倍可親

人民幣,美元,股市最近有點亂

作者:fibonnachi  於 2017-8-3 08:25 發表於 最熱鬧的華人社交網路--貝殼村

通用分類:熱點雜談|已有7評論

關鍵詞:人民幣, 美元

人民幣疾風勁草,從51號從6.9逆勢一路漲至6.71。 死卡嚴防的堵住外匯外流奏效了嗎當然。


首富清倉大甩賣,並向祖國保證投資重點全放在國內。史上最有錢的航空公司海外併購全部收手儼然是明確的信號,5萬的外匯額度完全是小玩鬧,大窟窿堵住勝過千萬個小玩鬧。值得注意的是,中國經濟並沒有實質性的變化,鋼一噸也沒少煉,房子也沒打折。

 

 

反觀美元,2017新年開始已經一路下跌,美元指數103已經是昨日黃花,今天已跌至關鍵關口的92左右,現處在自20155月以來的關鍵支撐區域,


目前看,向下的動能還沒有失去甚至減弱的跡象。貨幣的走向實際也是外部世界認知一個國家的關鍵指標,歐洲經濟的復甦帶動了近期歐元上漲,美國除了經濟,政治的不確定性也拉弱了美元,目前除了蓋美墨邊境的圍牆的小目標,其他諸如健保,減稅,大規模基建等關鍵政綱均陷入了泥沼。川大爺火氣大,身邊炒人無數,新找的沖基金大佬幹了10天幕僚長就捲鋪蓋跑了。剩下的北韓核問題以及和普京互掐就更不用說了。


市場不喜歡不確定,至少近期美元的走勢是悲觀的。美元指數如果不能再92附近穩定住,這波起於2008年的美元反彈就分不清是階段性調整還是就此玩完了。川大爺隨那麼一說的弱勢美元可就真成真了。


別忘了,美元現在一個30年長期下降通道中。

 

 

股市目前貴,羅伯特.席勒前幾天CNBC訪問講的已經很清楚了。目前的價位是1929年大蕭條和2000年科技股泡沫以外的第三個高點,按他的原話,貴,但還不是超級貴。長期價值投資的投資人,是時間考慮下調整投資組合,雞蛋都分開放了。席勒是真正的大師,他關於人心理和社會因素如何影響股市的見解深邃精闢。就如巴菲特成功的投資,除了價值投資爐火純青的技術,其超越世人的心理無出其二。


 市場不能預測。順便看了眼芝加哥波動指數,目前的市場波動性已降至1991年來的最低點,市場風平浪靜,完全看不出恐慌的跡象。暴風前的寂靜?我又杞人憂天想多了,深吸了一口氣,晚上回去喝點啤酒壓壓驚吧。


以上信息僅供閱讀參考,非正式投資建議。作者建議投資人在做投資決定前諮詢專業投資顧問

作者簡介:Sen Zhang 張森,正確資本資產投資管理公司(Corrigit Capital Group)管理合伙人。具備多年美元資產投資和管理經驗,長期為客戶提供專業的風險評估和投資策略,包括股票,債券,房地產和外匯等熱門投資領域。

作者微信:corrigit

http://corrigitcapital.com/


高興

感動

同情

搞笑

難過

拍磚

支持
1

鮮花

剛表態過的朋友 (1 人)

發表評論 評論 (7 個評論)

回復 SecondThought 2017-8-3 22:23
"別忘了,美元現在一個30年長期下降通道中。" ............ USD is in a secular bull market that started in 2011. The current down leg is only a part of the consolidations after a leg up since 2014. Chart wise, the range building may still have some months to go before the completion. The next top will be 122 on the dollar index, which was the top in 2001. The previous secular bear market for the dollar started in 1985 (the Plaza Accord) and ended in 2011 after America went through two asset bubbles, one for technology and internet in late 1990s and the other for the housing market that triggered the subprime mortgage crisis.
回復 SecondThought 2017-8-3 23:31
"席勒是真正的大師,他關於人心理和社會因素如何影響股市的見解深邃精闢。" ........... Robert Shiller's work may only be a masterpiece in academic world but offer very little predictability in the real world. The valuations of most asset classes are well above their historical means because of historically low interest rates. The stock is only one of them but cheaper than the bond at least. If inflation does not go back to its long-term mean around 4% a year, say, within next 20 years, the valuation of equity will likely stay well above the average of the Shiller P/E ratio for many years.
回復 fibonnachi 2017-8-4 01:30
thank you for your thoughtful comments , Dr Second Thought    !
回復 SecondThought 2017-8-4 06:12
You are very welcome. Actually Fibonnachi ratios are much more useful than the Shiller's ratio.
回復 fibonnachi 2017-8-4 06:46
SecondThought: You are very welcome. Actually Fibonnachi ratios are much more useful than the Shiller's ratio.
you mean Fibonacci ?
回復 SecondThought 2017-8-4 08:28
Yes, that was my typo. The correct spelling should be Fibonacci. The most useful ratios are 0.382, 0.500 and 0.618. These are the levels of the retracements (or called counter-trend pullbacks or corrections) that traders focus on. If we apply the Fibonacci ratio on the USD index. The recent leg up started at 91.88 in 2014 and topped out at 103.82 in 2016. The 0.500 retracement should bring the dollar index back to 91.38. The dollar correction in the first half of 2016 ended at 91.88. So the current correction may end in the 91.38-91.88 zone (But TA is not an accurate math). USD index closed today at 92.71 and is oversold on the weekly chart so that it may bottom soon although the base building may have further to go. The current dollar weakness is a good news to investors. The global economy is in good shape and there are profitable opportunities in many other countries. However money will flow back to U.S. once global economy starts slowing down because both U.S. treasuries and U.S. large-cap stocks are the safe havens. By that time, the financial market will be volatile for some time. As with RMB, the Chinese currency will still be significantly overvalued even with a 10:1 against USD, provided that RMB is traded in a free market. With a 16%-17% share in global economy, almost half of the money (if all converted to USD at the current exchange rates) in the world is Chinese RMB. Chinese central bank will continue to manipulate the exchange rate until its reserve dries up, which may take quite long time.
回復 fibonnachi 2017-8-5 01:09
SecondThought: Yes, that was my typo. The correct spelling should be Fibonacci. The most useful ratios are 0.382, 0.500 and 0.618. These are the levels of the retrac
nice input, I should buy you a lunch (:

facelist doodle 塗鴉板

您需要登錄后才可以評論 登錄 | 註冊

關於本站 | 隱私權政策 | 免責條款 | 版權聲明 | 聯絡我們

Copyright © 2001-2013 海外華人中文門戶:倍可親 (http://big5.backchina.com) All Rights Reserved.

程序系統基於 Discuz! X3.1 商業版 優化 Discuz! © 2001-2013 Comsenz Inc.

本站時間採用京港台時間 GMT+8, 2024-3-29 22:23

返回頂部