倍可親

bull-shit

作者:weileguojia  於 2007-12-23 12:09 發表於 最熱鬧的華人社交網路--貝殼村

通用分類:其它日誌

中國政府出色地利用了美國次貸危機引發的貪婪

倍可親(backchina.com)  中國政府出色地利用美國次貸危機引發的貪婪,強烈地反擊了日益增長的、認為貿易主義會抵制主權基金的預期。畢竟,美國國會的孤立主義者很難提出反對,因為中國投資有限責任公司已經變成華爾街重要公司的救星。

  華爾街還將為中國和中東公司組成一個強大的同盟,這就像白天之後是黑夜一樣自然。但不是很久以前,當中國石油巨頭中國海洋石油總公司(CNOOC)魯莽地意圖收購一家中檔的美國石油公司,保護主義的嚎叫就開始增長。

  中國斥資50億美元,目前擁有摩根士丹利9.9%的股份。此前該公司透露99億美元資產減記,導致第四季度損失36億美元。

  中國還擁有大量貝爾斯登(Bear Stearns)股份,而且在之前更為安靜的日子裡,以30億美元買下黑石集團10%的股份。

  新加坡政府已經獲得瑞士瑞銀集團價值100億美元的股份,而且阿布扎比以75億美元的投資搭救花旗集團。

  如果說勢力從西方轉向東方,那麼這些交易更明顯地體現了這一點。這些交易來得恰逢其時,華爾街寬鬆的風險控制和純粹的貪慾有自我引爆的傾向。

  在摩根士丹利的例子中,它拿140億美元投注債權抵押證券(CDO)市場,如果一切順利,可以收穫20億美元的利潤,但結果卻造成70億美元的損失。

  這是某種災難。

  中國投資有限責任公司剛剛撥出670億美元投資境外股票。澳大利亞財政部長坦納(Lindsay Tanner)在過去幾年是自由市場的倡導者,曾經敦促取消對外國投資的管制,但如今他有了第二種想法,因為中國與必和必拓(BHP Billiton)的收購事件會有政治影響。

  今年,中國已經在境外投資292億美元,而外國人的投資「僅為」215億美元,這是投資流第一次出現逆轉。這種趨勢或是不祥的,或是積極的,這是見仁見智的事,但明顯的是,這種趨勢是真實的,而且愈發壯大。(作者 John Durie)

THE Chinese Government has brilliantly exploited the greed inspired US sub-prime crisis to build a strong case against the predicted increase in protectionism against sovereign wealth funds.

After all, surely it will be hard for the isolationists in the US Congress to mount a case against the Chinese Investment Corporation after it has come to the rescue of key Wall Street firms.

Wall Street will also form a powerful ally for China and Middle East firms when, as sure as night follows day, the protectionist howls begin to grow as they did not so long ago when CNOOC, the Chinese oil major, had the temerity to bid for a mid rank US oil company.

China now has a 9.9 per cent stake in Morgan Stanley after last night』s $US5 billion ($5.8 billion) equity injection after the firm unveiled a $US9.9 billion write-down to push its fourth quarter loss to $US3.6 billion.

It also owns a chunk of Bear Stearns and in more tranquil days a $US3 billion investment bought it 10 per cent of buyout firm Blackstone.

The Singapore Government has acquired a $US10 billion stake in Swiss based UBS and Abu Dhabi came to Citigroup』s rescue with a $US 7.5 billion investment.

If ever the transfer of power from West to East was more apparent it is through deals like these, which appropriately enough came via Wall Street』s penchant for blowing itself up through lax risk controls and outright greed.

In Morgan』s case it was a $US14 billion bet on the CDO market which, if all went well, would have netted the firm a $US2 billion profit, but instead ended with a $US 7 billion loss.

That is some sort of disaster.

With superb timing just yesterday, the local Morgan Stanley PR team circulated a recent research report from London-based Stephen Jen detailing the rise of sovereign wealth funds and their advantages.

His boss John Mack no doubt agrees wholeheartedly because he looks set to retain his job, while his comrades at Bear Stearns, Citigroup, UBS and Merrill Lynch have lost theirs.

Sovereign wealth funds are now estimated to have $US2.5 trillion in funds compared to official reserves at $US5.6 trillion and $US1.6 trillion invested in hedge funds.

Morgan』s Jen figures the big emerging countries have $US1.5 trillion in excess reserves so the story will only get bigger.

The China Investment Corp has just allocated $US67 billion to invest in offshore equities.

Australian Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner, a free market advocate who in years past has urged the scrapping of foreign investment controls, now says he is having second thoughts because of the political impact of, say, China bidding for BHP Billiton.

This year China has invested $US29.2 billion outside the country compared to 「just 「 $21.5 billion invested by foreigners, marking the first time the flows have reversed.

The trend is an ominous one or a positive one depending on which side of the ledger you stand, but clearly the trend is real and getting bigger.


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