美國人看美國（二）：懲罰中國貨幣無助於美國

懲罰中國貨幣無助於美國

文/羅傑  翻譯/丹奇

10/14/2011

過去一周，美國參議院以壓倒性多數通過一項對那些為了其經濟目的而操縱匯率的國家進行懲罰的議案。雖然立法者們沒有明確點中國的名，但是此次投票矛頭直指中國。

關鍵是這個懲罰中國的觀點對美國沒有幫助，實際上對美國有害也對中國有害。雖然這個議案的通過在政治上是權宜之計，極受歡迎，讓每個人都感覺良好。但是這個時候這個行動的結果卻是不好估量的或確定的。因為如果或當人民幣對美元升值更多的話，很明顯有些事情將會發生。

首先，政客們和普羅大眾忽視的是中國在世界上購買的商品和服務就會更便宜。比如說， 我們以國際石油市場為例。國際石油市場是以美元標價的。現在，假如我們讓人民幣對美元的價值翻一倍—將會發生什麼情況呢？ 首先，石油價格對中國人已經降了50%（因為現在他們可以比以前購買兩倍多的美元），中國人可以用同樣的價格購買兩倍多的石油了。這就造成美國將要以更高的代價競爭全球石油供應。 由於石油本身是美國經濟的發動機。美國的製造業，每個人開的車，或購買任何產品—石油是等式的一部分。因此，所有的商品價格就會上升，對所有美國人來說通貨膨脹率將會顯著增加。

那麼，隨著價格比過去20年要增加更多，利率也會顯著增加。因為利率是由通貨膨脹率和真正的資本回報率決定的。更高的利率現在就會減緩我們的建房市場，並將減慢這個國家基本上每個行業因為住房，特別是住房是我們經濟如此巨大的一部分。

美元價值的下跌相對於人民幣將使中國產品更加昂貴，而且並不一定能在美國創造就業機會或把工作機會還給美國。因為中國相對於美國產品還是可以更便宜的—但是還是會比以前更貴。

因此，總而言之，美國參議院採取的方式將無助於美國，我個人認為只會傷害美國，以更貴的價格傷害美國人民，並且非常可能製造貿易戰，那樣的話，我們全是輸家！

（附原文）

Punishing China』s Currency Won』t Help USA

By Tadie  (October 14th, 2011)

This past week the United States Senate voted overwhelmingly to punish countries who in their view manipulate their currencies for their own economic purposes. While the legislation does not specifically name China the intent and spirit of the vote was all directed at China.

The problem with this view – punishing China – will not help the USA and may well indeed hurt the USA as much as it does China. While it may be politically expedient and extremely popular to pass this legislation and of course makes everyone feel good the results of this action are hard to gauge or determine at this point there are some obvious things that will happen if and when the Yuan ( RMB ) appreciates more versus the dollar.

The first thing that politicians and the general public overlook is that all the goods and services that China buys on the world market will now be cheaper. As an example let』s look at the global oil market. The oil market is priced in US dollars. Now, hypothetically let』s assume the RMB doubles in value versus the dollar – what happens? Well, for one the price of oil has gone in price for the Chinese by 50% ( since now they can buy twice as many dollars as they did before ) and the Chinese can now buy twice as much oil for the same price. It creates a situation where the USA could and probably would have to compete for global oil supplies at a much higher price. Since oil itself is the driver of the US economy and its manufacturing industry as well as everyone who drives a car or buys virtually any product – oil is part of the equation. So, prices of all goods will rise and inflation will increase significantly for all Americans.

Now, with prices increasing  more than they have in the past 20 years interest rates would increase significantly as well since interest rates are determined by inflation and some real return on capital Higher interest rates will now slow down our home building market which will slow down virtually every industry in this country since housing, particulary new housing, is such a huge part of our economy.

Also, the Chinese, with their new found purchasing power for cheaper dollars could buy more US A properties or companies – like oil companies – since now they would be only half the price they were before.

A declining value of the US dollar versus the RMB would also just make Chinese products more expensive and wouldn』t necessarily create jobs in the USA or bring jobs back to the USA since China may still be less expensive versus  a US product – but still more expensive than before.

So, in summary, the approach the US Senate is taking will not help the USA and in my opinion will only hurt the USA, injure US citizens with higher prices and very likely only create a trade war where we all lose.