老美看美國（五）為何奧巴馬2012年會贏？共和黨是如何自毀長城的？

美國人看美國（5） 為何奧巴馬2012年會贏

-------共和黨是如何自毀長城的

文/他爹  翻譯/丹奇

共和黨已經四分五裂了，就像加沙地帶的戰爭區。隨著共和黨候選人們在黨內提名進行的辯論會已經越來越近的黨內預選，很明顯的，「最右派最保守」的那個會贏。茶黨已經給他們的辯論注入了新的保守主義觀點，以至於每個候選人都在力爭成為那個觀點最右派的人。

前面幾場辯論下來，觀眾叫好的有以下幾點：

對大多數囚犯執行死刑（瑞克佩里—德州州長）

讓那些沒有保險的病人去死 （榮坡—德州國會議員）

對那個目前在伊拉克服役的同性戀軍官起鬨

為明顯把稅賦重擔向貧困或中產階級傾斜的計劃叫好

消除最低工資和取消工會的計劃

重新劃分國會選區，明明那個區的人口分布不符合規則，但要確保共和黨多數人的地方

獨特的新法律使流產變得非法（密西西比的新法即將投票表決）

那麼，對那些強硬派而言，這些都是很精彩的事情，基本反映了一部分他們那個黨派是誰的屬性。問題是這些觀點是如此的極右以至於在總統選舉中是不可選的。

選舉通常是由「獨立」選民決定的---一個觀點傾向於中間派的群體。除了一個人外，共和黨基本上沒有哪個候選人能夠打敗奧巴馬。這個人就是洪博培，猶他州前任州長，前任美國駐華大使。但是，他對共和黨陣營沒有吸引力。他太溫和了。他相信科學，不讓上帝統治他的政治，而是非常開明。

獨立選民確保我們不選一個極左或極右的總統。目前的這幫共和黨候選人使布希看起來像是一個溫和的民主黨了。共和黨陣營發現很難相信米特羅姆尼因為他太自由主義且翻來覆去。他們現在也不喜歡瑞克佩里因為他看起來太愚蠢無知，他允許非法移民在德州大學享受州內學費。現在民調領先者是赫曼可恩。即使出現性醜聞和明顯的知識匱乏，這個人在目前的共和黨候選人里還是領先的。這個人說過，我們應該在墨西哥邊境修建電圍牆讓那些試圖翻越的人觸電死。他還說我們應該在邊境修築水壩，放些鱷魚在裡面把那些試圖過河的人吃掉。也是這個人不知道中國有核武器，不知道「回歸權」問題指的是巴勒斯坦人，甚至拿烏茲別克地名開結巴玩笑。難道這就是我們自由世界需要的領袖嗎？難道這就是共和黨能提供的最好的人選？為何這個人在民調上能夠領先？

這個答案要在過去30年人口統計的政治版圖變遷里找到。自從里根成為總統起，共和黨右翼有了很大的成長，並且變得越加好戰，越加「白人化」,越加宗教化，越加積極使用軍隊作為政策的工具。當這些使得共和黨在過去的30年裡有18年佔領了總統寶座，我相信共和黨內部已經變得極端右派時，由獨立選民掌控的搖擺票將作出正確的選擇—奧巴馬的另一個四年，即使他在國內的成就記錄不良，經濟任然低迷，失業率任然很高。

共和黨在此次的選舉中可謂成功地搬起石頭砸了自己的腳。他們沒有很強的領袖，他們拒絕對聰明的人（洪博培）感興趣。共和黨變得如此熱衷於「文化」爭鬥，他們正在奪回白宮的政治戰爭中落敗。

2010年共和黨競選的綱領是更多的工作機會，更多的刺激經濟的計劃。然而，他們在國會和全國範圍內的立法卻是有關軍中同性戀，同性戀婚姻，英語作為本國語言，加深「我們信上帝」的口號，通過不延長債務上限幾乎將美國推入不履行義務的境地。所有這些也許是很好的政治伎倆，但是卻是糟糕透頂的國家政策，對拯救國家或提供就業機會絕對於事無補。

共和黨一直在扮演強硬的政治角色，他們陣營的選民被激發了。在換屆選舉中，他們得不到獨立選民的選票。奧巴馬將贏得另一個任期繼續當美國總統。事實上，民主黨可能贏回國會眾議院並成為參議院多數，因為右派的誇張和說辭在全國性辯論上沒有加分，反而進一步在財富階級，種族，企業主和工人問題上，分裂了國家，

發動「階級鬥爭」戰略的唯一一方是共和黨 – 這個國家不喜歡它 - 它會在2012年11月即將舉行的選舉付出昂貴的代價。

（英文原文）

WHY OBAMA WILL WIN IN 2012

And how the Republicans destroyed themselves

By Tadie (November 6th, 2011)

The Republican party has become so fractured it resembles a war zone in Gaza. As the GOP candidates for their party』s nomination for president debate each other and near the beginning of the primaries it has become more evident that only the 「most far right conservative」 can win. The Tea Party has injected their neo conservative view so much into the debate that each candidate must outdo the others to be farther right in their views.

