Paul B. Farrell 是他的名字。
這小子還挺能寫,昨天面世的[10 Doomsday trends America can』t survive] 是他的第10本書。
他還曾寫有:
"The Millionaire Code"
"The Winning Portfolio"
"The Lazy Person's Guide to Investing"
"Super-Rich CEOs are killing your retirement"
"Tax the Super Rich now or face a revolution"
。。。。。。
大家評評,這說的是我們偉大的美利堅嗎?
([10 Doomsday trends America can』t survive]里描述的10種自毀趨勢(Doomsday trends)暴露如下。)
1、末日資本主義:美國夢、精神和靈魂的死亡
多虧前高盛公司執行長在2008年執掌財政部,欺騙國會注入數萬億美元挽救已經破產的華爾街,
它復活了,但顯然資本主義已經扼殺了美國靈魂。沒有人相信政府。不管是誰當選,都是財富、
華爾街和超級富豪統治美國,總崩潰正在到來。
來自佛蒙特的參議員桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)曾說,這個國家正在進行一場戰爭……美國最富
有的人正在向日益萎縮的中產階級開戰。他們要更多、更多、更多。他們的貪慾無邊;如果他們
積累權力和財富受阻,他們顯然不關心這個國家的未來。
1. Doomsday Capitalism: Death of the American dream, spirit, soul
After our bankrupt Wall Street was resurrected in 2008 — thanks to their Trojan Horse, an ex-Goldman CEO inside the Treasury conning trillions from a clueless Congress — it became obvious that capitalism is killing America』s soul. Nobody trusts government. And no matter who』s elected, wealth, Wall Street and the Super Rich rule America; total collapse is coming.
Why? Sen. Bernie Sanders, the independent from Vermont, said it best: 「There is a war going on in this country … the war waged by the wealthiest people in America on the disappearing and shrinking middle class of our country. The nation』s billionaires are on the warpath. They want more, more, more. Their greed has no end and they are apparently unconcerned for the future of this country if it gets in the way of their accumulation of power and wealth.」
2、 末日民主:「資本主義異變」扼殺民主
不要糊弄自己,民主已經死亡。「人人生而平等」只是一個政治虛構。在富人可以買選票的國家,
公眾沒有真正的發言權;天真的公眾很容易被操縱,當選官員有代價。
「看不見的手」不再為公共福利服務。今天,華爾街和貪得無厭的1%超級富豪統治美國。他們沉湎
於不受監管的里根經濟學自由市場,他們熱愛580萬億美元衍生產品的賭博,正是那種賭博引發
2008年崩潰。
2. Doomsday Democracy: 『Mutant Capitalism』 killing 『We the People』
Stop kidding yourself, democracy is dead: 「All men are created equal」 is a quaint political fiction. The public has no real say in a nation where wealth buys votes, a naive public is easily manipulated and elected officials have a price.
In 「The Battle for Soul of Capitalism,」 Bogle warned us the 「Invisible Hand」 no longer serves 「We the People」 nor the public welfare. Today, Wall Street and the insatiable Super Rich 1% rule America. And they are obsessed with restoring the same unregulated free-market Reaganomics that loves gambling in the same speculative $580 trillion derivatives casino that triggered the 2008 meltdown.
3、末日陰謀:華爾街接管,新的「看不見的手」
超級富豪總是能在某種程度上決定美國的命運、從陰影中操作。今天,華爾街、公司執行長、政
治家和福布斯400名十億級富豪公開操作,具有絕對權力和傲慢,造成全國靈魂腐敗。這種做法
沒有道德標準,具有諷刺意味的是它合法。因為財富可以很容易地買到有利於自己的法律,把不
道德、自私和腐敗的行為統統合法化。他們高價雇傭的說客遍及華盛頓、國會、政府監管機構
;而聯儲會有權利為超級富豪獲得獎賞,卻將負擔轉嫁到99%的納稅人身上。
3. Doomsday Conspiracy: Wall Street takeover, the new 『Invisible Hand』
The Super Rich have always had some hand in America』s destiny, operating from the shadows. Today, this conspiracy of Wall Street, Corporate CEOs, politicians and Forbes 400 billionaires operates openly, with absolute power and an arrogance that is corrupting the nation』s soul, their souls, your soul. This conspiracy has no moral compass , yet ironically, is legal.
