老美看美國：經濟政策的政治--理論和現實的對比

美國人看美國：經濟政策的政治

--理論和現實的對比

文/他爹  翻譯/ 丹奇

華盛頓DC關於經濟政策的爭論一直是圍繞著財富，減稅以及如何促進美國經濟快速發展而進行的。不幸的是，共和黨在最近關於經濟政策的投票和對促進經濟的立法所持的消極立場卻是拉了經濟發展潛力的後退。共和黨基本上是在投票反對他們自己支持了幾十年的那個政策。幾乎所有的共和黨國會議員對持續削減收入稅的政策投了反對票，而這個政策卻能使處於中產階級的一千六百萬美國人受益。也就是說，共和黨要對中產階級增迦納稅的同時，卻不想提高對只佔美國人口百分之一的最富有人群的稅收，其邏輯就是這些富人才是「就業機會的創造者」。 

不幸的是，他們錯了！不僅僅就政策而言，而且就這些相同爭論的歷史，以及過去30年來對同一政策的結果而言。共和黨持續攻擊現任總統和他的政策以及阻止許多這些經濟政策的實施實際上傷害了這個國家和成千上萬的美國工人階級。也許我會給現在的總統的總體表現評分為C等， 但是我要給共和黨的誠實度評為F級。自從總統宣誓就職以來，共和黨的策略便是想盡辦法讓本屆總統和他的政策失敗-然而這個策略傷害了這個國家，並使經濟復甦雪上加霜。

上述論點的一個很好的例子就是當年提高中產階級的稅收，同時削減或保持富裕階層（如共和黨所稱之為「工作的創造者」）稅收所發生的真正後果。顧名思義，中產階級不是富裕階層。他們沒多少存款，或投資。他們或許有一棟代表了他們最大投資的房子。他們基本上把所掙的錢用於養家糊口，只有少許的諸如一年一次休假的奢侈。如果對這些普通家庭增迦納稅，比如100美元一個月，那麼他們就沒有這100塊錢可以花。這是事實。美國是在40年代，50 年代60 年代中建立起來的。是通過中產積極的快速擴張實現的。中產階級賺的工資隨著技術，革新和效益的提升而成長。這些中產階級有家庭，買房子，支付房地產稅，從而建設學校和消防局，購買汽油，從而建設供他們開車的道路。擁有兒女且堅信兒女們長大後會比他們過得更好。

從一千六百萬人身上每個月拿走100美元，你是在很嚴重地損壞這個國家的經濟結構。他們沒有這100快可花了。如果他們不把這100塊錢花在雜貨店，或者walmart， 或Target, 或Macy』s， 那麼你會看到那些商店就會有更低的就業率，那些因為那一千六百萬人總體地低消費而失去工作的僱員就沒有錢花，從而形成就業減少，減少政府稅收，政府部門財政赤字增加的惡性循環，

這可不是啥好現象。

那麼，持續給那些富人減稅，從而使他們能夠投資並創造工作的說法現在已經證明是錯誤的。過去十年中，美國最富有的人們享受了萬億美元（對，萬億）的減稅，但是，工作在哪裡？他們沒有把這些錢用於投資這裡的新工廠或製造設施。為什麼呢？因為把他們的稅降到了歷史最低點，他們便沒有動力再去冒險了。我是啥意思？也就是說，富人的稅率越低，他們投資的風險就越高。低稅率導致人們更加保守。如果稅率為35%，富人投資一個新的項目，然而項目失敗，那麼他們將要承受他們投資額的65%的損失（他們可以在下一個納稅年度用當年的收入抵消損失。所以，如果他們的損失是100塊，就可以抵消100塊的賬。從而節省35塊錢的稅，他們自己投資的損失便是65塊錢。）所以，如果稅率是50%， 同樣的投資---他們的風險就只有50塊。但是，如果新的生意成功了，不管稅率多高，他們都增加了收入。如果稅率是90% （實際上100年前有過這個稅率），那麼，他們的風險就很小了。因為如果生意失敗，他們只是損失了10%（因為他們為下一年節省了90塊,他們只是損失了10塊錢）。如果他們下一年賺了100塊，他們就不需要交一分錢的稅。因為他們可以抵消上一年的損失。然而，如果生意成功，那麼他們的收入增長則是 數倍的---無論稅率如何！

富人高稅率（柯林頓時代是39.6%, 而現在是35%）創造了更多的投資機會，因為作為富人，投資就有更多的優惠政策，因為政府留用了你的大部分收入。當政府持有你的收入減少了，你也失去冒險的動力，因為你如果投資失敗，你下一年就沒有多少可以抵稅。更低的稅率意味著富人們實際上有更多的風險。

