對經濟深層運作， 宏觀和微觀的分析考量 Macro- and micro-analysis considerations f

Oct 28, 2015 at 3:17 PM

對經濟深層運作， 宏觀和微觀的分析考量 Macro- and micro-analysis considerations for deep economic operation management

Sweetie，請告訴我，我能為你做什麼? 你要我什麼? 請給我一點時間我想讀一點書，Marshall and Samuelson. 懇請你們給我一點指點，智慧碰撞才能有火花. 我在想所有這些經濟理論以及流派，經濟模型，統計的公式，都有其一定的歷史政治制度生產力為背景的. 比如說中國統計局在統計他們的GDP，統計方式可能和別人不一樣.中國在做自己的調查統計時，基數不同，統計的層次不同，公式不同，結果也不一樣.

Sweetie, please tell me, what can I do for you? Please give me some time, I want to read more books, Marshall and Samuelson. Please give me some advice, intellectual collision can spark. I think that all these economic theories and genres, economic models, and statistical formulas have their own historical political system background. For example, the China Bureau of Statistics is counting their GDP, and the statistical methods may be different from others. When China is doing statisticsurveys, the cardinality is different, the level of statistics is different, and the formulas may have different results.

所以我昨天說的那個基本的模式是太簡化了，其實國家的邊界還是有其政治地理作用的. 某些政府的行政作用也只有在其管轄的範圍內有用. 那我想就先要對這些理論和公式的適用範圍要做一個分析，在很多情況下他們是通過原始數據採樣，綜合出一定的數據指標，並在此基礎上有多層的相關分析. 如果你有大數據，直接對原始數據處理，而不用採樣，那你的結果會精確許多. 很多理論的統計只是抽象的數據處理，而不考慮許多地域的因素，在微觀情況時，如果以 同質組來分, 並予以加權，也許結果會更精確. 還有我不知道有沒有動態的模型, 就是按照當地的經濟變化來做預測的模型?比如說你要在某地方做投資，比如說有一個新的技術出來改變的人的生活方式，那你的經濟會受什麼樣影響？會怎麼樣改變呢？改變的力度也就是量可能會多大呢？

So the basic model that I said yesterday is too simple. In fact, the borders of the country still have its political geographical functions. The administrative role of some governments is only useful within the scope of their jurisdiction. I think the scope of application of theories and formulas should be analyzed first. In many cases, they use raw samplingdata to synthesize certain data indicators, and based on this, there are multiple layers of correlation analysis. If you have big data, directly process the original Data without sampling, then your results will be much more accurate. Many theoretical statistics are abstract only on data processing, regardless of many geographical regional factors. In the micro case, if the group is divided homogeneously and weighted, maybe the result will be more accurate. And I don't know if there is a dynamic model, is it a model of prediction according to local economic changes? For example, you have to invest in a place,or a person with a new technology to change lifestyle, what impact will it on economy? How will it change? The strength of the change is how big amount?

在宏觀情況下， 要對某些結果數據設上限.可能以前有，也可能是新的，這些上限決定了這個經濟體哪些事情可以做，那些事情還沒有條件做. 當經濟在大的範圍內動態變化時，象過去幾十年中國的經濟在那麼大程度上影響世界經濟，有沒有理論來解釋呢？這些理論能不能適用於以後一代一路呢？我想一定會有新的理論產生出來. 這些新理論會象尺子一樣，衡量，引導和調整全球經濟的變化，避免動蕩危機。 我希望我能夠講的更詳細點，您能補充嗎？

In the case of macro, it is necessary to set threshold for some result data. It may be new or not. These thresholds determine what can be done in this economy, and those things are not ready. When the economy changes dynamically in a large range Is there any theory to explain why the Chinese economy has affected the world economy to such a large extent in the past few decades? Can these theories be applied to the next generation? I think there will be new theories. These new theories will be like rulers, measure, lead and adjust the change in global economy , avoid turmoil crisis. I hope I can talk more in detail, can you add?

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