老石

https://big5.backchina.com/?179872

Stocks on my radar screen for the week of 2010.08.16

作者：老石於 2010-8-16 13:28 發表於最熱鬧的華人社交網路--貝殼村

通用分類:財經理財

關鍵詞：

DISCLAIMERS: This is just for fun. I'm not doing real trading. Trading on most NASDAQ

stocks are gambling in nature, not investment, because they never pay dividends. If

you win, it means someone else looses. The only real winners are the stock exchanges

and the IRS.

THIS WEEK:

As the bad economic situations admitted by the government, the market mood has

definitely changed during the last week. DOW, Nasdaq, and S&P all produced a bearish

engulfing pattern on the weekly chart last week. All 2 of the 3 market indexes

closed last week below 50 Week MA. Only DOW closed barely above the 50 Week MA.

The week of 2010.08.16 is critical on whether the markets are going to bounce back

or having a crash.

Take S&P 500 as bench mark, if it bounces back from above 20 week MA, the bounce

back is still facing a formidable downward 200 week MA, and the bounce may be

back only to 1,200.00 area. If it slips, we may have a support at 1010.00.

But if 1010.00 area can not support the weight of crash by S&P 500, then we can

see 20 week MA cross 50 week MA from above, and the market could crash all the

way back to March of 2009 level.

S&P 500 2010.8.13

So, either way, if the market crashes, bet on short position will be more successful.
If the market bounces back, I may take some long positions for a quick play (will not
hold for more than two weeks). I will definitely liquidate my IRA long positions if
the S&P is close to 1200.00, but I would not even wait for that long.

With bearish bias in my opinions, I plan to do the following in the next week:
short the stocks that are 80% ~ 95 % closed to the 52-week high.

Ticker	Position	Entry Price	Stop Loss	Targets	Rationals	Review
PCLN	Short	298 ~ 300	303	245	Weekly doji after a big prior week jump. Daily and week RSI all above 70, showing an overbought situations.
WCRX	Short	29 or when price dropped below Daily 20 MA	29.5	26	Daily chart shows RSI overbought. Weekly CCI also showing (210), a way overbought situation.
ILMN	Short	47.00 or it just drops below 20 Daily MA	47.5	43	Weekly harami pattern. Daily inverted hammer, and closes below 9 EMA for 3 consecutive days. But I wonder if it would bounce back to 47.00.
CTXS	Short	58.7	59.2	54	Weekly overbought. Daily MACD is crossing.
BIDU	Short	83.50 ~ 84.50 or it drops below 20 MA	85	68	Weekly bearish engulfing. Both weekly CCI and RSI showing overbought. Daily MACD has crossed from top. This stock has shown more weakness that other four. If I were aggressive, I would consider shorting at the market open on 2010.8.16.
APOL	Long	37.76	37.45	39.93	Wait at the support level.
GRMN	Long	26.85	26.42	28.6	It's in the support level.
PAYX	Long	24	23.82	25.35	Wait at the support level