現在是買股票的最好時候嗎?
股市在
去年大幅上漲之後,還是不是一個進入和繼續持有的好時候?
如果你認為美國經濟肯定會復甦的話,那厶,現在還應該是一個不錯的買入時機,特別是在有不少的人在觀望的時候。如果大家都已經
參與了,並且都在賺錢,都能夠很「準確」地預知哪只股票會上升,而且他(她)的預測還真的是對的,那厶,就是你應該慢慢撤出股市的時候了。因為,在那個時
候,人們能夠做的事情就是動嘴,而他們手裡和口袋裡已經沒有什厶錢可以投入股市了。沒有繼續增加的對股票的需求,自然就是需求的疲軟,而疲軟的需求帶來的
就是價格的下跌。經濟學100就是這厶說的,事實上也是對的。
下面這篇文章告訴你,從技術層面和
歷史經驗等多方面看,目前的股市還是後勁不錯,是繼續買入的時候。況且,現在還有不少的人在那裡猶豫不決,這就是牛市的信號,至少是牛市發生可能性比較大
的信號。
再者,谷歌目前似乎是有問題,而我反倒覺得正是建倉的時候。逢低吸納,注意分寸,未來幾年穀歌可能會給你帶來不錯的業績。畢
竟,中國市場對它而言只是小菜一碟。再者,我相信,谷歌自己也是理智的,它應該知道自己到底在做什厶。
對於百度,不久前在股價剛剛突破500點時我還在想,看來是有機會衝破600點關口了。原因就在於「勢」,「勢不
可擋」。即使現在你覺得已經很貴了,如果你逆勢而行,可能會在短期內吃不小的虧。不過,你得注意,如果股價被預支太厲害,接下來需要調整和等待的時間也會
非常長。這和爬山是一個道理∶你爬得太快,中途需要歇息的時間也會越長。
關於這些哲理性的內容,我在自己的《價值投資∶股市投資制 之道》一書(崇文書局,2009年版)中談了很多。對於普通的長期投
資者,這些哲理性的內容反倒比那些複雜的技術分析還有用,還容易使用。
附錄∶Now is a good time to buy
stocks
3/12/10
| Marketwatch
LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- Historically, on average
there have been two particularly auspicious times to buy stock each
year. Right now is one of those times.
We are very bullish on
shares, and for the following reasons:
The broader market, best
measured by the cumulative NYSE advance-decline line and the number of
52-week highs, is leading the averages higher. A market seldom gets into
serious trouble when the average stock is outperforming the blue-chip
issues that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) and the
S&P 500 Index (SPX). In fact,
a peak in the advance-decline line and number of 52-week highs, proxies
for the average stock, normally precedes a bull market top in the Dow
industrials by at least four to six months, making it one of the better
long-term leading indicators. That this has not yet transpired increases
the probability that a bull market top is some months down the road.
Sector
leadership is constructive. Important broad sectors which are highly
sensitive to the economic cycle, such as the retailers and consumer
discretionary stocks, are showing strong outperformance. In light of
this, we do not believe that the economy will experience a double-dip in
the remainder of 2010.
A typical bull market does not end after
just one year, but averages between two and three years, depending upon
the measurement technique used. It would be unlikely for the bull market
to end now after just a one-year advance, especially after the severe
and lengthy onslaught inflicted by the 2007-2009 bear, whose wrath has
left many groups undervalued by historic measures.
Many stocks
are forming sideways price consolidation areas, known as bases.
Subsequent to an intermediate-term correction or bear market, this has
been our most reliable indicator of an impending intermediate-term
advance for the past 20 years. In fact, during this period, we have only
encountered one other instance in which the market fell apart and moved
to new lows despite the presence of many stocks building bases.
Especially bullish is the fact that more stocks are forming bases at
present than at any time since 1999, or before.
For the
intermediate-term participant, who holds a winning position from a few
weeks to a few months, recent breakouts in Acacia Research (ACTG), Acme
Packet (APKT), Agilent
(A), Agilysys (AGYS),
Albemarle (ALB), Altera (ALTR),
Anadarko Petroleum (APC), Aruba
Networks (ARUN), Atlas
Air Worldwide Holdings (AAWW), Baidu (BIDU), Black
& Decker (BDK), Blue
Coat Systems (BSCI), Cliffs
Natural Resources (CLF),
Cognizant Tech Solutions (CTSH), Cracker
Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL), Cimarex
(XEC), Dollar
Thrifty (DTG), Dr.
Pepper Snapple (DPS), Dress
Barn (DBRN), Eaton (ETN), Edwards
Lifesciences (EW), ev3 (EVVV), Express
Scripts (ESRX), F5
Networks (FFIV), Faro
Technologies (FARO),
Federal-Mogul (FDML), Fossil (FOSL), Gentex (GNTX), Green
Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR), Green
Plains Renewable Energy (GPRE), Imax (IMAX), Incyte (INCY),
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), JDA
Software (JDAS), JDS
Uniphase (JDSU), Liberty
Global (LBTYA),
Mellanox Technologies (MLNX), Mylan (MYL), Neogen (NEOG), Netgear
(NTGR), Nordson
(NDSN), Plexus (PLXS),
Riverbed Technology (RVBD), Rovi (ROVI), Sapient
(SAPE),
Shutterfly (SFLY),
Skechers (SKX), Skyworks
(SWKS), Salix
Pharmaceuticals (SLXP),
Sonosite (SONO), Trimble
Navigation (TRMB),
Viropharma (VPHM),
VistaPrint (VPRT), Walter
Energy (WLT), WebMD (WBMD), Whiting
Petroleum (WLL), and
Whole Foods Market (WFMI), to name
just 57, are all the evidence that is needed to know that the five-week
rally off the Feb. 5 wash-and-rinse day low has serious credentials.
Breakouts in many of the above Nasdaq names have been accompanied by
volume best described as not "middling" or "on the fence," but
"explosive."
Still building bases are Agrium (AGU), Bucyrus
International (BUCY),
Catalyst Health Solutions (CHSI), Cavium
Networks (CAVM), Ceragon
Networks (CRNT), Clean
Energy Fuels (CLNE),
Ctrip.com (CTRP), Deere
& Co. (DE), DirecTV
Group (DTV), Dover (DOV), G-III
Apparel Group (GIII), GSI
Commerce (GSIC),
Methanex (MEOH), NII
Holdings (NIHD),
SuccessFactors (SFSF), Veeco
Instruments (VECO), Virgin
Media (VMED), and
Waste Services (WSII), to name
just 18.
In summation, we are very bullish. We do not use
adjectives lightly, and cannot recall the last time the term "very
bullish" was used. Breadth, leadership, and Nasdaq volume are all
positive.
In particular, we like the fact that hundreds of
stocks are building, and breaking out of, sideways areas of
consolidation, known as bases, more than at any time since 1999, and
possibly longer. Short-term, the averages have been overbought for
eight-straight days, and thus deserving of a pullback.
Kevin Marder is a
principal of Marder Investment Advisors Corp., and was a co-founder of
MarketWatch. He is a contributor to The Gilmo Report.