美國檢方引渡孟晚舟的後續動作

2018年12月1日華為CFO孟晚舟過境加拿大在溫哥華機場轉機時被加檢方應美檢方的引渡要求拘押至今快10天了，12月5日加拿大新聞媒體首次披露才讓外界知悉。

CFO孟晚舟另外一個身份是華為掌門人任正非的女兒，又是華為的未來既定接班人，孟晚舟被捕成為世界新聞的頭條。大陸政府的抗議也在逐漸升級。按照加拿大的司法程序，先是上周五舉行了保釋聽證會，儘管孟晚舟的辯護律師羅列出了詳盡的支撐孟晚舟保釋以後不會逃回大陸的條件，但是聽證會還是沒有結果，延遲到下周一再舉行第二次保釋聽證會。

從周五保釋聽證會公開的美檢方對孟晚舟涉嫌利用子公司Skycom做掩蓋與受美國制裁國家進行非法交易的指控來看，美檢方是做足了功課的，可以說是鐵證如山，每一項指控都有可能被判30年以上的徒刑的，孟晚舟將來被引渡到美國受審是不容置疑的，加拿大拘捕孟晚舟就是應美方引渡要求而實施的執法行為。孟晚舟對於美方的指控很難拿出來為自己脫罪的有信服力的證據，其律師僅僅在保釋上做文章，打苦情牌，孟晚舟的律師遂提出了12項條件包括：呆在家裡，宵禁，交出護照，風險管理，GPS，電子監視，同意皇家騎警隨時搜查等多項嚴格的限制人身自由的措施。所有這些保釋條件對於孟晚舟這樣身份的人來講，特別是美方指控的欺詐罪名來講，孟晚舟保釋后遵守這些條件的可信度大打折扣。孟晚舟在加拿大的牽連一項來看，孟晚舟每年僅僅夏天來溫哥華呆數周而已。至於其在溫哥華的兩套房屋來說，對於作為華為CFO來說是九牛一毫，即便本人逃離加拿大，其丈夫和孩子仍然可以一切如常的在溫哥華生活。至於說孟晚舟的辯護律師所言的若是孟晚舟逃回大陸就會成為賤民一說，純屬信口開河，最差就是任正非不讓其接管華為而已。再說，孟晚舟一旦保釋后的個人安全保障可能也有疑問，自殺和被殺滅口的可能性不是沒有？這從其周五聽證會的安保級別就可以看出一些端倪。由此來推測下周一的聽證會孟晚舟獲得保釋的可能性不是太大。

美國檢方今年8月份就簽發了孟晚舟的逮捕令，加拿大檢方直到12月1日才實施拘捕，說明加美檢方事先是充分協商和溝通好了的，也就是說引渡到美國受審是有充分把握的。再說，加拿大逮捕孟晚舟就是應美方引渡要求而採取的執法行為，因此，孟晚舟保釋聽證后被引渡到美國受審只是在走法律程序而已。

最近大陸政府針對孟晚舟被捕抗議升級，外交部副部長召見加拿大駐北京大使時的措辭蠻橫強硬並且帶有威脅成分言論，十分不利於孟晚舟的保釋，反而加劇了法官對於孟晚舟保釋以後的逃亡和其自身安全的疑慮，只會加速孟晚舟被美檢方引渡的進程。加拿大和美國是同盟國，威脅加拿大就等同於威脅美國，更何況加拿大拘捕孟晚舟還是應美方要求所作的司法協作。

美方一旦引渡孟晚舟到美國審判以後，極有可能會從孟晚舟那裡得到有關華為違反美國禁運的更多確鑿證據，因為從孟晚舟在周五為了保釋而不惜合盤托出自己在溫哥華擁有的房產來看，一旦被引渡到美國受審，還不把她掌握的華為的核心機密一股腦給抖落了出去，為後續像處理中興和晉華一樣，通過禁令讓華為停擺！

總而言之，美檢方要求加拿大檢方逮捕華為CFO孟晚舟只是通過禁令讓華為停擺的序曲和鋪墊。

延伸閱讀：

1) 美國檢方指控華為CFO孟晚舟全文(中英對照) https://big5.backchina.com/news/2018/12/09/598196.html

2) 中國外交部急召美加兩國大使 要求撤孟晚舟逮捕令 https://big5.backchina.com/news/2018/12/09/598282.html

中國官方的新華社說，中國外交部副部長樂玉成在召見布蘭斯塔德大使時指責美國嚴重侵犯了中國公民的合法權益，「性質極其惡劣」。他還說，中國強烈敦促美方「務必」高度重視中國的立場，要求美國「立即採取措施糾正錯誤做法，撤銷對中國公民的逮捕令」。

中國外交部副部長樂玉成星期六（12月8日）緊急召見了加拿大駐華大使麥家廉，要求加拿大立即釋放華為CFO財務長孟晚舟，「否則必將造成嚴重後果」。樂玉成指責加政府扣留孟晚舟是「於法不顧，於理不合，於情不容，性質極其惡劣」。他還說「中方強烈敦促加方立即釋放被拘押人員，否則必將造成嚴重後果，加方要為此承擔全部責任」。

3) Huawei arrest: This is what the start of a tech Cold War looks like    By Julia Horowitz, CNN Business http://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/huawei-arrest-this-is-what-the-start-of-a-tech-cold-war-looks-like/ar-BBQGPr8?li=AAggNb9&ocid=UE12DHP

But for Huawei to succeed at building out 5G networks, it needs the United States.

Out of the Huawei's 92 main suppliers, 33 are US companies, including chipmakers Intel, Qualcomm, and Micron, and software firms Microsoft and Oracle, Tom Holland of Gavekal Research said in a note Friday.

"If Washington now prohibits these companies from selling to Huawei, the Chinese telecoms giant will struggle to survive," Holland said.

The Meng case, then, has major ramifications. The US government claims that Meng covered up violations of sanctions on Iran, according to Canadian prosecutors, who spoke at Meng's bail hearing in Vancouver on Friday.

Whether Huawei itself faces legal trouble remains to be seen, though there's speculation that the company could receive an export ban due to sanctions violations like the one imposed on ZTE.

Such a ban, if enacted, would be catastrophic for the company — and would derail Beijing's plans to deploy 5G on a large commercial scale by 2020.

"The arrest of Huawei's CFO in Canada will significantly raise the uncertainty of China's 5G timing, since any US export ban imposed on Huawei could either delay China's 5G rollout, or significantly reduce the scale near term," Jefferies analyst Edison Lee said in a note Friday. Such a ban would force Huawei's business to "come to a halt," he added.

In this, the United States has the upper hand. "They're dependent, so that puts them in a weak position," Lewis said.

Huawei has already run into problems in the deployment of its 5G technology amid concerns that its devices pose national security risks. New Zealand and Australia have barred Huawei equipment from its 5G mobile networks. UK telecoms group BT said earlier this week that it wouldn't buy Huawei equipment for the core of its 5G wireless network.

But formally penalizing Huawei could have serious consequences for how the US-China tech fight plays out down the line.

"They'll accelerate their efforts to become independent, and they'll look for ways they can ding us," Lewis said, noting that China could reduce orders of Boeing airplanes, or target US companies for violations of Chinese law. "Their hope is that in 10 years, they won't need us anymore."

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