強大的厄爾尼諾剛過又要返回？

強大的厄爾尼諾剛過又要返回？

 

 

 

地球上一種氣候現象稱為厄爾尼諾和拉尼娜。在正常的情況下，地球由於自轉而產生的克里奧力的影響，在赤道及附近南太平洋的海面上，在從東來的信風帶的吹動下，太平洋的海水往昔涌，在西太平洋的海面上集聚的水溫較高。

 

但在厄爾尼諾發生時，赤道附近的信風減弱，海水旋轉的方向改變，熱水往東去，而相對對的冷水往昔去。這樣，導致太平洋沿岸甚至全球的氣溫發生變化。

 

厄爾尼諾現象過去后，海水的循環方向有返回去了。返回時，有過調現象發生。這稱為拉尼娜現象。

 

這是南太平洋海水和空氣之間熱量交換之間的一種振蕩。氣候學上稱為「El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).」、地平幫們是無論如何也無法理解這種現象的！

 

這種現象可以類比一輛運動的車上放了一個洗澡盆。其中充滿了水。在車子運動時，水會向兩個方向不斷振蕩的，引起水面高低變化的。厄爾尼諾現象不同的是，伴隨著海水高低的變化，水溫是不一樣的。這個水溫高低的變化引起周圍及更遠地方的氣象大變的。

 

 

1，這是1997年和2015年太平洋海水溫度數據。這個溫度越高，意味著厄爾尼諾越強大。就是圖2中X軸上方圖線越高。在歷史上，意味著中國北方越極端乾旱。在後面的幾年內甚至導致人口大量死亡的！中國古代的黃河斷流，意味著朝代要滅亡的。其實是強大的厄爾尼諾現象來臨罷了。

 

厄爾尼諾期間，典型的影響是美洲北太平洋沿岸冬季溫度高。而中國的夏季時分，南澇而北旱。

 

這種現象以三、五年為周期的。自然，每次的強度和表現形式都可能不同的。最近強大的厄爾尼諾現象是1997-1998年，和2015-2016年的周期。其中，2015-2016為最強大的。並且，美洲北太平洋沿岸的氣象最為典型的。

 

1998年中國南方大水，淹得一塌糊塗的。

 

中國古代多次出現北方極度乾旱，黃河和淮河，人都能涉水過去。把應當是強大厄爾尼諾導致的。中國古代想象的風調雨順永遠是一種夢想。太平洋的振蕩永遠無休止的。

 

地球的氣候是疊加了這個振蕩系統的。要搞清楚氣候的真正變化的趨勢，必須濾除這個振蕩系統的。從數學上講，要用高頻濾波，去除這個振蕩系統的影響，才能顯示地球真正的氣候變化的。但具有數據的 處理上，這是異常困難的工作。那種一見到某地氣象變化，就大叫氣候如何如何的人，簡直就是天大的笑話。

 

氣候學家們靠衛星監察太平洋海水表面的溫度變化及趨勢，來判斷厄爾尼諾是否來臨的。通常情況下，拉尼娜之後，需要一段時間，厄爾尼諾才會來臨。但此次，好像是剛過去，厄爾尼諾現象有來臨的趨勢。這在現代的觀察中，幾乎沒有見到過的。所以，他們沒有把握厄爾尼諾會在如此短的時間內返回。他們目前僅是屬於猜測而已。

 

下面是他們寫的文章。

 

 

 

Return of El Niño will play a big part in summer, here's why

 

 

Dr. Doug Gillham and Michael Carter

Meteorologists

 

Wednesday, May 24, 2017, 6:00 -        How will a developing El Niño impact our weather this summer? Find out what you can expect for the next several months when The Weather Network releases their U.S. summer forecast on Wednesday, May 24

 

 

How do you develop a forecast for an entire season?

 

A seasonal forecast is very different from the day-to-day forecasts that you check to see if you need an umbrella or a jacket before heading out the door.  Seasonal forecasts cannot address the daily or even weekly details, but we seek to capture the essence of how the summer will be remembered.

 

The important drivers for weather patterns throughout a season seem abstract because they are things that we don』t directly experience every day, but over a three month period factors like water temperatures in the across the Pacific Ocean or air pressure patterns over Greenland can have a big impact on the type of summer we experience here in the U.S.

