政治和經濟 Politics and economy

Oct 30, 2015 at 11:56 AM

今天寫一點政治和經濟，你們是專家，別笑我.

I write a little politics and economy today, you are experts, don't laugh at me.

以前小時候看雜技有一個節目叫歡樂廚師，一條很長的桌子，上有一長排不同碟子，廚師一人輪流把盤子轉起來，只用那麼一點力就可把碟子轉起來，到最後看見前面的要倒了，又回來再給點力繼續讓它轉. 在同一時間所有的盤子都在運轉，只要一個人操作就夠了. 這就是為什麼中國經濟能夠在過去短短几十年騰飛的原因. 國外一大批經濟學家在研究中國的秘密，他們搞不清楚.

I used to watch acrobatics when I was a kid. There was a program called Happy Chef. There was a long table with a long row of different dishes. The chef turned the plate up self-rotating one by one. He used only a little force to turn the plate up. At the end he saw the first one almost go down, came back and give more rotating force to continue on. At the same time all the plates are running, as long as one person is enoughrotating them. This is why the Chinese economy can take off in the past few decades. A large number of economists are studying the secrets of China, and they are not clear.

經濟就是將資源資金按照現有的需求優化有效匹配產生最大利益.

The economy is to maximize the benefits of optimizing and matching capitals and resources according to existing needs.

中國是一個窮國，自然資源有限，人力資源豐富. 在上面這個例子中，人表示權力機構，所用的轉盤子的力表示資金和資源，盤子表示生產市場需求產品的，適合應用資源的企業，比如勞動密集型，外貿加工型. 當你在用有限資金的時候，首先你要把它匯總起來應用，一分「力」（資源資金）可能不夠把一個盤子轉起來的. 其次你要應碟而異，不能按所謂的主流方法，就要知道 「力」 用在哪兒最巧. 而要集中「力」就需要有足夠的權力（power)和對碟子的了解，如果權力分散，比如說有好幾個自由做主的人，每個人只知道某些碟子，就有兩個可能，一是"力」同時分給幾個人，可能每一個人都沒法把盤子轉起來，二是大家輪流用「力」，可是在輪流轉手的時候，過程複雜，還有時延，可能一轉手那個盤子就已經倒了，效益就差. 只有集權，綜觀大局，及時調整優化，一步一步讓所有盤子都轉起來而且不倒. 等到賺利到一定程度, 再開新一桌. 這是國家政治結構和經濟規劃的議題.

China is a poor country with limited natural resources and abundant human resources. In the above acrobat example, people represent the authority, the power to rotate the plate represents funds and resources, and the plate indicates the products that are suitable for the application of the market, for example, labor-intensive, foreign trade processing. When you are using limited funds, you should first put it together and apply it. A "force" (resources) may not be enough to turn a plate. Secondly, you should differentiate disc, you can't follow the so-called mainstream method, you need to know where "force" is the most skillful. To concentrate "force" requires sufficient power and understanding of the plate. If the power is scattered, for example there are several people who are free to be the masters. Everyone knows only some plates. There are two possibilities. One is that "force" is given to several people at the same time. Maybe everyone can't turn the plate up. Second, everyone takes turns to give "power", but when it takes turns , the process is complicated, and there is a delay. It may be that the plate has already been turned down, and the benefits are limited. Only centralized power control the overall situation, and a and optimize, step by step so that all dishes can be rotated up and not down. Wait until earn profit to a certain extent, and then open a new table. This is the issue of political structure and economic planning of the country.

如果這件事讓別國來做，很有可能一個碟子一個人管，一組人後面還有一個管理員. 操作碟子的可能對碟子還不了解，還要經常加「力」. 即使盈利一樣，你看這樣的結構，代價大多了. 在我們系統設計中一個是中央控制還有一個是分散控制. 在分散控制情景下，比如說某些企業是由省決定的時候，當有物質信息互通的時候，比如說某些部件某些原料市場是在其他省的時候，那就有界面. 而中央控制, 就沒有這個問題，直接管控就是. 在設計的時候就要事先考慮設計的範圍，代價，期望值. 然後決定結構.

If this thing is to be done by other countries, it is very likely that eachplate will be managed by one person. There is also a manager behind a group of people. The operator may not know plate well, and it is often necessary to add "force". Even if it is also profitable, with such anoperating structure, it costs too much. In our system design, one is central control and the other is distributed control. In the distributed control scenario, for example, when some enterprises are determined by the province, when there is material information exchange at that time, say, some parts of certain raw materials market is in other provinces, then there is an interface. However under central control, there is no such problem, direct management. In design, we must consider the scope of design, cost, expected value. Then decide the structure.

這就是為什麼中國需要王滬寧的理論，因為決策層沒有人習慣去看公式和數字.而用文字表述的理論是對集權結構的證實. 為什麼國外搞不懂中國經濟起飛原因，因為首先他們搞不懂中國的政治結構，第二他們的主流經濟學不適宜應用在中國的現實.你看國外的人每一個人的名片基本只有一個頭銜，而在中國每一個人的名片上都有好幾個頭銜.對人力資源的應用上國外不如中國. 這也是為什麼美國在世界各地推行民主，市場經濟，很少有成功的原因. 因為他們不了解別國的情況，不能對症下藥. 別的國家沒有這個能力去支撐這個系統. 當中國經濟起飛的時候中央就開始分利. 也就是多開幾桌.

