中國經濟發展 Chinese economic development

Oct 26, 2015 at 11:22 PM

說實在話中國現在人才濟濟，最好的戰略家, 經濟學家, 都在你們那兒了. 我擅長系統設計分析.雖然世界上有各種系統，但是根本上設計和分析的方法差不多. 我不是經濟專家，但是我用最笨的方法來分析一下.

I would say that China now really has talented people. The best strategist and economist are here. I am good at system design analysis. Although there are various systems in the world, fundamentally the method of design and analysis is similar. I am not an economic expert, but I use the most stupid way to analyze it.

通訊系統有七層.最底層是物理層，用什麼線用什麼之無線電頻，比如物流網裡的海路公路空中通道。再上一層是信息怎麼打包加密，比如使用集裝箱的還是一般的郵局呢，大包還是小包呢。 再上一層是在網路里怎麼輸送，信息的物流，走那一條道到目的地比較快一點。再上一層就是裝的是什麼東西啊？是給誰的？派什麼用處？發送一方從上層到下層準備好，通過物理層傳到另一方，然後收方從下到上一層層打開把信息取出來. 有人的社會按照需要，其經濟結構也是由下到上一層一層的，最下的是必需品（衣食住行）最上的是精神和奢侈品，藝術，文化. 國家越富裕，每人所佔有的必需品及必需品的內涵越高級和豐富. 越高層的產品附加價值就越高.

The communication system has seven layers. The bottom layer is the physical layer. What lines are used for radio frequencies, such as the sea， road， airway in the logistics network. The next upper layer is how to pack encrypt information , such as the use of containers or the general post office, big bags or small packages. The next upper layer is how to transport in the network, the logistics of information, go which route to the destination faster. What is the next level? Who is it for? What is the use? The sending party prepares from the upper layer to the lower layer and transmits it to the other party through the physical layer. Then the receiver opens the information from the bottom to the top to take out the information. In people's society there are needs of economic structure from bottom to top. The bottom is the necessities (clothing, food and shelter)，the top thing is the spirit and luxury goods, art and culture. The richer the country, the more advanced and rich the essentials and necessities of each person. The higher level， the moreadded value of the products.

三十年前中國還是一個貧窮的國家，中國是怎麼樣一步一步充實這些層面的呢？中國從最底層做起，用毛澤東的集中優勢兵力個個擊破，把有限的資金先集中起來，一個一個地扶植低端的製造業，加工業，以發達國家的必需品基礎層為市場. 因為他們有購買力，他們要購買比本國生產更便宜的必需品，而且非要不可. 發展中國家不是每個國家都能製造這些必需品，他們也希望以較低的價格購買必需品來滿足他們的市場. 所以你就擁有了全球的必需品市場. 漸漸地，把同一條產業鏈全吸收到中國，因為這樣價格才能更便宜. 因為有了製造，創造價值，所以財富像雪球一樣越滾越多. 國家有疆界，設置關稅，保護本土產業，保證財富由本土創造，不然用錢去買必需品錢從哪裡來呀？可是疆界擋不住中國大量的超便宜的產品. 很多年前去耶路撒冷的市場里，雖然很多賣的是宗教產品，居然都是在中國生產的. 南美的市場里賣衣服鞋子生活品，居然也是中國產的.

Thirty years ago, China was still a poor country. How did China enrich these levels step by step? Starting from the bottom, China has used Mao Zedong』s concentrated strengths to break through, that is concentrate the limited funds first, to support the low-end manufacturing industries one by one. The processing industry is based on the necessities of the developed countries who have purchasing power. Those countries have to buy necessities that are cheaper than domestic production, and they must. Not every developing countries can make these necessitiesthemselves, they also want to buy necessities at a lower price to satisfy their market. So China has a global market of essential goods. Gradually, the same industry chain is fully absorbed into China, because the price can be cheaper. Because of manufacturing and creating value, wealth grows more and more like snowballs. Countries have boarders， to set tariffs, protect local industries, and ensure that wealth is created by the locals. Otherwise, how can you have money to buy essential goods? But the borders can't stop Chinese huge amount of ultra-cheap products. Many years ago I went to Jerusalem, although many markets sell religious products, they were all made in China. In the South American market, they sold clothes and shoes. All made in China.

其實這個世界市場是共通的.發達國家如美國製造高端產品，並巧取豪奪. 可是如果別的國家經濟一有問題，奪也得不到什麼時，別人沒那麼多錢買高端產品時，美國的經濟模式就出現災難.同時中國以全世界為市場，當其他國家的經濟有問題時，即使是對必需品消費也縮減，中國經濟肯定放緩. 怎麼樣改變經濟呢？兩個辦法. 一個就是投資讓別的國家創造更多的財富，你也分利，那他們就有錢來買你的產品. 一個就是對自己市場的產品升級，多製造高端產品. 以前吃飽就好，現在要吃好，不用大路貨，要用奢侈品. 還要用高科技，跟上時代.

