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China's dragon still roarsTales of its demise may suit those who think the one-party state does not deserve success, but they write off a complex beast
Jonathan Fenby
guardian.co.uk, Friday 16 January 2009 21.00 GMT
Article history
Perhaps it is the country's size, ancient civilisation and tumultuous modern history, or perhaps the result of its spectacular economic growth since Deng Xiaoping unleashed market-led economic reform 30 years ago. Whatever the reason, commentary on China seems all too easily trapped in hyperbole.
Either the last major state on earth ruled by a Communist party is seen as a nascent giant dragon about to take over the planet or it is a weak pretender that lacks the political, economical and social resilience to live up to its pretensions. In the first case, this will be China's century. In the second, the People's Republic is an emperor without clothes whose nakedness has been shown up by slumping economic performance and a rising tide of internal protest, fulfilling all the criticisms of its one-party political system and the attendant faultlines.
On the one hand is the image of a vast country with 1.3bn people moving inexorably to dominate the world now that it has freed itself from the shackles of the late imperial-Republican-Maoist century. For those who would welcome the end of the post-1945 global balance and the humbling of America, this is a most seductive prospect.
On the other hand is the picture of a vast country with 1.3bn people going out of control, rent by internal strife and social disorder in a re-run of the enormous grassroots revolts of the mid-19th century or the civil war between the Nationalists and Communists. For those who like a good story and those who think that a repressive one-party state is not morally entitled to China's recent record of material success, this is an irresistible narrative to project on to the back of the current economic downturn.
This week, the bulls were represented by the announcement that the growth of China's GDP in 2007 was being officially increased from 11.9% to 13%, taking the mainland ahead of Germany to become the world's third biggest national economy after the US and Japan. Even in the midst of predictions of doom for the first half of this year, prime minister Wen Jiabao was quoted on Monday as saying that the fiscal and monetary stimulus programme set in motion in November was already having an effect, and looking forward to China being the first big country to emerge from the crisis. On the other hand, some leading analysts have cut their predictions of growth this year to 5% as economic date shows continuing decline. The prominent exiled dissident, Wei Jingsheng warned in the Times of a tidal wave of discontent and the Guardian's Simon Tisdall, commenting on the current crackdown on political reform, saw the leadership in Beijing facing "a painful reckoning with China's over-pressured and under-represented masses".
In this year stuffed with sensitive anniversaries, there is no doubting the scale of the challenge facing China after its go-go growth since 2002. The tensions have been building up for a long time. The process of rebalancing the economy to lessen its dependence on low-cost exports and boost consumption was always going to be difficult. The lack of a real welfare system and the growing wealth disparities are bound to fuel discontent. The one-party system and the lack of the rule of law mean safety valves are missing. Now the impact of the global crisis on the economy and the effect on tens of millions of migrant workers thrown out of jobs make it easy to foresee doom and gloom for the mainland. (Taiwan is even worse hit in its vital export sector.)
But, as the Beijing ducks come home to roost with every prospect of a couple of bad quarters ahead and an autumn upturn still over the horizon, China ought to be seen in perspective. Let me advance 10 contrarian points; there are more, but such lists should not go on for too long.
1) Yes, growth dropped in the later months of 2008. But the PRC's economy is still expanding.
2) Yes, exports are falling. But imports are dropping even faster in price and volume, so there have been record trade surpluses this autumn and winter to produce an all-time high of $295bn for the year
3) Yes, China is suffering from the world crisis and there have been outflows of funds. But the PRC's foreign exchange reserves still jumped by $61bn in December to $1.95tn.
4) Yes, people are worried, and savings have risen. But the last retail sales figures showed a 20% rise year-on-year.
5) Yes, the profits at the 140 biggest state-owned enterprises fell by 26% between 2007 and 2008. But their combined revenue grew by 20% in the first 11 months of last year.
6) Yes, unemployment is at least double the official 4.5% rate. But wages have been rising fast.
7) Yes, a lot of factories making things like shoes and T-shirts and plastic goods have closed down in the
manufacturing hubs of Guangdong and Zhejiang. But many of these plants were rooted in the 1980s and needed to go out of business as China moved up the industrial ladder and implemented new labour legislation that shook their sweatshop model.
8) Yes, the increase in the demand for energy, usually a good indicator of economic activity, has slowed down dramatically. But more stringent times may push enterprises into eliminating their wasteful use of inputs as part of a broader move towards the greater efficiencies the country needs, particularly if electricity price controls are lifted.
