流亡藏人人口數據 (updated)

please refer the original post at :

http://club.backchina.com/main/v ... &extra=page%3D4

here are some numbers from the "tibet government in exile":

1) roughly 80,000 followers escaped to dharamsala, india, in 1959. let's use the number 80,000 ("the Dalai Lama and some 80,000 Tibetans crossed the Himalaya to seek refuge in India, Nepal and Bhutan in 1959").
2) roughly 2000~2500 tibetans sneaked out and join dalai lama, according to the "tibet government in exile" ("An average of 2000 to 2500 Tibetans come to exile in India every year. More than 44 percent of them are teenagers and young adults (age 14-25), Thirty three percent adults (26-59), More than 17 percent young children   (0-13) and only 5 percent are over the age of sixty."). to boost the case for the "tibet government in exile", let's put the number 3000.
3) most recent available census from the "tibet government in exile" for the tibetan exiles (global figure) is roughly around 125,000 ("Today, after more then four decades in exile, there are now total of 12,2078 (TDS*) number of Tibetan population living worldwide.")
4) most recent available census from the "tibet government in exile", roughly 112297 monks and nuns ("there are 223 monasteries and 15 nunneries with 11067 monks and 1230 nuns"), outside of tibet, china. let's put the number to 13000.

let's assume most of those followers in 1959 were NOT lamas (well, most of those were).

in nowadays tibet, the rate of population growth is 1.3%. for the rate of population growth of india, it is about 1.5% (we don't have the rate of population growth for tibetan exiles). let's use the mean value of 1.4% to calculate the population growth of the tibetan exiles.

1) the population growth from those 80,000 (1959) after the 50 years (1959-2009) should be:

80,000 *（1+1.4%)^50=160320 let's make it 170,000 so that it would be in favor of the "tibet government in exile".

2) for those 3000 escapees joined dalai every year(so claimed by the "tibet government in exile"), the population growth after 50 years (1959-2009) should be:

3000*(1.014+1.014^2+1.014^3+1.014^4+.....1.014^50)=3000*(1-1.014^50)/(1-1.014)=215142.88. let's say 216,000

so the overall population growth, according to the dalai lama side figure should be:

170000+216000=386,000.

the numbers above are under assumption that those monks married those nuns.

now the number 125,000 (census by the "tibet government in exile") and the calculated number 386,000 according to the junior high math don't seem to match. with nuns and monks are only about 13,000, which is less than10% of 125000 offered by the "tibet government in exile". even with that, still can't explain this huge discrepancy. where do those rest of 261,000 go?

now we have a $1,000 question, where are the problems?

could be:

1) not that many followers as the "tibet government in exile" claimed.
2) the life in abroad for those exiles is so bad that the tibetan exiles actually have negative population growth (almost 2/3 of exiles died? it is thought they suppose to have better human rights after the exile).

the above based on the sources of the origin:

http://www.arcytech.org/java/population/facts_math.html
http://www.geography.org.uk/download/GA_Conf07Paljor.doc

the data above raised the serious question on the claims by the so-called the "tibet government in exile"

[ 本帖最後由 snortbsd 於 2008-4-18 10:26 編輯 ]

No, the tibetan growth rate is much more than 1.3%. During 1980's, it is 1.7%. It is only recently that this rate goes down. The average growth rate since 1959 is at least 1.5%. Make some google search for the official data; I have lost my source.

The "government in exile" has nothing to justify a lower growth rate for exile tibetans.

Here is a source:

http://info.tibet.cn/focus2008/2008xzssysz/mzrkzj/t20080129_295909.htm

The tibetan population has exactly doubled between 1964 and 2000, according to official
sensus data.

