美國人看美國：美國對於中國貨幣的觀點

（前言：羅傑是他爹。思想很中立。美國做錯了，他也要批評。曾經為國會議員擔任經濟顧問。寫過不少批判文章。針對近日的美國參議院通過對中國貨幣政策的懲罰議案，羅傑又有話說。本文是去年寫的。先給大家墊個底。新的文章【懲罰中國貨幣政策無助於美國）還在翻譯中，敬請關注）

美國對於中國貨幣的觀點

作者： 羅傑      翻譯： 丹奇

美國一般認為中國通過壓低其人民幣價值與其他貨幣價值對比（比較顯著的是美元）來操控其貨幣以保持其出口經濟，維持其基礎製造行業的就業率並刺激經濟的成長—加上其龐大的外匯儲備（以美元，歐元和日元儲備為主）

美國和歐洲盟友的基本想法首要的是政治因素---他們（美國和歐洲）已經在過去的十年裡失去了製造業基礎給中國，因為中國加入WTO(國際貿易組織),在美國獲得最惠國待遇（貿易）。認為中國提供了大量的低廉勞動力。而且，沒有環境法或執法不嚴也是對美國和歐洲企業很有吸引力的。

在美國對政治類型的關注（美國國會和總統）是政治本質之一。美國公民（選民們）對美國目前的經濟環境和高失業率很憂慮。值得注意的是，在過去十年的頭五年，對中國日益增長的經濟力量甚少或幾乎沒有任何關注。

一部分的問題是美國人沒有注意到他們才是問題的一部分。這是「雞和雞蛋」的問題。美國人說「現在什麼都是中國造的」,但是中國會說 「你們的公司來這裡追求廉價的勞動力好提高利潤」。值得注意的是美國人並不需要買中國造的商品。但是同樣值得注意的是，他們也不想付不必要的代價購買「美國貨」。 這就是一個老式的政治問題：每個人都同意我們必須「宰殺一些母牛」但是沒人願意宰殺自己的母牛。每個人都在期待其他人做出犧牲。

恕我直言，中國在「操縱」匯率是完全沒有異議的的。然而，同樣的說法，也完全可以套在美國和其他的經濟實體上（日本，德國，英國等）。其他國家只不過用其他方式進行操縱---他們用赤字開支，基本上就是提高他們自己的貨幣供應（印鈔票），就像任何過度供應的商品一樣（貨幣就是商品之一，恰如其分）。製造了市場的「失衡」，從而降低價格，在這裡就是貨幣價值。

國家這麼做的理由很明顯，驅動出口。中國也是如此。其他國家與中國的矛盾是因為，中國，目前，好像贏了這場遊戲。

現在，其他國家的問題是，如果中國決定讓其貨幣升值（也許高達40%），中國的購買力一個晚上就會呈指數級提升。讓我們想想世界上以美元為幣值的基礎產品—石油。如果中國的貨幣升值40%，那他們在世界市場上購買石油就可以少支付30%費用！這個經濟動態本身就可以對其他經濟體製造大量的問題――最引人注目的就是中國獲得大量儲備的能力，基本上保持了珍貴和有限能源供應和生產的巨大動力 - 這是所有的工業經濟體（主要是美國）所依賴的。

如果中國控制，或擁有大量的股份，或購買大量儲備和生產力的能力，他們就能阻礙或者甚至削弱西方經濟，通過拒絕其他經濟體對目前商品供應的獲取或提高價格來削弱那些經濟體（通貨膨脹，減少生產），其結果是對中國出口更加依賴。

不幸的是，對西方而言，政客們習慣於「迎合」選民，從眾心理――也就是說，受民意支配，而不是對這樣的行動可能導致這種後果的反響進行合理的討論

現在對中國圍攻聽起來挺好，特別是自從過去10年我們的經濟（西方整體上）正在遭受經濟危機，萎靡不振。也許這就是我們文化的一部分――這不是我們的「過錯」，我們需要有別的人可以進行指責。

美國民眾對世界或本國經濟缺乏理解，也許在中國也是如此。然而，美國政客們依賴於特殊利益集團，大眾民意或投票人群――因此，如果缺乏透明的信息，那麼這個錯誤的信息就會一直持續到選舉日。

在美國，目前的民意就是中國令我們失去成千上萬的工作。我會說，這是真的。但是，中國也維持了我們的低利息（通過為我們龐大的政府開支進行融資），並供應便宜的商品（保持低通貨膨脹）。在這裡，你聽不到這方面的爭論――這不是人們願意聽到的。這也不是政客或媒體在他們的信息里導向的。