Why? Wealth can easily buy favorable laws, making even the most unethical, selfish, corrupt behavior legal by fiat. And their high-priced lobbyists all over Washington, Congress, government regulatory agencies and the Fed all have the power to grab the rewards of capitalism for the Super Rich, while transferring the liabilities to the other, clueless 99% of America』s taxpayers
4、末日政治:超級富豪無政府主義者操縱美國
今天的華盛頓完全是無政府主義,是數萬名高價說客在玩的遊戲,他們要在美國預算中為客戶而
不是公眾得到最好交易。美國經濟是超級富豪無政府主義者在操縱。他們知道,唯一算數的選票
是在國會,而那種選票可以買到。
說客是「掮客」。今天26.1萬說客為特殊利益做交易,都在1.5萬億美元聯邦預算大餅中撈取盡量大
的一塊,包括特殊規定、免稅、貸款、稅務漏洞、專項撥款、機構任命、國防合同,這方面無休
止的爭鬥進一步鞏固超級富豪的權利和財富。
4. Doomsday Politics: Monopoly of Super-Rich Anarchists rules America
Forget buzzwords like oligopoly, plutocracy, socialism. Today Washington is a pure anarchy, a game played by tens of thousands of high-priced lobbyists squeezing the best deals out of America』s budget, solely for their clients』 interests, never the general public. Our economy is a monopoly of Super-Rich Anarchists. They know the only votes that count are in Congress. And they』re for sale.
Lobbyists are 「brokers.」 Today there are 261,000 lobbyists brokering special interests, all fighting for the maximum possible slice of a $1.5 trillion federal budget pie — special regulations, exemptions, loans, tax loopholes, earmarks, access, agency appointments, defense contracts, you name it — endless gambits that further consolidate the power and wealth at the top for Super-Rich Donors.
5、末日經濟:增長成為政治家的數字遊戲
曾經是經濟學和政治學中有特定含義的不增長就滅亡定理,正在受到「增長和滅亡」新研究的挑
戰,而奇異的數字騙局被經濟學家作為宣傳,掩蓋真相、操縱投資者、消費者、選民和公眾。
所有經濟學家都帶有偏見,為銀行、政治家、公司執行長、智庫或聯儲會工作,他們都有政治議
程。他們是講話作者,支持黨派的口號,忽視長期後果。例如,全球人口到2050年將增長50%,
但老派經濟學家卻裝作自然資源是無限的。
5. Doomsday Economics: Growth is a numbers game for politicians
The principle of grow or die, once a given in economics and politics, is being challenged by new 「growth and die」 research, while a bizarre numbers racket is used by economists as propaganda to hide the truth, manipulating investors, consumers, voters, the public.
All economists tend to be biased, work for banks, politicians, corporate CEOs, think tanks and the Fed, all with political agendas. They』re more speech writers, supporting partisan slogans like 「drill baby drill,」 ignoring long-term consequences. For example, global population will increase 50% by 2050, yet old-school economists keep pretending natural resources are infinite.
6、末日心理:行為科學承諾落空
回顧2002年,行為科學為投資者提供希望:心理學家卡納曼(Daniel Kahneman)贏得2002年諾
貝爾經濟學獎,將華爾街「理性投資者」的謎團曝光。他們的承諾:我們將幫助你們理解自己的大
腦,做出更好的決定。人們不夠理性,控制大腦才能成為成功的投資者。
錯了。從來都不是那樣。人們的大腦永遠都不理性。更糟糕的是,華爾街的變化總是超出普通人
許多光年,因為他們知道普通人脆弱,很容易操縱。他們也為自己的賭場聘用頂尖的神經科學
家。因此莊家總是贏。
6. Doomsday Psychology: The broken promises of behavioral science
Back in 2002 behavioral science offered investors hope: Psychologist Daniel Kahneman won the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics, exposing Wall Street』s myth of the 「rational investor.」 Their promise: We』ll help you understand your brain, make better decisions. You』ll be 「less irrational,」 control your brain, be a successful investor.
Wrong. That will never happen. Why? Because your brain will always be irrational. Worse, Wall Street quants are always light-years ahead of our home-school brain rewiring; they know you』re vulnerable, easy to manipulate. They also hire the top neuroscientists for their casinos. No wonder the house always wins.
7、末日技術:創新、衍生品賭場和怪異
先進的新技術、數學推理和神經科學都保證華爾街內幕人士在衍生產品賭場中穩操勝券,以普通
人的存款為槓桿。今天,華爾街更加著迷於在大幅動蕩中獲得高風險利潤。
普通投資者無法同華爾街的高頻率交易商相比,他們可以在這種偏斜的競爭場地獲得巨額盈利。
然而,天真的普通投資者卻繼續押注,儘管有人警告他們交易越多,掙錢越少。
7. Doomsday Technology: Innovation, derivative casinos, the singularity
Sophisticated new technologies, mathematical algorithms and neuroscience all guarantee Wall Street insiders huge margins gambling in their derivative casinos, leveraging deposits from Main Street』s 「dumb money.」 Today Wall Street is even more obsessed, grabbing for high-risk profits in a tough 「new normal」 of high volatility, increasing risks, lower returns.
