如何進行經濟結構分析 How to do economic structure analysis

Oct 26, 2015 at 11:25 PM

我不是專家, 得惡補一下政治經濟知識啊，是吧？別笑我. Jackie數學不好，可講話邏輯很厲害，請別在意. 有一次在國際衛視演出，主持人是來美學法律的北美崔哥，給她下套，問她學才藝是不是媽媽逼的，是不是犧牲很多玩的時間. 結果她說，每個人都有天賦，因為我喜歡藝術就把時間花在這上邊多些，別人喜歡運動，看電視，玩，就做別的. 下一次同台演出，北美崔哥一句話都不問她了.

I am not an expert, I have to make up for political and economic knowledge, right? Don't laugh at me. Jackie's math is not good, but her speech logic is very powerful. Please don't mind. Once in Chinese international TV show, the host is North American Brother Sway who came to US studying law. Give her a trap asking her if she is forced byMom to learn music sacrificing a lot of time to play . As a result, she said that everyone has talent, because she likes art and spend more time on it. Others like sports, watching TV, playing, and spend time on doing something else. Next time On the same stage, Brother Sway of North America did not ask her a word.

經濟中有第一產業第二產業第三產業，我上次寫的經濟的層次也是這個意思，當然層次比產業要更具體些. 發達國家和發展中國家的區別在於，在GDP中，發達國家的高層產業貢獻比例比較大，因為第三產業能附加的價值比較高. 在發達國家中，下邊產業的人口數跟總人口的比例，比發展中國家小很多.也就是因為他們應用了高科技，每個人能貢獻多，效率更大. 如果你把每一層，或相似的產業，按地區，在世界上的聯合起來，再以地區產值為高度，那你就有了這個產業在世界的分佈.可以用simulink,來做. 在各個地區的產值中，哪一部分是本國的，哪一部分是外資公司的，本國的比例是多少？這個行業哪一個外國公司在全球的利潤最大？為什麼？

There are primary sector, the secondary sector, the tertiary sector in the economy. The level of the economy I wrote last time means the samething. Of course, the level is more specific than the sectors. The difference between developed and developing countries is that in GDP.In developed countries their contribution rate of the high-level industries is relatively large, because the value added by the tertiary industry is relatively high. In developed countries, the ratio of the population of the lower industries to the total population is much smaller than that of the developing countries. It is because they apply high technology. Everyone can contribute more and the region will be more efficient. If you put each layer, or a similar industry , by region in the world regional production value as height, then you have this industry distribution in the world. It can be done with simulink to show the 3D layout. Which part of the output value of each region is domestic and which part is a foreign company? What is the proportion of the country? What is the proportion of this country? Which foreign company in this industry has the most profit in the world? Why?

當你有了這一個大的分布圖你就可以做macro和micro的分析. 有一些產業你一定要用macro眼光來看,比如能源，設想如果俄國不供歐洲天然氣，如果沙特不供給中國石油, 會是啥結果？ 電力核動力水力發電等等，可不可以以經濟區域的方式，而不是以國家的方式來劃分？中美洲氣候土壤適宜產各種各樣的水果，南美更是廣闊的牧場生產生產世界最好的牛肉. 北美更是一片平原適合機械化大規模生產莊稼. 中國的可耕地有限，有山的地方沒法用機械化，這樣生產力低效率不高. 田地還有休耕問題. 如果國家疆界不是一個障礙，中國人又比較聰明可以做比較高級的產業. 你懂我意思的, 這是一個宏觀的可行性. 如果科技進步了有些本來是微觀的也可以變成宏觀. 比如動畫可以在地球不同的studio畫，甚至不同人在不同地方錄音，寫音樂，最後匯總就行. 如果以micro來看，每個地區在產業之中，產業和產業之間，自己就可以加很多屬於當地的層次. 中國在這方面非常有創造性，提供了大量的就業機會，創造了很大的產值.