對美國人來說，很容易說是中國的錯。在某種程度上是這樣，是美國的管理層和政客煽動了這個問題。

總的來說，在美國，我們只是需要有人被責備。這就是美國特色。

(原文如下)

U.S. Views on China currency:

By Tadie, Economist

The USA generally holds the view that China manipulates its currency by holding down its value versus other currencies ( notably the dollar ) to maintain its export driven economy, keep employment high in the base manufacturing sector and fuel economic growth – also adding to its massive holdings of foreign currency reserves ( held in dollars, euros and yen ).

The base thought in the USA and its Euro allies is first and foremost a political one – that they ( the USA and Europe ) have been losing their manufacturing base to China over the past decade since China』s entry into the World Trade Organization ( WTO ) and gaining MOST FAVORED NATION STATUS ( for trade ) in the  USA.  The thought is that China offers a massive labor pool at inexpensive  rates.  Also, lax enforcement or non existence of environmental laws also is attractive to firms in the USA and Europe.

The concern on political types in the USA ( the U.S. Congress and President ) is one of a political nature. The citizenry ( voters ) are upset regarding the current economic situation and high unemployment in the USA. It is worth noting that in the first half of the decade ( 2000 to 2005 ) there was little concern and even less talk of China』s growing economic power.

Part of the problem is that Americans fail to note that they themselves are part of the problem. It』s a 「chicken and egg」 issue. Americans say 「everything is now made in China」 but China will say 「your companies came here for cheap labor to increase profits」. It』s well worth noting that Americans do not have to buy Chinese made goods. It』s also worth noting that they don』t want to pay the necessary price to 「buy American」. It』s the old political problem where everyone agrees we have to 「kill some cows」 but  nobody wants to kill their own cow. Everyone expects someone else to sacrifice.

Now, to say China 「manipulates」 its currency is my view absolutely true. However, the same can be said of the USA and every other large economy ( Japan, Germany, the UK, etc ). The other countries just do it in another manner – they use deficit spending, essentially increasing the supply of their own currency ( printing money ) which like an over supply of any commodity ( and money is a commodity, a fiat one, but a commodity none the less ) creates an imbalance in the 「market」 and hence drives down the price, or in this case the value of the currency.

Countries do this for an obvious reason, to drive exports. China does the same thing. The problem countries have with China is that China seems to be winning this game, for the time being.

Now, the problem for the other countries if China decides to allow its currency to rise in value ( perhaps by as much as 40% ) is that China』s purchasing power increases exponentially overnight. Let』s think of one of those base products in the world that is priced in Dollars – Oil. If China』s currency rose in value by 40% versus the Dollar overight then the price it pays for oil on the world market would be 30% less ! That economic dynamic alone could create massive problems for other economies – most notably the ability of China to acquire massive reserves and essentially hold huge power over the precious and finite supply and production of energy – which all the industrial economies ( most notably the USA ) depend upon.

If China did control or have a large share or the ability to purchase large reserves or production they could essentially hinder or even cripple western economies by either denying access to current supplies or driving the price so high that it creates crippling economic effects in those economies ( inflation, reduced production ) and hence even more dependence on China exports.

Unfortunately, for the west, politicians are prone to 「play」 to the voters and follow 「mob」 thought – that is to say and do what popular opinion dictates, rather than having a reasonable discussion of the repercussions of what such actions could cause in consequence.

It sounds good to 「bash」 China now, especially since our economy ( and the west as a whole ) is suffering the malaise of the financial meltdown of the past decade. Perhaps it』s part of our culture – it』s not our 「fault」 and we need someone to blame.

There』s a real lack of knowledge on the American populace side as to world or domestic economics, perhaps in China, too. However, politicians in America are beholden to special interest groups, popular opinion and voting groups – so if less than a transparent message works then that』s what you run with all the way to the election.

In America, the popular opinion now is that China cost us jobs, millions of them.  I would say that is true. But, China has also kept interest rates low here ( by financing our massive government spending ) as well as supplying with inexpensive goods ( keeping inflation low ). You won』t hear that side of the argument here – it』s not what people want to hear. It』s not what the politicians or media 「spin」 in their message.

To Americans its easy to say its China』s fault. In part it is, but American management and politicians instigated the problem.

In general, in America, we just need somebody to blame. It』s the American thing to do.