9) Yes, China is pump-priming with its programme of subsidies and new infrastructure spending (say 1tn yuan (£100bn)). But which government is not doing the same? The latest figures show that banks are actually shelling out the money to companies as annual loan growth rose to 18.8% in December, and the broad M2 money supply rose by 17.8%, which is a huge increase given the big fall in inflation in the second half of 2008.
10) Yes, there is discontent among workers who have been laid off and may not return to urban jobs after the lunar New Year holiday and yes, there is already rural over-employment and many returning migrants lack farming skills. But it is interesting to note that reports of grassroots protests repeatedly cite just a couple of outbreaks of violence in Guangdong in which the authorities moved swiftly to placate the demonstrators.
This is not to underestimate the difficulties now hitting the People's Republic, nor the prospect that, even if the present policies do bear out the prime minister's optimism, there will be another downturn around the end of the year lasting into 2010. The current indicators are, for the most part, pointing downwards. The economy and society are much more complex than at the time of the last big decline, at the end of the 1990s, and the central government's ability to turn the ship round is that much more debatable.
China's progress since 1978 has been a volatile process in which, despite its insistence on one-party rule, the leadership has had to cede much of the control imposed by Mao Zedong. But for the party leader, Hu Jintao, and his colleagues, the stakes are even higher than for leaders in other countries. The Communist party and the regime it runs draw most of their legitimacy from economic growth and social stability. That means they have to throw everything they have got at the current economic problem. A catastrophic slump would not only endanger their positions but would also bring into question the form of regime that has ruled since 1978.
China's prospects need to be seen in that wider context. The country may have more going for it than the present doomsayers suggest, but it is facing a survival test of a kind not known in the west. The stakes are so high – and the importance of China to the world so great – that they should not be subject to simplification through a Manichaean lens.
衛報1月16日文章
或許因為這個國家龐大的規模，古老的文明以及動蕩的近代歷史，抑或是因為自三十年前鄧小平啟動市場導向的經濟改革以來，這個國家驚人經濟增長的成就。但無論處於何種原因，那些針對中國的所有評論似乎都簡單的流於浮誇。