因此，如果你是富人，而且你的稅被減少了？ 存錢！不冒險！你根本沒有必要去冒險！

底線就是低稅率給了他們管理財富的動力，而不是創造更多財富的動力。高稅收迫使富人們用他們的資本製造更多，如果他們想多賺錢的話。

九十年代我們看到了技術革命—微軟，甲骨文，蘋果公司，還有許多其他的。技術革命改變了我們乃至整個世界的生活方式。最近十年（2000年到2010年）沒有看到新的發明---只是那些在「高稅率環境中」起步的技術公司的成長。其他主要的成長是在中國的巨大變化---她已經成為世界的製造商。創造工作的人創造了工作—只不過是在中國和印度，而富人們享受那些海外收入的特殊稅收政策使他們越來越富。但是，他們仍然沒有在美國創造工作，他們倒是越來越富有，而其他99%的人還在原地踏步。

當共和黨一直詬病總統那失敗的刺激計劃時，非黨派管理和預算辦公室（OMB）說這個刺激計劃挽救了近三百五十萬個工作。總統拯救了美國的汽車工業，挽救了壹佰肆拾萬個工作，而共和黨對此卻是尖叫反對。那麼，同樣是這些汽車公司現在正在創造利潤，逐漸拾回他們在過去15年裡沒有過的市場份額。而共和黨曾經想讓他們潰敗（這樣就可以傷害總統的經濟措施和總體經濟）。

自從「里根革命」開始，那些百分之一的富人們已經見到了他們的收入增長了百分之二百四十七。而另外百分之九十九的人收入只增長了百分之四十，連通貨膨脹的速度都跟不上。過去三十年來，工人階級的收入一直平平。

共和黨說，總統發動「階級鬥爭」要進行「財富再分配」（這個說法意味著要麼是社會主義，要麼是共產主義的政策）。共和黨沒有告訴你的是，過去三十年裡，財富早就通過失敗的經濟，稅收政策，以及對有組織的工會的打擊，而從中產階級手中重新分配到了富人的手裡。

共和黨，自稱是關心「家庭價值」和「美國中產階級」以及預算保守主義的政黨，除了發動不必要的戰爭，沒有支付的政府經費（比如處方葯法案），給這個國家最富有的人減稅萬億美元（對，萬億---一千個10億）之外，啥也不是！這個黨一方面要中產階級納更多的稅，卻要給富人更多的減稅。

共和黨的理論是公民必須支付他們的「公平份額」，這確實沒錯。唯一的問題是如何給公平下定義。百萬富翁和億萬富翁比 普通美國百姓使用政府服務更多。生產成品或進出口產品的富商們使用受過教育的人---這些人大部分都是進的公立學校。他們通過美國海軍出沒的海域進出口商品到世界各地。他們在其他國家開工廠，要用到聯邦政府去協助他們保持訂單，公平，解決問題，並且創造對他們有利的貿易政策。這些是與那些聯邦快遞的卡車司機相比，對富翁們更有意義的工具。

經濟政策在旁觀者的眼裡有點像藝術作品。但是一副醜陋的油畫總是醜陋的，大家都明白。這就是共和黨的經濟政策---一副醜陋的油畫，大家都心知肚明，只有畫畫的除外。

（原文）

THE POLITICS OF ECONOMIC POLICIES

THEORY VERSUS REALITY

By Tadie (December 29th, 2011)

The debate in Washington D.C. regarding economic policy has revolved around the wealthy, tax cuts, and how to get the U.S. economy growing faster. Unfortunately, the negative  stance of the Republican party in recent votes on policy and legislation to help boost the economy has held back the potential growth for the economy as a whole. Essentially, the Republicans now are voting against the same policies that they have supported for decades. Nearly all of the Republican members of Congress voted against keeping the payroll tax cut in place which benefits 160 million Americans, basically voting to raise taxes on that group of people – all the while not wanting to raise taxes on the wealthiest 1% of Americans based on the logic that the wealthy are the 「job creators」.

Unfortunately, they are wrong not just on the policy but also on the history of these same arguments and the outcomes of those same policies over the past 30 years. The GoP』s continual assault on this President and his policies and thwarting implementation of many of those economic policies hurt this country and the hundreds of millions of working class Americans.  Although I would give this President a 「C」 grade overall I give the Republicans an 「F」 in honesty. Since the President was sworn into office the Republican strategy has been to make sure this President and his policies fail – but that strategy has harmed this country and is making the economic recovery even more difficult.

A great example of the above statement is real outcome of what happens when you raise taxes on the middle class and reduce or keep taxes low on the wealthy ( the job creators as Republicans call them ). The middle class by definition is not wealthy. They have little in savings or investment. They probably have a house which represents their largest investment. They basically spend all they earn to support their families and have a few luxuries such as a vacation once a year. By raising taxes on the average famiy, by about $100 per month, they don』t have this 100 dollar to spend in the economy. That』s a fact. America was built during the 1940』s and 『50』s and 60』s by a rapidly expanding middle class that earned wages that kept growing with increases in technology, innovation and efficiencies. This middle class had families and bought houses and paid property taxes that built schools and funded fire departments, bought gas for cars that built roads for them to drive on. Had sons and daughters who they believed would live a better life than they did when they grew up.

