智商不同導致中美兩種截然不同的振興道路和不同的國際地位

智商不同導致中美兩種截然不同的振興道路和不同的國際地位
美國總統大選年間，經濟前景愈趨黯淡，民主、共和兩黨的國會領袖前日舉行緊急會議，加快磋商救市方案，雙方罕有地放下歧見尋求共識，樂觀預料一個月內可推出耗資1000億至1250億美元的振興經濟方案，美國總統布希和聯邦儲備委員會主席本·伯南克（Ben Bernanke）17日表示支持經濟振興計劃以扭轉美國經濟衰退趨勢。伯南克說這樣的計劃將很快執行，以在短期內防止美國財政問題複雜化。　　
出席眾議員預算委員會的美國聯邦儲備官員說，這個計劃包括將資金放入美國家庭手中，並保證這些家庭在短期內使用這些資金，並稱這一措施要比任何其它條款都要有效。伯南克預測說，2008年美國經濟將有緩慢增長而不是衰退。
　　伯南克明確表明支持經濟振興方案的理念，其中很有可能包含退稅政策，但他並不看好布希的永久稅務減免計劃。伯南克強調，他不支持將長期的減稅方案變成永久性的提議。在此前，布希政府與許多共和黨議員均同意接受退稅，包括增加對中小企業暫時免稅的額度，如投資減稅額，白宮與共和黨認為如此將有助於投資；另一方面，白宮也希望藉機讓國會通過2001年與2003年減稅方案全面化的立法，讓它們成為永久方案。
　　經濟問題不只讓華爾街蒙受損失，也增加了選民的顧慮，因此，兩黨的總統參選人均提出自己的經濟政策，希望獲得選民支持。經濟困境對兩年前接下美聯儲主席一職的伯南克來說也是個大挑戰。伯南克上周已暗指美聯儲將在1月30日結束的會議中做出進一步的降息決定。伯南克1月17日作證時再度強調，若要刺激經濟，大幅降息是必要的手段。許多經濟學家相信美聯儲在本月底的降息幅度將會降息50個基點，目前的利率為4.25％。去年美聯儲從9月開始便做了三次的降息動作，但華爾街等地的批評者抱怨伯南克行動太慢、且力度不夠。
　　伯南克稱，財政振興計劃應該儘快實行，這樣才可以在以後的一年中起到作用，退稅旨在將錢儘快還給消費者，這樣才可以推進消費增長，給經濟帶來活力。此外，他還說，財政計劃應該暫時避免帶給聯邦政府預算赤字以及長期財政負擔。
　　白宮發言人托尼·弗蘭多（Tony Fratto）說，總統相信在短期內要想解決目前的經濟問題是需要一些推進措施的。這是第一次白宮明確肯定布希支持政府干預。直到目前為止，白宮只是表示，布希在考慮一些短期的刺激措施。但弗蘭多拒絕給出總統宣布振興計劃的時間。
　　布希和國會領導人的電話會議預計會加速經濟振興計劃的出爐。眾議院發言人南希·佩洛西（Nancy Pelosi）和共和黨領袖約翰·波伊納爾（John Boehner）16日承諾以立法形式振興美國經濟。很多經濟學家相信，聯邦儲備委員會將降低他們的利率。此外，民主黨和共和黨都相信退稅政策將會是計劃中的一部分。

WASHINGTON - President Bush, acknowledging the risk of recession, embraced about $145 billion worth of tax relief Friday to give the economy a "shot in the arm. "

Bush said such a growth package must also include tax incentives for business investment and quick tax relief for individuals. And he said that to be effective, an economic stimulus package would need to roughly represent 1 percent of the gross domestic product — the value of all U.S. goods and services and the best measure of the country's economic standing.

"There is a risk of a downturn," the president said in his remarks at the White House.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, speaking after Bush's remarks, said 1 percent of GDP would equate to $140 billion to $150 billion, which is along the lines of what private economists say should be sufficient to help give the economy a short-term boost.

Paulson said the largest part of the stimulus package would be targeted to individual taxpayers. One Republican official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Bush was hoping to target about $100 billion toward individuals and about $50 billion toward businesses.

The president and Congress are scrambling to take action as fears mount that a severe housing slump and painful credit crisis could cause people to close their wallets and businesses to put a lid on hiring, throwing the nation into its first recession since 2001.

Bush said that Congress and the administration need to settle on a temporary economic package that could be implemented quickly to "keep our economy growing and create jobs." While Bush focused on taxes, Democratic and Republican leaders in Congress have been working on a package that would also include extending and perhaps increasing unemployment benefits and a temporary increase in food stamps.

"Letting Americans keep more of their money should increase consumer spending," he said.

Bush outlined several criteria for the package to meet: It must be "big enough to make a difference in an economy as large and dynamic as ours," it must be built on "broad-based tax relief," it must take effect right away but be temporary, and it must not include any tax increases.

Specifically, he called for tax incentives for businesses, including small companies, to make new and major investments this year. "Giving them an incentive to invest now will encourage business owners to expand their operations, create new jobs and inject new energy into our economy in the process," Bush said.

He also called for tax relief for individuals — probably to come in the form of one-time rebates. But he did not say how much money Americans would get to keep or the amount of other tax incentives that could be in the package. Nor did Bush detail how the nation would pay for such a plan.

"Americans can spend this money as they see fit: to help meet their monthly bills, cover higher costs at the gas pump, pay for other basic necessities," he said.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., has talked of a package totaling $100 billion or more. House Republican leader John Boehner of Ohio spoke of a bill in the range of $100 billion to $150 billion. Aides have said Bush does not believe the stimulus spending should be offset — or paid for — by any tax or spending changes elsewhere. Some deficit hawks want this but isn't expected to be part of any package.