原帖由 他行車 於 2008-4-17 04:41 發表
No, the tibetan growth rate is much more than 1.3%. During 1980's, it is 1.7%. It is only recently that this rate goes down. The average growth rate since 1959 is at least 1.5%. Make some google  ...

tibetans in tibet, china?

ok, why don't you find something (i don't know how type chinese on computer) so that i can put them in englsih. also could you enlist people to search any activities during 1912~1950 in the region of tibet? some of my american friends, they absolutely believed that dalai's claim that tibet was an independent country during that period. i need a certain international events, diplomatic activities during that period. for example, someone mentioned before that some foreigners got to tibet during that period, but they got permissions from then KMT government. it is a great piece of information but with no origin of the source. i can't use that.

chinese government, as usual, always disappoint me. those people on the positions but do nothing. it is so damn hard to find anything useful for the "battle" we are engaging. one of my american friends in china told me she could not access youtube and some english web sites. she is in a fairly small city. the big cities don't seem to have this problems. why is the hell that for? couldn't be any dumber than this. those local governments are the worst bureaucracies. not wonder the central government has hard time to execute its policies.

let's collect information as much as possible. i can get it organized and translate them into english. also we must find out the source of origins for any information we are going to use so that to guarantee the authentication of the information.

[ 本帖最後由 snortbsd 於 2008-4-17 12:37 編輯 ]

原帖由 他行車 於 2008-4-17 04:54 發表
Here is a source:

http://info.tibet.cn/focus2008/2 ... 20080129_295909.htm

The tibetan population has exactly doubled between 1964 and 2000, according to official
sensus data.

thanks, i will take a look at it ...

hi 他行車:

歷史上，由於天災頻仍，疫病不斷，醫療條件差，加之占人口相當比例的僧尼不從事人口生產，西藏的人口長期處於負增長，甚至持續銳減。據文獻記載，從7世紀到18世紀，藏族總人口減少了800萬，而從18世紀到20世紀中葉的200年時間，西藏地區的人口又驟降了約80萬。

where does this information come from? i wish it could give the source of the origin of this 文獻.

without this, the translation would not be so convincing.

原帖由 snortbsd 於 2008-4-17 13:57 發表
hi 他行車:



where does this information come from? i wish it could give the source of the origin of this 文獻.

without this, the translation would not be so convincing.

Sorry, I am not the author. I just googled.

I suggest that you take a look into wikipedia (English version). There are some interesting things, such as the CIA who estimates that the 1959 uprising failed mainly bacause of the lack of support by the tibetan population. On the other hand, there are other ridiculous claims that need to be analized and demolished, such as the estimation by the ZD that the tibetan population has droped between 1959 and 2000.

中國人口普查數據:

http:///www.stats.gov.cn/tjgb/rkpcgb/qgrkpcgb/t20020404_16767.htm

http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjgb/rkpcgb/qgrkpcgb/t20020404_16768.htm

第一次普查(1953), 藏人 2775622
第二次普查(1964), 藏人 2501174

不可否認, 在兩次普查之間藏人人口減少了. 可能原因: 戰爭, 逃亡, 飢餓. 但ZD所稱的1959年有630萬藏人是必須予以駁回的 (見English wikipedia西藏頁有關人口的部分). 他們把西康省(現已取消)和青海省在第一次普查時的總人口都算成藏人了. 哪位能到wikipedia上加個注, 說明一下?

待證: 1953年第一次普查的西藏人口數據為西藏地方政府的估算值. 與以後的精確普查沒有可比性.

當時達賴簡單地給了一個一百萬的整數.

[ 本帖最後由 他行車 於 2008-4-17 17:16 編輯 ]

原帖由 他行車 於 2008-4-17 16:58 發表
中國人口普查數據:

http:///www.stats.gov.cn/tjgb/rkpcgb/qgrkpcgb/t20020404_16767.htm

http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjgb/rkpcgb/qgrkpcgb/t20020404_16768.htm

第一次普查(1953), 藏人 2775622
第二次 ...

great!!! i am looking into thsi...

to 他行車 #8 and #9:

1) the discrepancy between 第一次普查(1953) and 第二次普查(1964) could be due to the definition of the 藏族 (tibetan) back to 1953. from another post, there seem to have 6 different ethnic groups living in tibet. could you count them out? let's say, 藏族, 蒙古族, 回族, 滿族, 漢族...  what else? is MENGBA a part of ethnic tibetans?
2) another possible reason is the migration
3) but  this 第一次普查(1953), 藏人 2775622 is quite accurate number though. did you mean it was the number 1,000,000 (from dalai administration in tibet) plus tibetans in other regions? if so, then could be the exaggeration of dalai's number. maybe much less than 1,000,000. say 700,000, 600,000 or even 500,000?

one thing you noticed is that the overall population had grown over 120 millions for the 10-year period (1954-1964). it was 1.17% of population growth rate overall, which seemed to be normal back then. but instead, tibetans has 1.12% of negative growth rate during that period? and by 1990, the number of population of tibetans suddenly jumped up to 4593330, that is 1.86% of growth rate for tibetans, come on, something is not right!

or maybe they just had sex revolution during that period? dude, it would take a lot of sex to get that rate of growth, especially the infant mortality was very high back then. maybe we should do some research on a topic called "sexual activities of tibetan during the period of  ...", just kidding....

so the reasons of 1), 2) or 3) are all possible, but i rather think it was due to grossly inaccurate (exaggerated) number from then dalai administration for the number of 2775622.

great discussion though ...

[ 本帖最後由 snortbsd 於 2008-4-18 13:25 編輯 ]

可不可以把這些東西整理一下成為文章，然後發被給我？請署名。謝謝。

vod'at'vod-views'dot'com

原帖由 胡雞亂想 於 2008-4-18 11:11 發表
可不可以把這些東西整理一下成為文章，然後發被給我？請署名。謝謝。

vod'at'vod-views'dot'com

well, the first part has been done. basically it raises serious questions in terms of data used by  the "tibet government in exile". it either lied about the data, or it grossly exaggerated the number of its followers

the original posters were 他行車 and oc16chan

next part would be the claim of the "genocide of tiebtans", which i am working on it, with 他行車.

原帖由 snortbsd 於 2008-4-18 08:03 發表
to 他行車 #8 and #9:

3) but  this 第一次普查(1953), 藏人 2775622 is quite accurate number though. did you mean it was the number 1,000,000 (from dalai administration in tibet) plus tibetans in other regions? if so, then could be the exaggeration of dalai's number. maybe much less than 1,000,000. say 700,000, 600,000 or even 500,000?

That's what I mean.

one thing you noticed is that the overall population had grown over 120 millions for the 10-year period (1954-1964). it was 1.17% of population growth rate overall, which seemed to be normal back then. but instead, tibetans has 1.12% of negative growth rate during that period? and by 1990, the number of population of tibetans suddenly jumped up to 4593330, that is 1.86% of growth rate for tibetans, come on, something is not right!

This is not impossible, because this is the main growth period. With combined effect of lower infantry mortality and longer life expectances, both due to improved health conditions.

The growth rate has dropped after 1990.

In the same period (1964-1990), the mongolian population has grown from 2.0M to 4.8M (up 140%), hui population from 4.5M to 8.6M (up 90%), Uigue from 4.0M to 7.2M (up 80%), han from 650M to 1040M (up 60%), while tibetans from 2.5M to 4.6M (up 85%). This is quite average.

Of course, it is also possible that the 1964 data contain some kind of errors. Unfortunately I have failed to find the ethnic details of the 1982 sensus data.

原帖由 胡雞亂想 於 2008-4-18 11:11 發表
可不可以把這些東西整理一下成為文章，然後發被給我？請署名。謝謝。

vod'at'vod-views'dot'com

如果誰能整理一下弄個"數據和事實"網站出來, 可能更有用.

原帖由 他行車 於 2008-4-18 13:48 發表


That's what I mean.



This is not impossible, because this is the main growth period. With combined effect of lower infantry mortality and longer life expectances, both due to improved h ...

ok, you got point, let me think it over...

