s and Lu』s method could use together. In the past, Prof. Lu wanted to get more reliable precursor means, especially the Data of terrestrial magnetism and magnetic storms, but it was not possible.
(Note: Wenchuan is about 100 km far away from Chengdu.)
Please make comments or criticisms if this text had inappropriate aspect.


呂大炯等了三十多年，終於看到了日本地震學家及中國地震學家在巨大地震面前的慘敗。呂大炯在三十多年前就已經預料到了他們的這種慘敗。原因是這些地震學家在地震預報理論，方法及技術等方面犯了一系列的錯誤，從而釀成了日本人民及中國人民在大地震面前的凄慘遭遇。
日本地震學家研製的早期預警系統在這種巨震面前到底發揮了多大的作用？這種系統能夠在強震到來前關閉並有效地控制核反應堆嗎？這種系統能夠使輪船，飛機，火車等大型交通工具在大震前迅速撤離嗎？這種系統能夠在大震前通知震中地區的居民有效地躲避嗎？等等，等等。回答是「不能」。日本巨震所造成的慘狀在電視里已活生生的播出了，在此不再累述。
至於中國的那些地震專家比日本地震專家要強一些。就我所知，在此介紹一二。
2007年春天，呂大炯回北京時見到國家地震局已退休的地震專家張閔厚教授。據呂所知，張教授是國家地震局中最優秀的地震預報研究員。那時張告訴呂：「成都周圍一百公里範圍內要發生大地震，我已向有關領導彙報了，他們都說我是瘋子。」張接著說：「我已預測了兩三個地震可能發生的時間段，但都沒有發震。」張又接著說：「震中地區是根據當地的地磁異常獲得的。地震發生的危險時段卻是根據磁暴來推算的，因為磁暴是地震的一個觸發因素。但根據磁暴推算出來的某一危險時段不一定就是根據當地的地磁異常獲得的未來震中地區的發震時間。」根據張所說的預報方法，預報一次，地震沒有發生; 再預報一次，地震還是沒有發生…… 當地震真的來臨時，又不敢再預報了，怕又來一次虛報。當大地震發生了，又後悔沒有事先作出預報。問題是：如果這一次真的事先預報了，領導也未必會那麼有信心來發布預報，因為專家們已經喊狼來了喊了好幾次了！至於地震預報「英雄」耿慶國教授的虛報次數那就多到不用去提他了！
張閔厚教授很好奇：為什麼呂大炯只預報一次就能成功，而且預報時間的窗口可以縮小到如此地狹窄。秘訣究竟在哪裡？呂大炯告訴張教授：「你把我的書真的讀懂了，你也就明白了」。
當然，張教授用「當地的地磁異常來預報震中」這一方法不僅在時間上而且對「震中來說「也有不少虛報。如果兩人的方法能夠聯合使用，效果一定會更佳。過去呂大炯一直想要但沒有條件獲取更多的可靠的前兆手段，特別是地磁及磁暴的資料。
(註： 汶川離成都大約 100 公里）
本文若有不妥之處，請批評指正。



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