|
|
原文鏈接：http://www.independent.co.uk/lif ... by-2030-782978.html
翻譯鏈接：http://feed.yeeyan.com/articles/view/19637/4875
據一位領頭的科學「未來學家」說，在未來的20年裡，由於科技正以更快的速度向前發展，電腦的能力將達到和人類智力同等的水平。
科技進步在下半個世紀里將會比整個20世紀多32倍，而其中一個結果就是在2030年前人工智慧將和人類智力不相上下，美國電腦權威人士Ray Kurzweil這樣說。
機器將迅速地在智能方面趕上人類，並且很快就能解決21世紀最難解的問題，Kurzweil博士說。作為被選出來的18位獨立思想家之一，他參與了確認人類面臨的最大科技挑戰的工作。
Kurzweil博士向來被認為是科技預測領域最激進的分子之一。他的確信源於他在電腦各個領域都是先行者，比如光學字元識別（CD背後的科技基礎），及機器自動語音識別等領域。
他在昨天提交給美國科學發展協會AAAS的陳述中描繪了這樣一個未來：一旦機器學會如何相互交流、相互教授以及相互複製，其智能將將遠遠超過人類大腦。
他論題的中心是：硅科技遵循「加速循環法則」。比如說電腦晶元在過去半個世紀每兩年能力就翻一倍，這也導致了整個硅科技的不斷加速發展和小型化。
Kurzweil博士在波士頓AAAS的年會上說:"現在變更率每十年翻一倍，所以我們在下半個世紀將會看到比整個20世紀多32倍的科技進步。計算、通訊、生物科技（如DNA測序）、大腦掃描、關於人腦的知識以及人類總的知識都在不斷加快步伐加速，基本上每年性價比、容量和帶寬都會翻一倍。"
到目前為止，電腦都基於二維硅晶元，但是我們已經很好地發展到能夠製造出能力大大改進的三維晶元了，甚至在構建他們的時候還可以使用比金屬電腦晶元更能小型化的生物分子。
「在2030年前，三維分子處理將給硬體帶來可達人類水平的強大人工智慧。而更重要的軟體識別力的進步則部分源於一項正在進行的人類大腦逆向工程。已經有兩打的人類腦區被模擬和模擬了。」他說。
儘管人腦在直接儲藏量和信息檢索方面無法達到電腦的水平，但它在關聯不同線索的信息、前瞻、計劃以及表現對於人類生存最關鍵的想象創造力等等方面是無可匹敵的。但是Kurzweil博士是其中一個認為電腦正走在一條創造「後人類」世界（即人類之外還存在第二、智能群體）的康庄大道上的科學家。
「一旦非生物智力達到了人類智力的廣度和精確度，由於信息科技的繼續加速以及機器立刻共享他們知識的能力，它當然會超越後者。」Kurzweil博士說。
「我們理解了疾病和衰老過程都是信息過程，也獲得了把他們重新編程的工具。比如說，RNA干涉使我們能夠選擇性地沉默基因，而新型基因治療則使我們可以有效地加入新基因。再過20年，我們便能夠停止並逆轉疾病和衰老的進程從而在健康和長壽上取得巨大的收穫。」他還提到。
Rise of the machines
The history of "artificial" intelligence goes back to classical times, although of course it was never called by that name. The Greek myths of Hephaestus and Pygmalion incorporate the idea of intelligent machines that take on human form. We would call them robots.
Mary Shelley took up the theme of man trying to create a living image of himself in her story of Frankenstein's monster, but the word "robot" did not enter the English language until Karel Capek's 1923 play R.U.R., which stood for Rossum's Universal Robots. The idea of a machine being able to match the intelligence of humans was explored in the 1940s by the great English mathematician Alan Turing, below, who devised his test of artificial intelligence. In a seminal scientific paper published in 1950, Turing came up with a practical solution to the problem – the Turing test. Turing said that a machine would be deemed to have passed the test if human beings could interact with it as they would with another person.
The term "artificial intelligence" (AI) was first coined by the computer scientist John McCarthy in 1956, and the concept was explored in the 1950s and 1960s by the likes of Marvin Minksy, of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
The science fiction writer Arthur C Clarke drew on the concept of AI in his book 2001: A Space Odyssey, which featured an intelligent computer called HAL that was an intellectual match for man.
By the mid-1970s the financial backers of the AI industry became disillusioned over its inability to match the human brain. But then, on 11 May 1997, the IBM computer Deep Blue became the first machine to beat a reigning world chess champion. This was soon followed by other "intelligent" feats such as the robot car driver which drove 131 miles along an unrehearsed desert trail.
AI, portrayed in films such as Blade Runner and The Terminator, was on a roll again.
[ 本帖最後由 iamcaibird 於 2008-2-23 15:54 編輯 ] |
|
狗仔卡
提升卡
置頂卡
沉默卡
喧囂卡
變色卡
搶沙發
樓主