Take away $100 a month from 160 million people and you seriously damage the economic fabric of this country. They won』t spend that money. If they don』t spend that money at the grocery store, or at Walmart or Target or Macy』s then you will see lower employment at those stores, and with those people who lose their jobs because of lower spending overall by the 160 million people they then will have no money to spend and it becomes a vicious cycle of reduced employment, reduced tax income to the government and growing budget deficits in all government sectors.

That』s not a good economic scenario.

Now, by continually reducing the tax rates on the wealthy ( the job creators ) so that they can invest and create jobs has proven to be false. Over the past 10 years the wealthiest Americans have benefited from a $1 Trillion ( yes, trillion ) tax break. But, where are the jobs ? They didn』t invest it in new plants or manufacturing facilities here. Why? Because by reducing their taxes to the lowest level in history they have no motivation to assume risk. What do I mean by that? Basically, the lower the tax rate to a wealthy person the more risk they assume when making an investment. Lower tax rates cause people to be more conservative. If the tax rate is 35% and the rich person invests in a new project and it goes broke they lose 65% of their investment ( they write off the loss on the next tax year against that current year income, so if they lost $100 they write off $100 against their income, saving $35 in taxes and losing $65 of their own money ). Now, if the tax rate is 50% and given the same investment – their risk s only $50. But, if the new business works out they increase their income regardless of the tax rate. If the tax rate is 90% ( which it actually as about 100 years ago ) then their risk is vey small  because if it doesn』t work out they only lose 10% ( since they save $90 on taxes for the next year. They only lost $10 ), and if they made a $100 in the next year they wouldn』t pay any taxes at all since they wrote off the loss from the prior year. BUT, if the new business was successful they would have the opportunity to increase their annual income many times over – regardless of the tax rate !

Higher taxes on the wealthy ( 39.6% during Clinton years vs. 35% now ) created an opportunity for more investment because as a wealthy person there was more incentive to invest because the government kept a larger share of your income. When the government share of your income is reduced you lose incentive to take risk because if you lose your investment you have less tax benefit the following year for write off. Lower taxes means the wealthy actually have 「more at risk」.

So, what do you do if you』re wealthy and taxes are being reduced ? KEEP THE MONEY ! DON』T TAKE RISK ! YOU DON』T NEED TO !

The bottom line is that lower tax rates on the wealthy create incentive for them to manage wealth – not to create more. Higher tax rates force wealthy people to produce more with their capital if they want to earn more.

The decade of the 90』s saw the technology revolution – Microsoft, Oracle Corp, Apple Corp. and many others. It changed the way we, and the world live our lives. The most recent decade ( 2000 to 2010 ) saw no new innovations – just growth from those technology companies that got their start in a 「higher tax rate environment」.  The other major growth was the huge change in China – as it became the manufacturer to the world. The job creators created jobs – they were just in China and India, and special tax treatment on those foreign earnings let them get even richer. But, they still didn』t create jobs in the USA, but they did get wealthier while the other 「99%」 stayed the same.

While the President has been deride for what the Republicans call his failed stimulus plan – the non partisan Office of Management and Budget ( OMB ) says the stimulus saved up to 3.5 million jobs. The President bailed out the American auto industry – much to the screaming of the GOP, saving perhaps 1.4 million jobs. Now, those same auto companies that the GOP wanted to fail ( which would also hurt the Presidents economic arguments and the overall economy ) are now producing profits and even growing picking up market share they haven』t had in 15 years !

Since the beginning of the 「Reagan Revolution」 the top 1% has seen their incomes grow by 247%. The other 99% saw their incomes grow just 40%, which didn』t even keep up with inflation. Income of the working class has been flat the last 3 decades.

The GOP says that the President is waging 「class warfare」 and wants to 「redistribute wealth」 ( a term which is coded to mean either socialist or communist policy ). What the GOP fails to tell you is that wealth has been redistributed, for the past 30 years from the middle class to the wealthy via failed economic and tax policies and the assault on organized union labor.

The Republicans, allegedly the party that is concerned with 「famiy values」 and 「middle America」 and budget conservatives has been nothing more than a party of unneeded wars, unpaid government mandates ( prescription drug bill ), and trillion dollar ( yes, trillion – a thousand billion ) tax cut to the wealthiest among this nation – and it wants to have the middle class pay more while giving more tax breaks to the rich.

The GOP argument that citizens need to pay their 「fair share」 is a good one. The only problem is defining what is fair. The millionaire or billionaire uses much more in government services than the normal American family. The wealthy businessman who produces products or imports or exports uses educated people – who most likely went to a public school. They import or export their goods around the world on seas which the US Navy is present. They work or open factories in other countries that will use the federal government to help maintain order, fairness, solve problems, and create favorable trade policies.  These are tools that make more sense to the wealthy than they do to the truck driver for FEDEX.

Economic policy is a little bit like art It』s in the eye of the beholder. But an ugly painting is always an ugly painting and everyone knows it. That』s what the GOP economic policy is – an ugly painting, and everyone knows it – except the painter.