NASA 教授與呂大炯研究員關於地震預報的討論

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DISCUSSION ON EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION
BETWEEN FREUND AND LU

FRIEDEMANN T. FREUND: NASA GODDARD SPACE FLIGHT CENTER,
                                                   PLANETARY GEODYNAMICS LABORATORY
DAJIONG LU:                          AUTHOR OF THE BOOK 「EARTHQUAKE           
                                                   PREDICTION: MORE ACCURATE THAN WEATHER
                                                   FORECAST」

From :  Friedemann Freund <ffreund@mail.arc.nasa.gov>
Reply-To :  ffreund@mail.arc.nasa.gov
Sent :  Saturday, November 4, 2006 8:02 PM
To :  Dajiong Lu <dajionglu@hotmail.com>
Subject :  Re: Copy of New suggestion

Dear Professor Lu,

yes, I did receive your earlier email and I marked it with a flag to come back to it and reply…

… maybe I don't fully understand your methodology of narrowing down the prediction window in time and spac.

…

Please let me know what you think.

Friedemann

From :  Dajiong Lu <dajionglu@hotmail.com>
Sent :  Tuesday, November 7, 2006 4:57 AM
To :  ffreund@mail.arc.nasa.gov
CC :  dajionglu@hotmail.com
Subject :  narrowing down the prediction window
 
Dear Prof. Freund:

…
Now I answer your important question before you answer my question in my last E-mail dated on 11/5/06.

Your question is that I don』t fully understand your methodology of narrowing down the prediction window in time and space.

This is very very important question. My methodology is that 「observe impending earthquake precursor in real time」. At that time, my station located at Miyun Reservoir in the suburbs of Beijing. I stayed in the cave with my instruments 24 hrs per day. So I could observe real impending earthquake precursor. Therefore, I could get firsthand data of earthquake precursor in real time and analyzed them immediately and made earthquake prediction quickly.  I think other scientists couldn』t do so.

Secondly, I found the periodicity of impending earthquake precursor. It made me be able to make accurate prediction of earthquake. This is why I could narrow down the prediction window in time and space.

Thirdly, I explained my observation result using 「generalized strain」. So I surmounted the obstacles and continued to make progress.

…

Regards,

Dajiong Lu          11/6/06 

From :  Friedemann Freund <ffreund@mail.arc.nasa.gov>
Reply-To :  ffreund@mail.arc.nasa.gov
Sent :  Tuesday, November 7, 2006 5:32 AM
To :  Dajiong Lu <dajionglu@hotmail.com>
Subject :  Re: narrowing down the prediction window
 
Dear Professor Lu

Thanks!  This is very important information, which helps me making progress. I
still need to understand two things:

(i)  which precursors did you monitor in real time (probably it's written in
your book and I think you mention magnetic field variations but I would have to check it)

(ii) what kind of periodicities did you observe and how did you decide that the periodicities would end and an earthquake would occur?

I am very interested in the periodicities (or more or less regular
fluctuations) and what causes them.  What is you idea about the cause or causes of periodic signals?

Friedemann

From :  Dajiong Lu <dajionglu@hotmail.com>
Sent :  Wednesday, November 8, 2006 4:12 AM
To :  ffreund@mail.arc.nasa.gov
CC :  dajionglu@hotmail.com
Subject :  answer three questions

Dear Prof. Freund:

Now I answer your three questions.

1. Answer: Generally I observed three kinds of earthquake precursor: strain, earth-current and electromagnetic radiation in real time.

2. (How did you decide that the periodicities would end and an earthquake would occur?)
Answer:  It may be concluded that impending shock prediction may be defined as determining the time at which the precursors of same or different type simultaneously reach extremum in accordance with their sequential intervals.

3. The Mechanism and Cause of Formation.
Answer: Please see P.125 of book 「Impending Earthquake Prediction」. But I think this is the second Item which I』d like to research with you.
…
 
Regards,

Dajiong Lu          11/7/2006

From :  Friedemann Freund <ffreund@mail.arc.nasa.gov>
Reply-To :  ffreund@mail.arc.nasa.gov
Sent :  Wednesday, November 8, 2006 5:08 AM
To :  Dajiong Lu <dajionglu@hotmail.com>
Subject :  Re: answer three questions
 
Dear Professor Lu,

Thanks for the information.  I am still puzzled by your statement "...impending shock prediction may be defined as determining the time at which the precursors of same or different type simultaneously reach the extremum in accordance with
their sequential intervals."