During the previous debates the crowds have cheered the following:

1. Executing the most prisoners ( Rick Perry – Governor of Texas )
2. Letting uninsured sick people die ( Ron Paul – Congressman Texas )
3. Booing an Army Officer who is currently serving in Iraq because he is gay
4. Cheering tax plans that obviously tilt the tax burden onto the poor and middle class
5. Plans to eliminate the minimum wage and bust unions
6. Redraw Congressional districts that do not match the demographics of the area but rather to insure GOP majority
7. Unique new laws  to make abortion illegal ( Mississippi new law coming up for vote )

Now, to their hard core base these are all wonderful things and generally speaking part of their platform of whom they are as a party. The problem with this is that the views have gone so far right that it makes them unelectable in any Presidential election!

Elections are always decided by the 「Independent」 voters – a group that tends to be very 「centrist」 in their views. It would be virtually impossible for any of the GOP candidates to beat President Obama – except for one. That one person is Jon Huntsman, former Governor of Utah and Ambassador to China. But, he doesn』t appeal to the base. He』s too moderate. He believes in science, doesn』t let God rule his politics and is very cultured.

The 「independent」 voters keep us, as a nation, from electing Presidents that get to far to the right or the left. The current crop of GOP candidates make George Bush appear as a moderate Democrat. The GOP base finds it difficult to believe in Mitt Romney because he』s too liberal and a flip flopper. They don』t like Rick Perry right now because he appears, well, stupid and uninformed and he allowed illegals to have in state tuition at Texas universities. The leader however in the polls right now is Herman Cain. Even after a sex scandal and his obvious lack of knowledge this man leads in the polls of the current Presidential candidates for the Republicans. This man is one who said we should build a fence along the border with Mexico that is electric so we could kill those who tried to climb it. He also said we should build a water way along the border and put alligators in it to eat those who tried to cross it.  This is a man who didn』t know that China has nuclear weapons, didn』t know what the 「right of return 「 issue was for the Palestinians, makes a joke out of 「Ubeki  beki beki stan stan」 ( Uzbekistan ). Is this the kind of man we want to be the leader of the free world? Is this the best the GOP has to offer? Why is this man leading in the polls?

The answer to that can be found in how the demographics of the political landscape have changed the past 30 years.  Since Reagan was President there has been a growth in the right wing of the GOP that has become more and more militant, more white, more religious and more active in the use of the military as a policy tool.

While this has allowed the GOP to control the Presidency for 18 out of the past 30 years I believe that the shift in the GOP has gone so far right that the pendulum controlled by the Independent voters will make the correct choice – another 4 years for Obama, even though he has a poor domestic record of achievement and the economy is still very sluggish and unemployment remains high.

The Republicans have done a great job at shooting themselves in the foot this election cycle. They don』t have a strong leader and they refuse to be interested in the smart one (Huntsman).  The GOP has become so involved in the 「cultural」 battles that they are losing the political war of getting back the White House!

In 2010 the Republicans campaigned on more jobs, more programs to boost the economy. However, the legislation they have provided in Congress and across the country have been about gays in the military, gay marriage, English as a national language, reaffirming our motto of 「In God We Trust」 and nearly pushing the USA into default on its obligations by not extending the debt ceiling. All of these things may be good political tactics but it makes terrible national policy and does nothing, absolutely nothing, to solve the countries ills or provide jobs.

The GOP has been playing pure hardball politics and their base voter is excited. But, in a General Election they will not get the Independent voter on their side and Obama will win another term as President of the United States. Indeed, the Democrats may even win the House of Representatives back and increase their majority in the Senate because of the far right hyperbole and rhetoric that has added nothing to the national debate but has only served to further divide this country along class of wealth, race, business owner and worker.

The only party waging a 「class warfare」 strategy is the GOP – and the nation doesn』t like it – and it will cost them dearly in the coming elections of November 2012.