When you have this large distribution map, you can do macro and micro analysis. There are some industries that you must look at with macro vision, such as energy. If Russia does not supply European gas, if Saudi Arabia does not supply Chinese oil, what will it be? Oil power, nuclear power, hydro-power, etc., can it be divided by economic region rather than by country? Central America's climatic soil is suitable for producing a wide variety of fruits, and South America is a vast pasture producing the world's best beef. North America is a plain for mechanized large-scale production of crops. China's arable land is limited, and there are mountains where there is no way to mechanize, so productivity is not efficient. The field has a fallow problem. If the national border is not an obstacle, Chinese are smarter and can be in more advanced industry. You know what I mean, this is a macro feasibility. With advanced technology, some micros can also become macro. For example, animation can be painted in different studios on the earth, even different people recording , writing music in different places, and finally integrated. If you look at micro, each region when inside the industries, among them, between them, they can add a lot of local level. China is very creative in this respect, providing a large number of employment opportunities and creating a large output values.

基於上面已經形成的以產業為高低的層次分佈，你可以把國家的邊界線加上去，那就一目了然，這個國家他的產業層次上下分佈是如何，產業層水平分佈如何. 然後再把你的環境的約束，污染的情況，市場的距離，種種條件加上去看看這個地區的產業分佈是不是合理？有什麼可以調整的？ 每家跨國公司都有他們的投資分佈，以後的投資策略.把他們所有的一層層疊加起來，那就是以後可能的，現有的資本擁有者對將來的經濟的結構的共識？ 看看與你的分析吻和嗎？

Based on the above-mentioned industry-level distribution, you can add the country's boundary line. It is clear at a glance how the country's industrial vertical level is distributed, how the industrial horizontal level is distributed. Then take your environment constraints, pollution situations, markets distribution, plus various conditions to see if the industry distribution in this area is reasonable? What can be adjusted? Every multinational company has their investment distributions, and the future investment strategy. Stacking all of them layer by layer, is that, possible, the existing capital owners' consensus on the future economic structure? See if it matches with your analysis?

看見你們新的口號是拉動內需. 也就是在你的邊界線內，最低層的產業層次，看能不能用高效率的技術？能不能多加新的創意產業層次？能不能增加你的自己的產值的比例，降低外來投資產值的比例？給產業添加附加值？增加高層產業的比例？ 再看看別國的別的地區的產業層次，什麼東西比較缺呀，你的技術，能不能把那邊市場拿下來？或者合資，或者交換. 希望你的決定是有 solid的數據,和嚴密的邏輯, 有說服力的經濟學理論來支撐你的. 有錢了，自然要買好東西，有錢人多了，自然市場需求就大了. 向外擴張和提升內部其實是不矛盾的，一張紙的兩個面. Sweetie, 如果你的控制程序現在是以手機為單位的話，那你的經濟控制要以一個經濟體為單位，可以是人也可以是企業. 包括地點，產業性質，輸入，輸出，市場， 等等， 可以是你既有控制程序的一個 sub. 等你有了這些object, 以及運作的數據，你就可以加那些經濟學的所有的公式了.

Seeing your new slogan is to stimulate domestic demand. That is, within your borderline, the lowest level of industry, can you see if you can use high-efficiency technology? Can you add a new level of creative industry? Can you increase the proportion of your own output and reduce the proportion of foreign investment in output? Add value to the industry? Increase the proportion of high-tech industries? Look at the industrial level of other regions in other countries, what is missing, useyour technology, can you take the market there? Or make joint venture, or exchange. I hope that your decision has solid data, and rigorous logic, or persuasive economic theory to support you. Be rich, naturally peoplewant to buy good things. Get richer people naturally have larger market demands. It is not contradictory to expand outwards and upgrade the interior the same time. It is like two sides of a coin. Sweetie, if your control program can now be based on a mobile phone unit, then your economic control must be based on an economic unit. It can be either a person or a business, including location, industry nature, input, output, market, etc., can be a subroutine of your existing control program. Waittill you create these objects, as well as the operational data, then you can add all the economics formulas.

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