特朗普總統對中國意味著什麼？- ROB SCHMITZ

特朗普總統對中國意味著什麼？

ROB SCHMITZ

中國國家控制的媒體對唐納德·特朗普的勝利的反應似乎近乎是欣喜的。新華社寫道，2016年總統選舉「發出了一個明確的信號，美國政治制度正在栽跟頭」，中央電視台定期客人張召忠在他的微博頁面蹦出「特朗普勝利了，正如預期！。

張， 解放軍國防大學軍事教授，是個中國海軍少將，他繼續寫道：「特朗普不遵守規則，他很難預測，但有一件事我敢肯定：他會把世界第一的經濟變成第二，是的，他會的！「

政治

這些是唐納德·特朗普頭100天要做的

作為一個候選人，特朗普被中國國家媒體認為是「小丑」，是不應認真對待的那些在競選中承諾對中國商品徵收關稅的人。但是現在特朗普贏了，中國的領導層很可能需要對特朗普總統做長期，艱難的觀察, 看他如何改變他們與世界上最大的經濟體（仍然是）的關係。

這不容易找到答案。與他之前的美國總統不同，特朗普沒有公共服務的記錄可以用來分析。他一路競選的口號從未改變過。

特朗普把中國稱為貨幣操縱者和骯髒交易機會主義者。

「我們不能繼續允許中國強姦我們的國家，」特朗普5月初在緬因州的競選站評論中國的貿易政策， 「這是世界歷史上最大的偷竊！」

除了激烈的競選修辭，還有顧問的暗示，特朗普總統對中國可能意味著什麼。加州大學爾灣分校的經濟學家彼得·納瓦羅（Navarro）是其中之一。

雙向

三種當選總統特朗普可能搖動貿易的方式

特朗普親自幫助用納瓦羅的書和視頻紀錄片， 「來自中國的死刑」，一個嚴厲的看法，來描繪中國對美國製造業的影響。這個預告片給出了一把中國匕首插進美國地圖並繪製血跡的特寫畫面。

「特朗普將永遠不會再在外交政策的祭壇上犧牲美國經濟」, 簽類似像北美自由貿易協定這樣不利的貿易協議，允許中國進入世貿組織，以及通過提議的 [跨太平洋夥伴關係]，納瓦羅本周早些時候在《外交政策》寫道。

為了打擊中國的地緣政治影響，納瓦羅和共同作者亞歷山大·格雷批評奧巴馬政府對亞洲的「樞軸」缺乏牙齒，承諾作為總統，特朗普將重建美國海軍，增加超過70艘艦船到目前的艦隊，以保護在南海的貿易渠道。

平行

一個謹慎的世界在尋找通向唐納德·特朗普的外交政策線索

這個評估似乎與特朗普的競選言辭背道而馳，他暗示重新評估美國軍事聯盟，可能使泛美在亞太地區結束。

當然，問題是，中國觀察家們除了特朗普的競選爭論和從沒見過他們老闆的顧問的寫作之外，沒有什麼可以繼續。這可能是特朗普自己還不清楚如何對待中國。

很清楚的是，比以往任何時候都在擴大國家的軍事能力的中國領導人，將更加仔細地觀察繼任總統特朗普。

ROB SCHMITZ

The response of China's state-controlled media to Donald Trump's victory seemed almost gleeful. Xinhua wrote that the 2016 presidential election "sent a clear signal that the U.S. political system is faltering," and regular CCTV guest Zhang Shaozhang gushed "Trump wins, as expected!" on his Weibo page.

Zhang, a military professor at the People's Liberation Army National Defense University who holds the rank of rear admiral in China's navy, went on to write: "Trump doesn't play by the rules and he's hard to predict, but there's one thing I'm certain of: He'll turn the world's number-one economy into number two. Yes he can!"

POLITICS

Here Is What Donald Trump Wants To Do In His First 100 Days

As a candidate, Trump was considered "a clown" by China's state media, someone whose campaign pledges to slap tariffs on Chinese goods shouldn't be taken seriously. But now that Trump has won, China's leadership is likely taking a long, hard look at how a Trump presidency may change their relationship with (still) the world's largest economy.

It won't be easy to find answers. Unlike U.S. presidents before him, Trump has no record in public service to analyze. And his rhetoric on the campaign trail has never veered from the vitriolic.

Trump has labeled China a currency manipulator and a dirty-dealing opportunist.

"We can't continue to allow China to rape our country," Trump said of China's trade policies at a campaign stop in Maine in early May. "It's the greatest theft in the history of the world!"

Aside from heated campaign rhetoric, though, there are hints from advisers of what a Trump presidency might mean for China. Peter Navarro, an economist at the University of California, Irvine, is one of them.

THE TWO-WAY

3 Ways President-Elect Trump May Shake Up Trade Policy

Trump himself has helped plug Navarro's book and video documentary, Death by China, a scathing look into China's impact on the U.S. manufacturing sector. The trailer features an animation of a Chinese dagger plunging into a map of the United States and drawing blood.

"Trump will never again sacrifice the U.S. economy on the altar of foreign policy by entering into bad trade deals like the North American Free Trade Agreement, allowing China into the World Trade Organization and passing the proposed [Trans-Pacific Partnership]," wrote Navarro in Foreign Policy earlier this week.

On countering China's geopolitical influence, Navarro and co-author Alexander Gray criticize the Obama administration's "pivot" to Asia as lacking teeth, promising that as president, Trump would rebuild the U.S. Navy, adding more than 70 ships to its current fleet to protect trade channels in the South China Sea.

PARALLELS

A Wary World Looks For Clues To Donald Trump's Foreign Policy

This assessment appears counter to Trump's campaign rhetoric, in which he hinted at re-evaluating U.S. military alliances, possibly bringing Pax Americana to an end in the Asia-Pacific region.

The problem, of course, is that China observers have little to go on aside from Trump's campaign polemics and writings from advisers who have never met their boss. It's possible that Trump himself isn't clear yet on how to manage China.

What is clear is that China's leaders, who are spending more than ever on expanding the country's military capabilities, will be watching President-elect Trump more carefully than ever.

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