This is why China needs Wang Huning's theory, because no one in the decision-making layer is used to seeing formulas and figures. The theory expressed in words is the validation of the centralized structure. Why do foreign countries fail to understand the reasons for the Chinese economic take-off, because first they don』t understand Chinese political structure, second their mainstream economic theories are not suitable for the Chinese reality. You see that each person's business card has only one title outside China, while there are several titles on the business card of almost each person in China. The application of human resources is not as good as that of China. This is also why the United States promotes democracy and market economy around the world, and almostnone is successful. Because they do not understand the situation in other countries, they cannot apply the right medicine. Other countries do not have the ability to support this democratic system. When Chinese economy takes off, the central government begins to distribute profits. That is, open more tables.

我覺得, 不應該只按照原來的操作模式, 應該是, 我怎麼樣設計高科技產品, 比如說一對一的, 或一對多的操作機器人, 那我就不用人來決定, 靠智慧機器人來確定, 規模可以更大, 效率可以更高. 還有中國的一胎化. 任何社會任何事情都有各種各樣的情形, 一刀切其實是不公正的. 在數學上描述這種現象用的就是分佈（distribution), 最常見的高斯分佈 (Gaussian distribution), 會有中間主流和兩端的極端現象, 一個成熟合理的政策應該是有分別對待的. 應該是有能力養育高質量孩子的應該多生, 不然就少生或不生. 保證質量的同時, 對沒有條件的有孩子家庭應該開放寄宿, 由國家補貼. 現在開放二胎也還是不公正的. 北歐人口少可是生活質量高, 人的素質高. 我覺得應該是花資本和精力去提升人的素質, 創造有智慧的機器人這些高科技. 國內素質不怎樣卻賺錢的人, 一大把一大把把資金往外面送, 讓小孩子得不到家庭的溫暖, 在外面又受不到真正好的教育. 中國普遍人口素質不高, 不能因為要大市場消費, 所以就讓多生孩子. 這個模式不怎麼樣. 怪不得pope要Jackie跳小豬舞了.

I don't think it should be just according to the original mode of operation. It should be, how do I design high-tech products, such as one-on-one, or one-to-many robots, then I don't need human to decide, justrelying on smart robots to determine, the scale can be bigger, the efficiency can be higher. There is also a one-child policy in China. There are all kinds of situations in any society, and it is unfair for policy to be one-size-fits-all. In mathematics when describing this phenomenon it is the distribution, the most common Gaussian distribution, there will be extreme phenomena at the two ends beside the middle mainstream. A mature and reasonable policy should treats things case by case. Thepolicy should be whoever capable can raise more high-quality children, otherwise have fewer kids or do not have kid. While ensuring quality, families with children who have no conditions should be open to boarding and subsidized by the state. It is still unfair to open birth forsecond child. The Nordic population is low, but the quality of life is high and the quality of people is high. I think more efforts should be spent to improve people's quality, to create smart robots with these high-tech. People domestic whose quality is not good but make money, send a lot of money abroad, children still can't get family warmth outside, and they don't really get good education outside. The average Chinese population quality is not high, so you should not have more children because you want to consume in the big market. This mode is not very good. No wonder pope wants Jackie to do 「piglet」dance.

連Jackie和他們的朋友都在笑, 為什麼中國人把美國想得那麼好. 如果獨生子女孤獨，那就應該多開辦一些社交活動，心理教育的課程，創造機會讓他們在一起有集體活動. 中國已經很擠了，這邊的孩子才是沒人玩！這邊的政治結構和經濟系統才是有大問題的，因為代價太大了，誰買單哪？你們？ 好吧，現在你們有資本可以在全世界做廣告，就說 「有能力有經驗能夠幫助把最困難的國家經濟搞上去. 只需短短三十年」， 然後打歷史牌，「我們了解你過去，了解你現在, 我們在一起」, 一定所向披靡. 外交部有事做了. 還有腐敗，腐敗是人性，美國的腐敗是到骨子裡的，是在他的系統中的. 我覺得你們現在做的象舜堯治水，用堵的. 可以分兩個結構，嚴格的，公事公辦的，用人以才的，科學的，作為主體. 給腐敗留一點空間，限定權力的獲利量.比如說你用一個無才的富二代作sales, 也許他的人脈可以給你帶來很多定單和投資. 記住任何一個事情都有它的 distribution, 有主流還有極端.制定合理政策，分別對待就好了.婚姻主流是一夫一妻，我覺得同性戀的婚姻應該是次婚姻，不能和主流婚姻有同樣的待遇.

Even Jackie and their friends are laughing, why Chinese people think of the United States so well. If the only child is lonely, then you should start more social activities, psychological education courses, create opportunities for them to have collective activities together. China is toocrowded, while children here have no one to play with! The political structure and economic system here have big problems, because the cost is too high. Who pays the bill? You guys? Well, now that you have the capital to advertise around the world, you could say, "We have ability,experience that can help bring the most difficult national economy up. Only 30 years!" and then hit the history card, "We knew you before, we know you now, and we are connected", must be invincible. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has something to do. There is corruption, corruption is human nature, American corruption is in the bones, in its system. I think you are like Emperor Shun and Yao for flood control, blocking the flood. It can be divided into two structures, strict, public affairs, use talented, scientific, as the main body. Leave some space for corruption, limit the profit of power. For example you use a non-talent rich second generation for sales, maybe his network can bring you a lot of orders and investments. Remember that any thing has its distribution, there are mainstream and extreme. Formulate a reasonable policy and treat it caseby case. OK. The mainstream of marriage is monogamy. I think that a gay marriage should be a sub-marriage and cannot be treated the same as a mainstream marriage.

聯邦大法官數學不夠好. 其實政治和經濟歸根到底還是數學為基礎的科學.

The federal supreme court judge's mathematics is not good enough. In fact, politics and economics are ultimately mathematics-based science.

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