In fact, this world market is connected. Developed countries such as the United States make high-end products, and they take advantage of it. But if other countries have problems with the economy, they won』t get anything. When others don』t have much money to buy high-end products, the US economy model will have disaster. At the same time, China takes the world as the market. When the economy of other countries has problems, even if the consumption of essential goods is reduced, the Chinese economy will definitely slow down. How to change the economy? Two ways. One is to let other countries create more wealth, and you also make profits, then they have money to buy your products. Another one is to upgrade their products in the market, and manufacture more high-end products. before it was just fine be full, now you like to eat well, you don't have to use common goods, you cantry luxury goods. Also use high technology to keep up with the times.

向外投資比如說一帶一路，先要把全球的經濟規劃有一個大概的概念，某一地區有什麼設計目標，你可以把這一地區的各國的經濟層次仔細分析一下，從下到上看他們最需要什麼，有些基礎設施的建造可以是短期回利的，有些是要長期才獲利. 你還要分析當地的經濟是什麼產業創造財富？可以有什麼新產業來創造更多的財富？這些產品的市場在哪裡？怎麼樣幫他們去找市場，你是不是願意把某些必需品的製造也分到那些地區去？你給出一個表格，估算一下產值，預估一下投入，預估一下建設的時間長短，並加以分類給出順序，看看怎麼樣適應整個大地區的整體規劃. 然後給出一個步驟. 信息網怎麼走，物流怎麼做，金融怎麼做...

For outward investment, such as the Belt and Road Initiative, we must first have a general concept of global economic planning. What are the design goals of a certain region? You can carefully analyze the economic levels of countries in this region and look at them from the bottom up. What is the most needed, some infrastructure construction can be short-term profit, and some will be profitable in the long run. You also need to analyze the local economy is what industry to create wealth? What new industries can there be to create more wealth? Where are the markets for these products? How to help them find the market, are you willing to divide the manufacture of certain necessities into those areas? You give a table, estimate the output value, estimate the input, estimate the length of construction, and classify the order to see how to adapt to the overall planning of the entire region. Then give a road map. How to go online, how to do logistics, how to do finance...

對自己的產品升級，就需要人才的研發. 可以自己培養人才，也可以用全世界的人才. 比如說製造業，德國的機械製造人才眾多，美國這邊設計產品也是有很多人才的.中國其實需要很多機器人改變人工的模式，對國外的人才來說，是piece of cake. 而這些人因為國內經濟不好，找不到工作沒用武之地. 新的科技會帶來經濟結構的大改變，最近突破性的發展不太見到，是不是應該有一個全球的聯合起來的研發中心，互通有無，因為新的科技需要很多方面的背景知識才能突破.中國是製造大國，手上有很多的技術，是不是可以組織專門的部門，研究和重新組合這些技術並加以應用，或設計新的系統，生產力的改變就很可觀. 可是國內大學我沒有看見有系統設計這門課程.中國擁有現在世界上最先進的陣相雷達，同樣的技術可以用於捕魚的聲吶. 可是漁民的聲吶系統那麼落後，海魚都給日本人韓國人撈走了. 搞不懂. 今天先講到這兒，為什麼你們每次跳舞我都看不見？是不是應該把我也加到group裡面？Jackie說她今天跟伊麗莎白王后通話，真羨慕. 真羨慕你們.

For the upgrading of their own products, they need talents in research and development. They can cultivate talents themselves or use talents from all over the world. For example, manufacturing, there are many mechanical manufacturing talents in Germany, and there are many talents in designing products in the United States. It takes a lot of robots to change the artificial mode. For foreign talents, it is a piece of cake. These people are unable to find a job because the domestic economy is not good. The new technology will bring big changes in the economic structure. The recent breakthrough development is not very obvious. Is there a global joint R&D center that can communicate with each other? Because new technologies require a lot of comprehensive knowledge to break through. China is a big manufacturing country with many technologies at hands. Is it possible to organize specialized departments, research and recombine these technologies and apply them, or design new systems, the productivity changes will be very impressive. But I have not seen the system design course in domestic universities. NowChina has the world most advanced array radar, the same technology can be used for fishing sonar. But the fishermen's sonar system is so backward, the fish are all taken away by Japanese and Koreans. I don』t understand. I』ll stop here today.. Why can』t I see each of you dance? Should you also add me to the group? Jackie said that she is talking to Queen Elizabeth today. I am really envy you.