社會及經濟的智能監管 Intelligent supervision of society and economy

Oct 26, 2015 at 11:16 PM

我們現在監管污染的手段就是在河流大氣土壤等地方放監測儀器，如果某些數據超標的時候我們就知道會有污染. 我覺得現在的經濟指標也是到這個程度，監控像一個matrix. 如果某些指標出問題呢，道瓊工業指數納斯達克就會跟著上下波動. 如果我們把經濟也象工程一樣來做，做得更信息化，細節化. 當污染出現的時候我們完全可以通過其他途徑找出污染源，對污染源增加控制和監管，在第一時間杜絕污染的發生.  整個社會的經濟系統是一個更複雜的系統. 我們是不是應該分析整個人類社會, 對某個產品的需求總量是多少, 在各個地區的分散量是多少. 然後根據產業鏈豎向地分析每一個企業的需求量以及產出量，然後再橫向的綜合某一個環節的總需求量及產出量.

將實際的需求和生產的供應相比較, 如果是滿足需求的, 相差不大的, 那這個系統運作是正常的. 如果地區有差別, 那要從全球來平衡, 如果全球範圍內哪個環節出了錯, 太少或太多, 那就會引發經濟災難.

The means of monitoring pollution now is to place monitoring instruments in the atmosphere of the river, etc. If some data exceeds the standard, we will know that there will be pollution. I think the current economic indicators are also to this extent, monitoring is like a matrix. If there is a problem with the indicator, the Dow Jones Industrial Index NASDAQ will fluctuate up and down. If we manage economy in engineering way, we will have more information and details. When pollution occurs, we can through other channels to identify pollution sources, increase control and supervision, and eliminate pollution in the first place. The economic system of the whole society is a more complex system. Should we analyze the entire human society, the total demand for a certain product, the amount of dispersion in each region. Then, according to the industry chain, the demands and outputs of each enterprise is analyzed vertically, and then the total demands and outputs of a certain link is integrated horizontally. Comparing the actual demand with the supply of production, if it is satisfied with the demand, the system is operating normally. If there is a difference in the region, it should be balanced from the global scale. If any part of the world is out wrong, too little or too much, it will lead to economic disaster.

我們在設計系統結構的時候有中央控制還有分散控制，一般來說中央控制比較好, 因為可以掌控全局. 但現在全球的情景是各個國家有自己的控制，某個強權會在控制的時候把災難移至外國，更加深別國的災情. 怎麼樣一個控制結構才是一個最好的結構,來平衡防止下一次的經濟危機？而且經濟不是只是一個行業，行業之間是相互關聯的，我們不能只是被動地看一些大的指數，應該有一個立體的操控矩陣, 精確到每一個點，而且要實時監控. 我不知道現在有人是不是做研究已經到了這樣的程度，每一個點的臨界指數已經大體給出？我不知道是不是有人已經作出研究，某些指數間的關係是不是適合一定的公式？（比如說嬰兒的出生率，與嬰幼物品供應，和附近託兒所幼兒園的數量和容量配比關係，等等）我們在系統操作的時候，還要看系統過去的歷史，分析系統的走向，看社會的變化及科技的進步，或是可能的災害，（比如戰爭避難）來預置一定的操作空間， 或預備一個備存系統.

When designing system structure, we have central control and distributed control. Generally speaking, central control is better because it can control the whole situation. But now the global situation is that each country has its own control, and a certain power will move disaster to a foreign country and deepened the disaster situation of that country. How is the best structure to balance the future economic crisis? And the economy is not just an industry. The industries are interrelated. We can't just look at some big indexes passively. There should be a multidimensional control of the matrix, accurate to every point, and real-time monitoring. I don't know anyone now. Is it that the research has reached such a level that the critical index of each point has been given roughly? I don't know if someone has already done research. Is the relationship between certain indexes suitable for a certain formula? (For example, the birth rate of babies, the supply of baby goods, and the number and capacity ratio of kindergartens in nearby nurseries, etc.) When we operate the system, we must look at the past history of the system, analyze the moving direction of the system, changes and advances in technology, or possible disasters (such as war refuge) to pre-set a certain operating space, or prepare a backup system.

我不知道世界頂尖的經濟學家是不是有如此完美的系統操作的概念和設計，以及系統內部關係的具體理論. 如果沒有，我想這就是大數據所要做的下一步驟. 如果整個社會是一個人體，網際網路為主的通信就是人的神經系統，經濟就是人的循環系統，機械基建是人的肌肉和骨骼系統. 如果整個社會的監控matrix 可以建立起來，經濟引發的經濟危機就不可能發生. 基於對整個社會各行業的了解，就業的配備也會更合理，人才的培養就會比較定向比較有目的，而孩子成長生涯規劃也能更大地發揮人的優勢. 人可以用更多的時間和精力去創造去學習去發揮才能，天生我材必有用. 這樣也可以有效地防止某些惡性投機行為，使財富可以比較平均地分配. 使資本可以用在最需要的地方，用工程的話說是系統優化. 數學公式總是最完美的，人類社會不見得. 我不太懂經濟，只是擅長設計系統.

I don't know if the world's top economists have such a perfect system operation concept and design, and the specific theory of the internal relationship of the system. If not, I think this is the next step that big data has to do. If the whole society is A human body, Internet-based communication is the human nervous system, the economy is the human circulatory system, and the mechanical infrastructure is the human muscle and skeletal system. If the monitoring matrix of the whole society can be established, the economic crisis caused by the economy will not happen. Based on the understanding of the entire society and the industry, the employment will be more reasonable, the cultivation of talents will be more targeted, and the child's growth career planning can also give greater play to people's advantages. People can use more time and Efforts to create and learn to play talents, natural materials must be useful. This can also effectively prevent some vicious speculation, so that wealth can be distributed evenly. Capital can be used where it is most needed, in engineering terms System Optimization. Mathematical formulas are always perfect, human society is not. I don't know much about the economy, but I am good at designing systems.

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