 

One of the biggest drivers of our weather on a seasonal scale from year to year is a cycle of water temperature changes that takes place in the tropical Pacific Ocean, from the coast of South America to the International Dateline. This cycle has two phases, with names that you are probably familiar with if you follow the weather regularly: El Niño and La Niña. Together they make up a larger pattern called the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO.

 

The strength of these two ENSO phases, and how quickly we swing between them, is one of the most important factors to analyze when creating a seasonal forecast. Although every ENSO event is unique and has its own distinct fingerprint, the current cycle stands out as particularly unusual. And because we haven』t seen this particular pattern before, it leaves us with some big questions about the upcoming summer.

 

What is so unique about our current weather pattern?

 

To answer this question we have to roll the clock back a bit, to the winter of 2015-2016. That winter was dominated by a phenomenally strong El Niño event, which at its peak intensity was equal to the 「Super El Niño」 of 1997-1998. The 2015-2016 El Niño was so strong that its after-effects are still influencing our weather today.

 

But it』s not just the strength of that El Niño that makes it so unique. Strong to very strong El Niños occur once every decade or so, and they have a well understood effect on North America』s weather. What makes the 2015-2016 event unique is what happened afterwards.

 

This chart shows all the big swings in the ENSO cycle going back to 1980. El Niño is the warm phase of the cycle, so El Niño events show up as sharp upward spikes on the graph. You』ll notice very prominent peaks in 2015-2016, as well as 1997-1998, 』82-』83, and several other memorable events, with weaker spikes in between.

 

2，在這個圖上，標識厄爾尼諾的強度。X軸下方的絕對值越大意味著拉尼娜現象越強大的。在涉及到的地球各種物理特性（海水及空氣）上講，拉你娜之後需要時間調整，才會有下一次的厄爾尼諾現象出現的。今年有打破此種限制的趨勢？不得而知的。至少目前如此的。

 

 

The downward spikes represent the cool phase of the ENSO cycle known as La Niña.  Some of the stronger La Niña events on record include 1988-1989, 1998-2000, 207-2008, and 2010-2011.

 

The ENSO cycle tends to swing back and forth between the warm and cold phases like a pendulum.  Typically, after a very strong warm phase we spend an extended period of time, often a couple of years or more, in the cool phase before the next warm phase begins.

 

Not this year though, and that』s what makes the next few months so unusual.

 

After the very strong El Niño of 2015-2016, we saw a very brief, weak La Niña event. It only lasted a few months, and peaked last fall.  Then during this past winter, temperatures began to warm again, as the cycle took an abrupt about-face and began to head back into El Niño territory.

 

This quick return to a warm pattern so soon after the last very warm event creates unique challenges for this summer』s forecast. Typically the La Niña event following a strong El Niño results in cooler ocean water temperatures across the northern hemisphere. This time, however, those cool ocean temperatures never truly got a chance to set in, and there』s still a considerable amount of lingering warmth on the map instead.

 

In straightforward terms, that means the normal rules don』t apply to this year』s forecast.

 

While the impacts of El Niño are a lot more evident during the winter, history shows us some consistent patterns during summers in which an El Niño was developing. 

 

However, we also have the have all that lingering warm water to consider, as temperatures hover above normal from the eastern Pacific to the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf Stream in the western Atlantic.  This pattern tends to impact global weather patterns in a way that is opposite to what we often see with a developing El Niño. 

 

So, as we head into summer the drivers of our weather pattern will interact with each other in a way that we have not observed as long as reliable records of global temperatures have been kept.

 

In a typical seasonal forecast, we use a technique called the 「analogue method」, where we look back through history to find years that had global patterns that were similar to our current pattern and study the weather that was associated with those patterns. This can give us very useful information on how the upcoming months might play out.

 

However, in a year this atypical, the forecast process is even more challenging as we seek to determine how the different pieces of the puzzle will fit together and interact with each other.

 

Please check back on May 24 for a look at our Summer 2017 forecast. At that time we will release the details on our unique summer pattern, and how it could affect you during the months of June, July, and August.

 

 

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