Speaking for about seven minutes, Bush called passing a growth package "our most pressing economic priority." But he also used his announcement to defend his tax cuts, which are set to expire unless the Democratic-led Congress opts to extend them.

He acknowledged Americans' fears of an economic downturn.

"The economy's still creating jobs, though at a reduced pace," he said. "Consumer spending is still growing, but the housing market is declining. Business investment and exports are still rising, but the cost of imported oil has increased."

He said his advisers and many outside experts expect that the U.S. economy will continue to grow over the coming year, but at a slower rate than the past few years.

"Continued instability in the housing and financial markets could cause additional harm to our overall economy and put our growth and job creation in jeopardy," he said.

Bush said markets rise and fall, and there are times when swift, temporary action by the government can help ensure that market fluctuations do not undermine the economy. "This is such a moment," he said.

"We're in the midst of a challenging period," Bush said. "And I know that Americans are concerned ... But our economy has seen challenging times before. It is resilient."

Bush has gone down the tax rebate road before. Back in 2001, he added refunds of up to $300 per individual and $600 per household as a recession-fighting element of the tax cut plan that had been the centerpiece of his 2000 campaign.

Economists said a reasonable range for tax cuts in the new package might be $500 to $1,000. A White House plan is looking at rebates of up to $800 for individuals and $1,600 for married couples.

Bush first signaled his support for the approach of income tax rebates for people and tax breaks for business investment in a conference call Thursday with bipartisan congressional leaders.

Democratic congressional leaders agree that tax relief should be in the package, but are working on a broader measure that would also include aid targeted to the poor and unemployed.

White House deputy press secretary Tony Fratto said there are many ways to get quick agreement. Bush chose to lay out "principles" with few specifics to the American people now, while bipartisan negotiations with Capitol Hill are taking place privately. The White House feels Bush was out of the mix for too long, because he was away for eight days in the Mideast while Democratic leaders talked almost daily about the need to stimulate the economy — and how.

The White House scheduled Bush to talk about a stimulus package twice on Friday. After the Roosevelt Room appearance, he left for a visit at a Frederick, Md., manufacturing plant.

Wall St. firms pay record bonuses despite huge losses

Wall Street's five biggest firms are paying a record $39 billion US in bonuses for 2007, a year when three of the companies suffered the worst quarterly losses in their history and shareholders lost more than $80 billion.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch & Co., Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Bear Stearns Cos. together awarded $65.6 billion in compensation and benefits last year to their 186,000 employees. That means year-end bonuses, at 60 per cent of the total, exceeded the $36 billion distributed in 2006 when the industry reported all-time high profits.

The New York-based firms, which shed 25 per cent of their equity value during 2007, have said they're eliminating at least 6,200 jobs amid mounting losses from the collapse of the subprime mortgage market. The payouts come as the U.S. economy slows, with unemployment rising, retail sales declining and new home foreclosures surging to a record.

"To many people, it will be shocking and questionable," said Jeanne Branthover, managing director of Boyden Global Executive Search in New York.

"People in New York in the world of investment banking will understand it. It's critical that pay is still there or you're going to lose really good people."

The industry's bonuses are larger than the gross domestic products of Sri Lanka, Lebanon or Bulgaria, and the average bonus of $219,198 is more than four times higher than the median U.S. household income in 2006, according to data compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Shareholders in the securities industry endured their worst year since 2002, as Merrill and Bear Stearns slumped more than 40 per cent in New York trading and the chief executive officers at both firms gave up their jobs.

Morgan Stanley fell 21 per cent and Lehman dropped 16 per cent.

Only Goldman rose, gaining 7.9 per cent.

"Wall Street firms have always been run, and likely always will be run, for the upper-level management, not for the shareholders," said James Ellman, who manages about $200 million, including stock in Morgan Stanley and Merrill, at San Francisco-based SeaCliff Capital.

Merrill, the largest U.S. brokerage, posted a record fourth-quarter loss of $9.83 billion Thursday, bringing the net loss for the five firms to $10.2 billion and reducing the combined net income for the full year to $11.5 billion, the lowest since 2002.

Goldman earned $11.6 billion last year, more than the $11.2 billion combined profit reported by Morgan Stanley, Lehman, Bear Stearns and New York-based Citigroup Inc., the biggest U.S. bank.

Merrill lost more in the past two quarters than it earned in the previous six. Its full-year loss of $7.8 billion was greater than the firm's 2006 profit.

Merrill paid $15.9 billion of compensation and benefits for 2007, exceeding the company's $11.3 billion of revenue.

While combined revenue for the five firms dropped 13 per cent to $110 billion, compensation and benefits grew 8.7 per cent.

Bonuses for 2007 probably will mark a high point as revenue declines stretch into this year, said Charles Geisst, a finance professor at Manhattan College in Riverdale, N.Y.

"The gilded age just ended," he said.

"Ferrari dealers are going to be selling Tata cars. I think this is going to be the worst year we've had in a very long time."

布希或向納稅人退稅三至八百美元

倍可親(backchina.com)美國布希政府將採取緊急措施拯救美國經濟陷入衰退，有可能包括向繳稅者退還300至800美元現金，激勵疲弱的消費市場。

外電報道聯儲局主席貝南克建議布希總統刺激國內經濟，就須把金錢退給消費者。據悉，全美三分二家庭將獲得300至800美元退稅、一對夫婦更達1,600美元、寬減公司設備投資稅等。

布希18日討論振興美國經濟的方案，但白宮發言人17日強調內容不會涉及具體細節。

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