劉龍珠律師法律評論: HOW WILL TRUMP』S PRESIDENCY AFFECT CHINA AND CHINESE-AMERI

HOW WILL TRUMP』S PRESIDENCY AFFECT CHINA AND CHINESE-AMERICANS?

How will the Chinese community be impacted by Donald Trump』s proposed immigration reform?

Immigration reform has been one of Donald Trump』s biggest political platforms, causing concerns that he will now make good on his early-stage candidacy promise to deport the approximately 11 million illegal immigrants, with many of them Chinese, already in the United States. Trump has also vowed to 「begin removing the more than two million criminal-illegal immigrants from the country and cancel visas to foreign countries that won』t take them back.」

He has further pledged to work with Congress on a broader legislative measure and 「fight for」 its passage within the first 100 days of his Administration. The proposed End Illegal Immigration Act 「establishes a two-year mandatory minimum federal prison sentence for illegally re-entering the US after a previous deportation, and a five-year mandatory minimum federal prison sentence for illegally re-entering for those with felony convictions, multiple misdemeanor convictions or two or more prior deportations; also reforms visa rules to enhance penalties for overstaying and to ensure open jobs are offered to American workers first.」

Although the President-elect hopes to rid the United States of undocumented residents, the points in his deportation plan are currently directed to those with criminal convictions.

Trump』s immigration policies include his 「10 Point Plan to Put America First.」 The following points are relevant to the Chinese community:

§  「End catch-and release. Under a Trump administration, anyone who illegally crosses the border will be detained until they are removed out of [the] country.」

§  「Move criminal aliens out day one, in joint operations with local, state, and federal law enforcement.」

§  「End sanctuary cities.」

§  「Triple the number of ICE agents.」

§  「Ensure that other countries take their people back when we order them deported.」

§  「Ensure that a biometric entry-exit visa tracking system is fully implemented at all land, air, and sea ports.」

§  「Turn off the jobs and benefits magnet…federal law prohibits the employment of illegal immigrants.」

§  「Reform legal immigration to serve the best interests of America and its workers, keeping immigration levels within historic norms.」

This process will be aided by cancelling any visas to foreign countries that will not accept their own citizens who have committed crimes, and making it a separate and additional crime to commit an offense while here illegally.

The new President-elect requires that all illegal aliens in gangs should be apprehended and deported by issuing 「Notices to Appear to all illegal aliens with criminal convictions, DUI convictions, or a gang affiliation.」  

Throughout 31 of the 50 states in the United States, there exist thousands of 「Sanctuary Cities,」 including San Francisco, Los Angeles, and New York, that have enacted regulations which provide illegal immigrants with certain protections from deportation. Specifically, this means that the estimated over 2.1 million Chinese immigrants currently residing in the US will not be detained for deportation, even if they are in the custody of the police.

In the United States, Chinese immigrants are concentrated in sanctuary cities within states such as California, New York, Washington, and Pennsylvania. In San Francisco alone, there is a population of over 283,000 Chinese immigrants. However, Trump intends to cancel all federal funding to these sanctuary cities. Thus, the states and cities in which illegal Chinese immigrants are afforded protection from deportation will no longer provide such protections. Therefore, the cities will soon be required to report and detain illegal immigrants marked for deportation.

In the United States, illegal Chinese immigrants will be at a much higher risk of facing the sobering reality of deportation from the cities in which they have lived for years, leaving behind family and friends, and returning to China to start their lives over. In China, this could cause a potential downturn to the economy – as the return of millions could result in increased unemployment, homelessness, and strife in the local economy. In addition, the Chinese economy could see a loss of funds, as many Chinese immigrants that currently send money from America to their families in China will no longer be able to do so. 

Tripling the Number of ICE Agents

This is meant to aid in the removal of the over 690,000 undocumented residents who have committed crimes.

Mandatory Return of All Criminal Aliens

If foreign countries refuse to accept a return of their criminals, Trump』s new policy proposes to cancel any visas to these foreign countries.

Biometric Entry-Exit Visa Tracking System

Trump asserts that the 「[c]ompletion of a visa tracking system…will be necessary,」 because millions of people come to the United States on temporary visas but refuse to leave, without consequence. He has demanded enhanced penalties for overstaying a visa. According to Trump, individuals who refuse to leave at the time their visa expires should be subject to criminal penalties.

Birth Citizenship

Most importantly, Trump has expressed his desire to end automatic birthright citizenship, the 「biggest magnet for illegal immigration」 according to him. However, a change to the 14th amendment birthright citizenship policy would require a constitutional amendment, which is unlikely to occur.

Trump believes that by 「[r]aising the prevailing wage paid to H-1Bs,」 it will 「force companies」 to give jobs back to domestic workers in the US. This means that American companies will give entry-level jobs to domestic native and immigrant workers in the US, rather than Chinese nationals here on the HI-B visa program.

Due to Trump』s belief that American jobs are being taken by Chinese nationals here on various visa programs, he demands the hiring of American workers first as a requirement because 「[t]oo many visas, like the H-1B, have no such requirement.」

Per his new policy proposals, Chinese nationals applying for entry to the United States should be required to certify that they can pay for their own housing, healthcare, and other needs before coming to the US.