作為這個星球上最後一個由共產黨統治的主要國家，它被視為一條將要接管這個星球的新生巨龍，或者是一個虛弱的、缺乏踐行其承諾的政治、經濟和社會彈性的浮誇者。就前者而論，這將意味著一個屬於中國的世紀。對後者來說，人民共和國只是一個沒有穿衣服的皇帝（皇帝的新裝），在低迷的經濟表現和上升的國內抗議大潮面前左支右絀，正好迎合了對其一黨政治體制和隨之而來的種種缺陷的批評之聲。
一方面，這個擁有十三億人口和廣袤國土的大國現在已經擺脫了毛派共和帝國紀元最後的種種桎梏，給人留下將不可阻擋的走向主導世界地位的印象。對於那些歡迎1945年之後全球的平衡將被打破，並且不必再看美國臉色行事的人來說，這是一個極為誘惑的前景。
另一方面，我們又看到這樣一幅圖景，這個擁有十三億人口的大國正在走向失控，被來自國內的衝突和社會騷亂撕裂，進入類似十九世紀中期的基層起義，或是國共內戰那樣的狂亂循環。對於那些喜歡有著引人入勝情節的故事的人，以及那些認為一個壓制性的一黨制國家在道德上沒有資格認領中國近來物質成功記錄的人來說，這正是引起當前經濟衰退背後一個不可抗拒的註腳。
本周，這頭公牛已經通過將2007年度中國官方GDP增長數字從11.7%上調至13%這一聲明對此表達了異議，大陸從此取代德國，成為緊隨美國和日本之後的世界第三大經濟體。甚至在對今年上半年毀滅性預言喧囂塵上之時，溫家寶總理周一還引用了這一數字，表示始於去年十一月份的一系列財政和貨幣刺激計劃正在產生效果，並盼望中國成為第一個走出危機的大國。另一方面，一些為首的分析人士卻因為經濟數據的持續下降，而把對今年經濟增長的預期下調至5%以下。著名流亡異見者魏京生在《泰晤士報》發出將有一波異見海嘯的預警，而衛報的Simon Tisdall也對時下該國對於政治改革的壓製作出評論，認為北京領導層正在面對「中國承受高壓並代表性不足的群眾所帶來的一個痛苦前景」。
今年的日曆已被各種敏感的周年紀念所排滿，自2002年以來盡情的增長之後，中國這次所面對挑戰的規模是不容置疑的。內在張力已經被積蓄了很久。要想重整經濟，勢必要減少其對低成本出口的依賴，並推動消費，但這一過程總是困難重重。缺乏一個真正的福利制度以及不斷增長的財富差距都助長了不滿情緒。一黨體制，以及缺乏法治，意味著安全閥機制正在失效。由於目前全球危機對其經濟上的衝擊，以及數千萬流動勞工失去工作所產生的影響，都令人很容易預見到大陸災難性的前景。（台灣賴以為生的出口部門甚至遭受了更為沉重的打擊。）
不過，正如北京鴨每當惡劣季節都要回家休息，但到秋天仍會出現那樣，應該以全景的角度看待中國。我們可以列舉十條相反的理由，也許還有更多，但這樣一份清單不應過多。
1、是的，2008年的最後幾個月增長的確已經下降。不過，中華人民共和國的經濟仍在擴張。
2、是的，出口正在下滑。不過，在價格和數量方面，進口下降甚至更快。因此，去年下半年貿易盈餘的紀錄再創歷史新高，達到2950億美元。
3、是的，中國正在遭受世界危機的折磨，而且資金已經開始外流。不過，去年十二月份，中華人民共和國的外匯儲備仍然跳升610億美元，達到19500億美元。
4、是的，人民已經開始擔憂，而且儲蓄開始上升。不過，最新的零售商銷售數據與往年同期相比仍然上升20%。
5、是的，在2007到2008年間，140家最大的國營企業盈利下滑26%。不過，去年前十一個月，它們的合併營收仍然增長20%。
6、是的，實際失業率至少是官方公布數字——4.5%的一倍。不過工資也在快速增長之中。
7、是的，在製造業中心廣東和浙江，大量生產鞋、體恤衫和塑料製品的工廠已經關閉。但這些起源於1980年代的工廠倒閉是因為中國要提高產業鏈中的地位，以及動搖這種血汗工廠模式的新勞工法生效。
8、是的，通常被看作一項經濟活動良好指標的能源需求數據正在戲劇性的緩慢下降。不過，更為窘迫的時期或許會推動企業把原本浪費的部分投入用於效率的提高，特別是當電力價格管制被取消時。
9、是的，中國是以財政補貼和新基礎設施開支（據說達到1萬億人民幣，約合1000億歐元）為主的政府投資主導型經濟。不過，哪個政府不會做類似的事情呢？最新數據顯示，到去年十二月份，銀行為企業實際貸款已經增至18.8%，而M2貨幣供應也增至17.8%，考慮到2008年下半年通脹的巨大降幅，這是一個很大的增長。
10、是的，已經下崗的工人當中有一些不滿，或許農曆新年假日之後，這些人無法再次得到城市職位，而且鄉村就業機會本已過剩，加之許多返鄉的流動勞工缺乏耕作技術。不過，值得注意的是，那些有關群眾抗議活動的報道反覆提及，剛剛在廣東發生的暴力騷亂中，當局均迅速行動，以安撫不滿者。
這並非低估中華人民共和國目前遇到的困難，也非刻意美化，即便現時的政策作為證實總理的樂觀看法，仍會有另一波衰退將持續至2010年末。從大部分當前指標來看，形勢確實在下滑。與1990年代末那次大衰退時期相比，目前的經濟和社會形勢都要複雜得多，而且中央政府的操舵能力仍有待商榷。
儘管仍堅持一黨統治，但始自1978年的中國改革仍處於一個易變的過程，領導層已經不得不割捨了許多由毛澤東強加的控制。不過，對於黨的領袖胡錦濤及其同事來說，他們的賭注要比其他國家的領導人高不少。共產黨及其政權如今最吸引的統治合法性來自經濟增長和社會穩定。這意味著他們不得不全神貫注對待當前的經濟問題。一場災難性的蕭條不僅將危及其地位，而且也將讓人們對自1978年以來政權的統治形式體制產生疑問。
要看清中國的前景，必須將其置於更為寬廣的背景之下。與當下末日論者的說法相比，這個國家或許將有更多變數，但它目前正面臨的生存考驗是西方所不熟悉的。這次賭注如此高昂——而且中國對於世界的重要性如此之大——因此我們不該通過一個摩尼教（二元論）透鏡簡單的對其進行分類。
【來源地址】http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jan/16/china |
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