周末財經縱橫(06/28/2009)

上周股市又是四陰一陽,
上周一世界銀行調低全球gdp預期,一下子讓s&p 下降3.1%,

隨後3 跌, 1 升,上周四,股市猛烈反彈使上周股市跌幅減小:
道下跌1.2%, s&p 下降0.3%,naz 上升0.6%.

雖然本周因國慶放假一天,但餘下的四個交易日會更加繁忙:
周二:採購經理指數(40,低於50 是衰退),消費者信心指數(57);
周三:供給經理生產協會指數(45),建築業支出(-0.5);
周四:就業狀況(減少345k 工作機會,失業率9.6%),失業救濟(+605K),工廠定單(+1.4).

股市到目前階段反應了經濟不再惡化,
假設經濟真的恢復了,年底在9000 點(道),我是相信的;
假設經濟停止在這裡,L 型,道的交易範圍在7500-8500;
假設經濟沒有恢復,道至少會從新探試6500.
我傾向於經濟真的恢復.

經濟的復甦取決於房事,房事估計開始見底.

 

本周股市的交易範圍我的估計在8100-8600.
估計本月離我的8000 點以下收市差150-300 點的樣子,
但是8000 點以下收市在7月會到來的,因為經濟和贏利不足以支持道在8000點以上.

 

行業板塊方面還是比較看好石油,因為用油高峰已經到來,油價的預計在桶/$75.

 

There is a river called THE RIVER OF NO RETURN
Sometimes it's peaceful and sometimes wild and free!
Love is a trav'ler on THE RIVER OF NO RETURN
Swept on for ever to be lost in the stormy sea
Wail-a-ree I can hear the river call [ no return, no return ]
Where the roarin' waters fall wail-a-ree
I can hear my lover call come to me [ no return, no return ]
I lost my love on the river and for ever my heart will yearn
Gone gone for ever down THE RIVER OF NO RETURN
Wail-a-ree wail-a-re-e-ee
She'll/He'll never return to me! [ no return, no return, no return ]