wcat

https://big5.backchina.com/?286159

美國是如何走出大蕭條的

作者：wcat 於 2011-11-10 22:40 發表於最熱鬧的華人社交網路--貝殼村

通用分類:熱點雜談|已有8評論

摘自Wikipedia，Google 翻譯，見　http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression

在世界上大多數國家，從大蕭條的復甦開始於1933年，[9]在美國，恢復在1933年年初開始，[9]但美國並沒有恢復到1929年國民生產總值超過十年，仍然有失業在1940年，儘管從1933年的25％的高失業率降到約15％。

經濟學家之間關於美國經濟擴張繼續通過羅斯福年（和1937年的經濟衰退，中斷）的動力沒有達成共識。

在主流經濟學家普遍的看法是，羅斯福的新政政策是造成或加速經濟復甦，儘管他的政策從來沒有侵略性，足以使經濟完全走出衰退。一些經濟學家已經也稱為注意力從性通貨膨脹的預期和上升的名義利息率，羅斯福的話和行動預示著規劃的效果。[39][40]這些相同的導致在1937年中斷的經濟衰退的通貨再膨脹政策的回滾。一個有助於扭轉通貨再膨脹的政策是1935年「銀行法」，從而有效地提高了準備金要求，造成了貨幣緊縮政策，有助於阻止恢復[41][42]國內生產總值在1938年返回其向上傾斜。

據克里斯蒂娜羅默，巨大的國際黃金流入造成的貨幣供應量增長是美國經濟復甦的重要來源，經濟出現自我糾正的跡象。黃金流入，部分原因是由於美元貶值，部分原因是由於在歐洲的政治局勢的惡化。[43]在他們的著作，一個美國，米爾頓弗里德曼和安娜J ·施瓦茨貨幣史也歸因於恢復貨幣因素，並認為，這是多少錢的管理不善，由聯邦儲備系統的放緩。美聯儲主席伯南克的現任主席同意貨幣因素，無論是在全球經濟衰退和最終恢復起到了重要的角色。[44]伯南克還認為，體制因素，特別是金融體系的重建和重組，發揮強有力的作用[ 45]，並指出，抑鬱症需要在國際視野檢查。[46]經濟學家哈羅德L.科爾和Lee E. Ohanian，相信抑鬱症四年后經濟已恢復正常，除了繼續令人沮喪的影響， [47]點手指缺乏價格和工資下降的靈活性，羅斯福政府的政策，如全國工業復興法鼓勵。

Turning point and recovery

In most countries of the world, recovery from the Great Depression began in 1933.[9] In the U.S., recovery began in early 1933,[9] but the U.S. did not return to 1929 GNP for over a decade and still had an unemployment rate of about 15% in 1940, albeit down from the high of 25% in 1933.

There is no consensus among economists regarding the motive force for the U.S. economic expansion that continued through most of the Roosevelt years (and the 1937 recession that interrupted it).

The common view among mainstream economists is that Roosevelt's New Deal policies either caused or accelerated the recovery, although his policies were never aggressive enough to bring the economy completely out of recession. Some economists have also called attention to the positive effects from expectations of reflation and rising nominal interest rates that Roosevelt's words and actions portended.[39][40] It was the rollback of those same reflationary policies that led to the interrupting recession of 1937.[41] One contributing policy that reversed reflation was the Banking Act of 1935, which effectively raised reserve requirements, causing a monetary contraction that helped to thwart the recovery.[42] GDP returned to its upward slope in 1938.

According to Christina Romer, the money supply growth caused by huge international gold inflows was a crucial source of the recovery of the United States economy, and that the economy showed little sign of self-correction. The gold inflows were partly due to devaluation of the U.S. dollar and partly due to deterioration of the political situation in Europe.[43] In their book, A Monetary History of the United States, Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz also attributed the recovery to monetary factors, and contended that it was much slowed by poor management of money by the Federal Reserve System. Current Chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke agrees that monetary factors played important roles both in the worldwide economic decline and eventual recovery.[44] Bernanke, also sees a strong role for institutional factors, particularly the rebuilding and restructuring of the financial system,[45] and points out that the Depression needs to be examined in international perspective.[46] Economists Harold L. Cole and Lee E. Ohanian, believe that the economy should have returned to normal after four years of depression except for continued depressing influences, and point the finger to the lack of downward flexibility in prices and wages, encouraged by Roosevelt Administration policies such as the National Industrial Recovery Act.[47]