Average investors are no match for Wall Street』s high-frequency traders who easily win by huge margins on this rigged playing field. Still, naive Main Street investors keep betting despite warnings that the more you trade the less you earn.
8、末日戰爭:五角大樓邏輯--人口+商品=戰爭
五角大樓預言,2020年戰爭將決定人類生命;到2050年,全球人口增長50%,超過100億。強大
的商業、政治和意識形態力量推動全球化。新興國家競爭稀有資源。五角大樓警告說,這是「國家
安全問題之母」。
動蕩不安將造成大規模乾旱,將農田變成沙塵暴,樹林變成灰燼。不是幾百年的漸變,他們可能
突然將氣候推到臨界點。到2020年,幾乎沒有疑問,某些戲劇性事件會發生。隨著這個星球的承
載能力萎縮,古老的模式將再次出現:針對糧食、飲水和能源供應的全面戰爭爆發,戰爭決定人
類命運。
8. Doomsday Warfare: Pentagon math: population + commodities = wars
The Pentagon predicts that by 2020 「warfare will define human life」 as global population explodes 50% to 10 billion in 2050. Powerful commercial, political and ideological forces drive globalization. Emerging nations compete for scarce resources. This is 「the mother of all national security issues,」 warns the Pentagon.
「Unrest would then create massive droughts, turning farmland into dust bowls and forests to ashes. Rather than causing gradual, centuries-spanning change, they may be pushing the climate to a tipping point. By 2020 there is little doubt that something drastic is happening. As the planet』s carrying capacity shrinks an ancient pattern reemerges: the eruption of desperate, all-out wars over food, water and energy supplies and warfare defining human life.」
9、末日歷史:這次真地不一樣--最終崩潰
泡沫/破滅周期已經納入記錄800年。但歷史的教訓從來沒有得到吸取。在繁榮時期,樂觀蒙住人
們的眼睛;人們否認風險。泡沫破滅,崩潰發生,我們總是能復甦。
但那種假定現在受到很多挑戰。金融歷史學家費戈森(Niall Ferguson)說,崩潰也許比很多歷史
學家想象的更快。財政赤字和軍事戰線過度拉長顯示,美國可能是個面臨懸崖的帝國。歷史上很
多國家在權勢、富有和光榮的頂峰期,領導人地位上升,頭腦發熱,自我破壞。
9. Doomsday History: This time really is different — the final meltdown
Bubble/bust cycles have been well documented for eight centuries. But the lessons of history are never learned. Euphoria blinds us in boom times. We deny risk. Bubbles blow. Meltdowns happen. We will always recover.
Wrong. Many now challenge that naive assumption. Financial historian Niall Ferguson comments in his 「Rise and Fall of the American Empire:」 「Collapse may come much more suddenly than many historians imagine. Fiscal deficits and military overstretch suggests that the United States may be the next empire on the precipice. Many nations in history, at the very peak of their power, affluence and glory, see leaders arise, run amok with imperial visions and sabotage themselves, their people and their nation.」
10、末日投資:后資本主義時代的生存策略
摩根斯坦利專家、對沖基金經理比格斯(Barton Biggs)曾經向超級富豪投資者提出末日策略。
他警告說,文明基礎設施可能斷裂。人們的安全港必須是自給自足,能夠種糧食、好好保管種
子、化肥和罐頭食品、酒、藥品和衣服。要準備對接近的盜匪頭目開槍,說服他們種地比搶劫更
為容易。但那種設想對於普通人來說很難實現。
10. Doomsday Investing: Survival strategies in the post-capitalism era
Former Morgan Stanley guru and hedge fund manager Barton Biggs, offers his Super-Rich Investors a doomsday strategy in his 「Wealth, War and Wisdom.」 He warns of 「the possibility of a breakdown of the civilized infrastructure.」 No hippie radical, he says 「think Swiss Family Robinson, your safe haven must be self-sufficient, capable of growing food, well-stocked with seed, fertilizer, canned food, wine, medicine, clothes. And be ready to fire a few rounds over the approaching brigands』 heads, to persuade them there are easier farms to pillage.」
But will that work for Main Street investors in the next meltdown/depression? Read our 12 tips and six worst-case scenario rules for average investors preparing for the doomsday scenario.