The J-1 Exchange Visitor non-immigrant visa offers cultural and educational exchange opportunities for people in China to participate in work- and study-based exchange visitor programs in the United States.

With Trump now president-elect, there is a high likelihood that the J-1 Visa will be abolished. In August 2015, Trump unequivocally stated that he was going to revoke it. Now that he has a majority in Congress, Trump will be able to enact legislation to abolish the visa.

Subsequently, there have already been restrictions placed on the visa. As of July 2017, Chinese students will not be allowed to enter the US unless they have a job already. However, it is doubtful whether Trump will be able to void existing visas. More likely, it will be the Chinese people applying for a J-1 visa over the next two years that will be affected.

Trump wants to control the admission of new low-earning workers from China. Before any new green cards are issued to foreign workers abroad, there will be a pause where employers will have to hire from the domestic pool of unemployed immigrant and native workers.

Trump has pledged to direct 「the Secretary of the Treasury to label China a 『currency manipulator』.」 President-elect Trump is by now a well-known creator of brands which have been used, along with his ideas of how to 「Make America Great Again,」 to gain enough support to get him elected. For example, Ted Cruz was branded 「Lying Ted,」 Marco Rubio was branded 「Little Rubio,」 and finally, Hillary Clinton was branded 「Crooked Hillary.」

 The reasoning behind Trump』s brand is that China keeps their currency (Yuan) artificially weak against the US Dollar, making it difficult for US manufacturing to compete with China in the market-place. According to his campaign website the Yuan is 「undervalued by anywhere from 15% to 40%.」 Given Trump』s position that China』s manipulation of its currency provides an unfair advantage over the US in global markets, it is thought to create trade-wars between the two countries.

Trade Wars Between China and USA

By branding China a 「currency manipulator,」 Trump believes that it may cause trade wars, thus raising the price of imports and shaking up the global economy.  Trump has stated, along with branding China a 「currency manipulator,」 he will levy a 45% tariff on Chinese imports.

If China is branded a 「currency manipulator」 and Chinese imports are slapped with 45% tariffs; it would increase consumer costs, drive down demand, and negatively affect Chinese manufacturing.

It is believed that China is responsible for roughly 10% of human influence on climate change. Within the past 30 years, emissions from fossil fuels in China have tripled. Trump has promised to 「Cancel Billions in Payments to U.N. Climate Change Programs and use such funds to Fix America』s Water and Environmental Infrastructure.」 With billions in payments being denied to the U.N., China will suffer due to less funds being directed towards containing CO2 emissions. Thus, the air quality in China will continue to worsen, creating more health and safety concerns.  

How Does America』s Withdrawal From the Trans-Pacific Partnership Affect China?

To 「Make America Great Again,」 President-elect Trump has vowed policy changes that would bring honesty and accountability to the American people. One of these policies is for America to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) within his first 100 days of office. 

On February 4, 2016, when the United States and 11 other Pacific Rim countries signed the TPP agreement, one of the most important trade deals negotiated in 20 years. China was the most notable country to be left off the agreement.

From its inception, the TPP has been considered by many as a strategic instrument to isolate or contain China. Given the country』s ambitions, the country has every reason to be concerned about the concerted efforts of the United States and other Asian-Pacific countries』 attempts to curtail its economic growth and geopolitical influence. With the agreement in place, but not yet enacted, the TPP shifted economic balances and alliances within Asia. The TPP will greatly increase the chances of Asian economies being tied much closer to the United States, and thus, negatively impacting the Chinese economy.

Therefore, if the U.S. withdraws from the TPP, the Chinese government, economy, and its people (both abroad and domestic) will no longer need to worry about a trade pact that could have severe economic effects on China』s ever growing economy. 

In traditional Chinese families, every generation of the family lived under the same roof.  Although family dynamics are changing, caring for the elderly is still one of the highest virtues in Chinese culture, and adult children are generally still expected to care for their parents in old age.  Hence, whether the elderly family member lives at home with his or her children and grandchildren, or in a nursing home, this cultural norm largely influences Chinese-American, everyday life. This is why the proposed 「Affordable Childcare and Eldercare Act」 is likely to have a significant impact on the Chinese community in the United States.

The proposed Act promises to relieve the burdens of elderly care on Americans by: (1) Allowing Americans to deduct childcare and eldercare from their taxes; and (2) Incentivize employers to create tax-free dependent care savings accounts for both young and elderly dependents.

This means that for Chinese-Americans with elderly parents living at home, the burden of caring for them could potentially be relieved.  Although the proposed legislative measure does not go into much further detail, for many Chinese-Americans, this could mean lowering the median cost of $91,000 per year to keep an elderly family member in a nursing home.  Although only time will tell how much of an impact this will truly have, for now, perhaps the Chinese-American community can appreciate the tiny sliver of hope the proposal offers.

In sum, the effects of Trump』s presidency may be far-reaching and widespread due to his controversial policies.

Even though many Chinese-Americans were for Trump, it doesn』t seem like Trump is for the Chinese. 

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