I see in many data collected in the field that, after a period of intense and often pseudo-periodic activity (either magnetic, EM or similar), the signals seem to fall "silent" just before the event.  In lab experiments we sometimes observed a similar phenomenon with electrical measurements and infrared
emission.  My question therefore is:  How did you "decide" that you reached an "extremum" in one or several precursory indicators?

…
 
Friedemann

From :  Dajiong Lu <dajionglu@hotmail.com>
Sent :  Thursday, November 9, 2006 5:06 AM
To :  ffreund@mail.arc.nasa.gov
CC :  dajionglu@hotmail.com
Subject :  silent period and others
 
Dear Prof. Freund:

Thanks for your E-mail dated on 11/8/06.

First of all, I answer your questions.

1. You said in your E-mail that the signals seem to fall 「silent」 just before the event.
Maybe my instruments were more sensitive than others, so that my instruments could record impending shock precursor during 「silent」 period.

2. Your question: How did you decide that you reached an 「extremum」 in one or several precursory indicators?
Did you see my attached Figures of the book (Impending Earthquake Prediction)? After you see it and read P.48 of the book, maybe you can understand this point.

…
 
Regards,

Dajiong Lu          11/8/2006   

From :  Dajiong Lu <dajionglu@hotmail.com>
Sent :  Sunday, November 12, 2006 3:45 AM
To :  ffreund@mail.arc.nasa.gov
CC :  dajionglu@hotmail.com
Subject :  supplement
 
Dear Prof. Freund:
…

I have a supplement to my last E-mail about that my instruments recorded impending earthquake precursors in the 「silent」 period. Namely:
「High sensitivity」 of my instruments only is a necessary condition, but not a sufficient condition.
…

Regards,

Dajiong Lu          11/11/06        

From :  Friedemann Freund <ffreund@mail.arc.nasa.gov>
Reply-To :  ffreund@mail.arc.nasa.gov
Sent :  Sunday, November 12, 2006 5:40 AM
To :  Dajiong Lu <dajionglu@hotmail.com>
Subject :  Re: supplement

Dear Professor Lu,

…

I continue to find the "silence" before earthquakes a very interesting, but also troubling question.

Friedemann Freund                  

--- Dajiong Lu <dajionglu@hotmail.com> wrote:

Dear Prof. Freund:
 
…

Up to now I didn't find out any scientists predict earthquake like my past prediction. Did you find out someone predicted earthquake like my past prediction, namely, their earthquake prediction maybe more accurate than weather forecast?
 
with best regards,
 
 Dajiong Lu          11/21/2006     

From :  Friedemann Freund <ffreund@mail.arc.nasa.gov>
Reply-To :  ffreund@mail.arc.nasa.gov
Sent :  Wednesday, November 22, 2006 5:13 AM
To :  Dajiong Lu <dajionglu@hotmail.com>
Subject :  Re: FW: earthquake precursors
 
Dear Professor Lu,

…

I cannot judge the accuracy of your predictions because I still don't know
enough and don't understand enough how you arrived at your predictions. My problem is still how to reconcile the fact that the exact time of an earthquake is really "unknowable" because any earthquake is a process governed by chaos theory. The best one can do, I think, is to narrow down the time window and place where an event will occur.  What pre-earthquake signals can help us achieve is the narrowing of the time and place window. 

I wonder how the statistics would look, if you apply your prediction method to
dozens or maybe as many as a hundred earthquakes in different geophysical
settings. Probably you have done such an analysis, but I have not yet had the
time to absorb all this information.

With best regards,

Friedemann Freund    

From :  Dajiong Lu <dajionglu@hotmail.com>
Sent :  Saturday, November 25, 2006 7:04 PM
To :  ffreund@mail.arc.nasa.gov
CC :  dajionglu@hotmail.com
Subject :  funds and exact prediction
 
Dear Prof. Freund:

…

… I think you always have very good questions, also I think you could get very good answers from my book "Earthquake Prediction: more accurate than weather forecast".
Maybe you could borrow this book from somewhere, ...

with best regards,

Dajiong Lu          11/25/2006     

ARRANGEMENT ON FEBRUARY 2, 2008