The data of the first national census for the population was published in 1954. The overall population for china (including Tibet) was 601,938,035. Among them, Tibetans were 2,775,622. Back then, Dalai Lama administered Tibet local government reported to the Bureau of Census of the central government in Beijing with the number of 1 millions.  The rest of 2,755,622 lived outside of Tibet (later TAR).

The data of the second census was published in 1964. The overall population was 723,070,269. The Tibetan population was 2,501,174. This time it was done by the central government (Dalai administration had exiled to the in India in 1959)

There is discrepancy of over 250,000 between the data of the first census (2,755,622) and the data of the second census (2,501,174). From the data, they seemed to be quite accurate. Where did those 250,000 people go? Died (any reasons)? Or never existed before?

One thing noticed is that the overall population in China had grown over 122 millions for the 10-year period (1954-1964). It was 1.17% (roughly) of population growth rate overall, which seemed to be normal back then. But instead, Tibetans has 1.12% (roughly) of negative growth rate during that period? And more interestingly, by the 1990, the number of population of Tibetans suddenly jumped up to 4,593,330, that is 1.86% (roughly) of growth rate for Tibetans. What was happening? Tibetan version of sex revolution?

One possible explanation was that there were not 1 millions Tibetans in TAR region (though not officially existed in 1954) reported by the Dalai local administration, far less than 1 millions. So the number of 2,755,622 from the first censure was incredibly inaccurate due to the gross exaggeration of then Dalai local administration.

Now let』s take look at the myth of the 「genocide」 of 1.2 Tibetans. According to the Tibet government exiles, after the rebellions of 1959, 1.2 millions Tibetans were killed. So if it was true, even with the number 2,755,622 from 1954, 1.5 million survived. But, by the 1964, according to the second census, the Tibetan population was 2,501,174.

Wow, 5-years period, 1.5 millions Tibetans made 1 millions babies? Even with 0% of infant mortality, geees, sex machines? Like hens lay eggs?

Another argument was that there were 6 millions of Tibetans in 1949 (so claimed by the Tibetan government in exile). Then the discrepancy between the number of 2,775,622 (the data from the first census in 1954) and the data of 6 millions (so claimed by the Tibetan government in exiles) should be 3.25 millions. Remember, the so-called Dalai uprising was in 1959, not in 1954. Where did hell those 3.25 millions (actually should be more, with the base of 6 millions, gotta have a bit more growth between 1949 and 1954) Tibetans go? Can』t be killed by the communists, right? Otherwise, Dalai could not have sat with Mao in Beijing for the short lived 「honey moon」 between them.

With the data from the second census of 2,501,174 (1964), used the based number 6 millions (claimed by the Tibetan government in exile), assume 0% growth rate, then the discrepancy grew even larger. So Chinese government killed 3.5 millions of Tibetans? If so, why Dalai Lama claimed only 1.2 millions killed? Covered up for his enemy?

Dalai had his Nobel Peace prize with that magic number 1.2 millions. Maybe he save that rest of the numbers for two more "Nobel Peace Prize" in the future?

You be the judge!!!

[ 本帖最後由 snortbsd 於 2008-4-24 02:07 編輯 ]

to 他行車:

the claim of 6 millions tibetans back to later 40s and early 50s was just as absurd as the claim of 1.2 millions of tibetans killed by chinese government after 1959 failed rebellion.

各位，我把你們的文章整理並張貼在 www.vol-news.com

請看：
Dalai Lama Claims the Chinese Government Has Committed "Genocide of Tibetans". Is This a Lie?
http://vol-news.com/tibet%20history/population_tibet.php

我暫時把你們的網名作為作者。如果想署另外的名字，請用短消息，或電郵到：vol@vol-news.com

謝謝！！

請看一下別的關於西藏歷史部分，請指教！

原帖由 胡雞亂想 於 2008-4-24 10:39 發表
各位，我把你們的文章整理並張貼在 www.vol-news.com

請看：
Dalai Lama Claims the Chinese Government Has Committed "Genocide of Tibetans". Is This a Lie?
http://vol-news.com/tibet%20h ...

西西河上雪個的文章很可以參考。