華夏之聲

https://big5.backchina.com/?234211

美國的外匯儲備有多少？

作者：華夏之聲於 2007-7-9 10:50 發表於最熱鬧的華人社交網路--貝殼村

作者分類:經濟|通用分類:其它日誌

乍看之下，這個題目有點怪。可是我們每天聽到中國的外匯儲備有多少，日本的有多少，那麼我們是否應該知道美國有多少？有誰能告訴我？我知道，沒人能告訴我。

當然有常識的人會說，中國的外匯儲備有多少億美元，美元是國際貨幣，美國當然也儲備美元，但在美國這就不是外匯了。那麼，直接了當又合乎邏輯的問題是：美國儲備了多少億美元？答案：只有美國聯邦儲備局知道。

事實上，本來美國有不同的貨幣測度值來確定貨幣供應量，叫做M0，M1，M2，M3。可是從2006年起聯儲局撤銷了M3，也就是不再公布M3。M3當中有什麼呢？除了包含了M2之外，還包括了存款超過10萬美元的儲蓄帳戶，歐元帳戶和再購買協議。聯儲局撤銷了M3的借口是M3並不比M2有更多附加信息，M3對貨幣政策也沒有什麼價值。但是華爾街的解讀是聯儲局印的錢太多，美國欠外國的錢太多，所以聯儲局不願意讓人知道了。

從以前的資料來看，美國的貨幣供應總量M3(也許叫需求總量更合適)，從1995年的4萬億美元快速增長到2005年底的11萬億美元，而且在2005年底的增長速度(約每年1萬億美元)是歷史上最快的，正是在這樣的背景下聯儲局撤銷了M3。

所以美國實際上變成了發行美元，操縱美元的大莊家。像中國，日本，歐洲這些實體無視這樣一個無法知道這個莊家的底細的現實，還不厭其煩地公布自己的底牌。當一個國家的外匯儲備比較少而又在增長的時候，你公布它可以保證你的貨幣穩定，嚇退索羅斯這樣的炒家。但是中國在外匯儲備超過4000億美元之後，誰還敢來騷擾人民幣？況且人民幣本來就不可以自由兌換。現在不斷地公布，不斷地增長，反倒讓人家說中國在操縱貨幣，並且增加了針對中國的貿易保護主義措施，防止中國購買它們的資產。

中國的財經官員，應該停止坐在美元堆上得意洋洋，應該好好想想怎樣保護那得來不易的外匯的固有價值了。

(說明：本人非經濟學家，解釋某些經濟學用語時未免淺薄，但分析問題的方向方法應該沒有問題，請見諒)

附錄一：聯儲局關於停止公布M3的公告：

On March 23, 2006, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System will cease publication of the M3 monetary aggregate. The Board will also cease publishing the following components: large-denomination time deposits, repurchase agreements (RPs), and Eurodollars. The Board will continue to publish institutional money market mutual funds as a memorandum item in this release.

Measures of large-denomination time deposits will continue to be published by the Board in the Flow of Funds Accounts (Z.1 release) on a quarterly basis and in the H.8 release on a weekly basis (for commercial banks).

M3 does not appear to convey any additional information about economic activity that is not already embodied in M2 and has not played a role in the monetary policy process for many years. Consequently, the Board judged that the costs of collecting the underlying data and publishing M3 outweigh the benefits.

附錄二：M0，M1，M2，M3的定義：

Components of US money supply (M1, M2, and M3) since 1959

The most common measures are named M0 (narrowest), M1, M2, and M3. In the United States they are defined by the Federal Reserve as follows:

M0: The total of all physical currency, plus accounts at the central bank that can be exchanged for physical currency.

M1: M0 - those portions of M0 held as reserves or vault cash + the amount in demand accounts ("checking" or "current" accounts).

M2: M1 + most savings accounts, money market accounts, small denomination time deposits and certificate of deposit accounts (CDs) of under $100,000.

M3: M2 + all other CDs, deposits of eurodollars and repurchase agreements.

As of March 23, 2006, information regarding M3 will no longer be published by the Federal Reserve, ostensibly because it costs a lot to collect the data but doesn't provide significantly useful data The other three money supply measures will continue to be provided in detail.