里約奧運英國金牌為什麼超越中國(雙語)

Team GB has been second in the Olympic medal table for nearly a week， pushing China into third place - the same China that topped the medal table at the Beijing Olympics in 2008， and was second in 2004 and 2012。 So is GB doing well - or is China doing badly？

　　一周來，英國隊在里約奧運的金牌榜上都佔據第二，中國隊名列第三——而2008年，北京在奧運獎牌榜排名第一，2004年和2012年都排名第二。那麼，是英國隊本次表現太出色，還是中國隊自身表現不佳呢？

　　Much has been made of Team GB』s success so far in Rio。 But it』s possible that China has done even more to propel the British up the table。

　　迄今為止，英國隊在里約奧運上的表現都非常出色，但也有可能是中國將英國推到了第二名的高位。

　　Prior to the Games， some had predicted that China could win up to 36 gold medals。 Instead， at noon on Friday， with just three days to go， they were sitting on just 20 - two behind Team GB - despite having sent 416 athletes to Rio， compared with Team GB』s 366。

　　賽前預測普遍認為中國隊最多能獲得36枚金牌。然而，直到8月19日中午12點——距離本屆奧運結束還有3天時間時，中國隊僅獲得了20枚金牌——落後英國2枚。儘管中國隊派出了416名運動健兒出戰里約，而英國代表隊只有366人。

　　So what has gone wrong？

　　那到底是發生了什麼事呢，才會出現這樣的結果？

　　At the 2012 London games， China won 11 golds across swimming， gymnastics and fencing。 This year they』ve managed only one。

　　四年前倫敦奧運時，中國隊在游泳、體操、擊劍項目中斬獲了11枚金牌，然而本次里約奧運會這個數字僅為1。

　　Swimming has been a source of particular disappointment， given that just one year ago China won five gold medals at the world championships。

　　游泳隊的表現尤其讓人大跌眼鏡，儘管一年前的世錦賽，中國還贏得了5枚金牌。

　　In gymnastics， China has been left without a gold for the first time since the nation began competing at the Olympics in 1984。 In London four years ago they won five gymnastic golds， and in Beijing they won nine。

　　而體操項目，中國隊沒有收穫金牌，這是中國自從1984年恢復參加奧運會以來第一次。4年前倫敦奧運會上中國體操隊收穫5枚金牌，2008年北京奧運會這個數字是9。
It goes on。 China』s badminton women』s doubles pair exited without a gold for the first time since the event was introduced in 1992。 And China could only muster bronze in mixed doubles， despite having taken three of the five golds available between 1992 and 2012。

　　情況似乎還更糟——作為中國羽毛球隊的王牌項目，自1992年奧運起便連續5屆包攬冠軍的女雙，在里約奧運上卻首次創下了無緣獎牌的尷尬記錄。羽毛球的女單、女雙、混雙，中國只在混雙取得一枚銅牌。混而此前1992到2012年5屆奧運中，中國曾經取得這一項目女單、女雙、混雙的3塊金牌。
2000年東道國澳大利亞和2008年東道國中國金牌數變化圖（藍線代表中國，紅線代表澳大利亞）。

　　That said， it』s not unusual for teams to do much better than normal when they are the host nation and then tail off at subsequent games。

　　有種說法是，奧運會東道國會在自己主辦那屆奧運會上有超常表現，但隨後開始下跌。

　　「We often see the performance afterwards declines a bit，」 says Carsten Crede of the University of East Anglia。 「You have an increased incentive as a country to invest in your athletes prior to hosting the games， so after that the incentive is gone。」

　　「我們通常會看到這種東道國在後來的奧運會上表現下滑的情況，」東安格利亞大學的克雷德說，「主辦奧運會能刺激東道國在那屆奧運會之前對運動項目增加投資，但這種激情後來會消退。」

　　In China』s case， the surge in gold medals at the 2008 Beijing Olympics， and the drop-off at the following games appears to be much sharper than Australia』s rise and fall before and after the Sydney games in 2000。

　　以中國為例，2008年北京奧運上中國金牌數量達到最高峰，隨後出現下跌，其漲跌程度都超過了2000年主辦奧運會的澳大利亞。

　　Crede and his colleagues had predicted a total of 86 medals （including silvers and bronzes） for China。 So far it has won just 58。

　　克雷德和他的同事預測中國會在里約拿到86塊獎牌（包括銀牌和銅牌），但截至目前只有58枚。

　　By contrast， Team GB is only nine medals off its total of 65 from London 2012。

　　相比之下，英國目前已奪得61枚，只比倫敦奧運會奪得的65枚獎牌總數少4枚。

　　There』s been considerable disquiet in the Chinese media about the national team』s performance in Rio。 「You』re kidding me？」 wrote state news agency Xinhua of Team GB in a subsequently deleted tweet。 「The country which has never finished above China， is about to。」

　　中國隊的表現引發了中國媒體的驚訝。「這不是開玩笑吧！一個從來沒有在獎牌榜上超過中國的國家，現在就要做到了。」官方媒體《新華社》在一條現在已被刪除的推特上感嘆。

　　Of the Chinese gymnasts， who took home just two bronzes， the official People』s Daily said： 「People cannot but ponder - what on earth is up with them？」

　　對於僅獲得1銀、4枚銅牌的體操，官媒《人民日報》說，「人們只能沉思，他們到底怎麼了？」

　　But China』s decline may be a portent of Team GB』s future。 「I think we will see a fading out over time， just as we might see with China at the moment，」 Crede says。 He says it』s too early to assess whether China truly has underperformed at Rio relative to how you would expect a team to fare two games after being hosts。

　　不過，中國隊的今天很可能就是英國隊的明天。克雷德說，「隨著時間推移，我們會看到英國奧運熱退潮，就像中國現在這樣。」不過他說，現在評估中國在里約表現不佳是否真的和所預測的那樣，是因為在東道國后連續兩屆成績下滑，還為時過早。

　　What about the Tokyo games in four years』 time？ Given China』s strong rivalry with Japan， it』s possible Beijing will pull out all the stops to perform well。 Will Team GB already be on the familiar downward curve？

　　四年後的東京會怎麼樣呢？考慮到中日關係的因素，北京方面可能會想方設法爭取好的表現。但英國真的會是奧運熱退潮，成績下滑嗎？

中國需要好好總結。