比較清醒的美國人

比較清醒的美國人

在一個著名的美國網站WHAT REALLY HAPPENED(WRH) 上看到美國作家Fred Reed今天的署名文章。

他把美國和中國的現狀作了一個客觀的比較，沒有「中國威脅論」 ，沒有「人民幣操縱論」 ，沒有「沃爾馬廉價產品論」 ，沒有「中國搶美國人工作論」 等等論。

他對美國政府自身的錯誤決策作了客觀的分析，得出為什麼中國在各方面大步踏進，而美國一直原地踏步甚至倒退的原因。

其中有一段讓人拍案叫絕，他說：

「注意到，中國有一個完美的政府，一個聰明的獨斷專行的政府，他們總是關注著自己國家的進步。而美國政府關注的是那些自私自利的遊說集團和華爾街的搶劫者們的利益。注意，中國由一批工程師領導著，而美國是由律師掌權。」

Note that China has that perfect government, an intelligent dictatorship concerned with advancing the country. The American government consists of self-interested lobbies and Wall Street looters. China is run by engineers, America by lawyers. Watch.

====================================

翻譯原文：

 在討論美國衰退之前，讓我敘述一段故事，也許帶有悲觀的預言色彩，但我相信它，因為我喜歡它。這是一個關於捕獵猴子的故事。某些部落擅長製作一種很重的罐子，開口正好可以容下猴子的手；但是當猴子握緊拳頭的時候，則不能撤出。他們隨後在罐子里放入猴子喜歡吃的食品。猴子把手伸進去，抓住食品，但是退不出來，直到獵人趕來，逮住他們，吃掉這些猴子。

　　
　　讓我們來看看我們的政治途徑。美國整個國家就像一個猴子，不放手。黨派完蛋了，孩子們，但是我們還不能適應這種變化。
　　
　　例如，當人們發現他們再也買不起SUV，McMansion的時候，他們仍然處於購買那些荒唐的物品的狂熱的攀比性消費中，只不過換了用信用卡支付的方式。猴子不放手。他們被利用了。
　　
　　國內政治也是如此。美國也曾對毒品宣戰了半個世紀，但是徒勞無功，不得不接受毒品成為經濟體系不可分割的一部分。產生的邪惡是巨大的。但是猴子不放手。
　　
　　國際上猴子原則同樣讓我們如坐針氈。國家已經無可挽回地向一個區域性軍事、經濟和外交強權方向發展。沒有奇迹，也沒有中國那樣可以想象但是不太可能出現的天災，美國只能變成中型的土豆。我們不可以改變什麼，但是我們試圖以破產的代價改變之。我們不放手。
　　
　　如果我們的眼光可以透過《讀者》式的《福克斯新聞》的愛國主義，透過高中生擁護Sarah Palin(美國共和党參選人)的拉拉隊，甚至穿越國家的邊界，那麼這一切都清清楚楚擺在面前。
　　
　　按照中國標準，美國是個小國家，人口不過其四分之一。他們的經濟增長率接近兩位數。誠然，這種增長會減速，也許不會。除非天災人禍發生，問題不是中國會不會超過美國，而是什麼時候超過美國。告訴我，為什麼這一切不可能。
　　
　　所有的強權都來自於經濟強權。美國衰退、嬉戲、吮大拇指的時候，中國在投資，到處投資。這是硬道理，沒什麼說不過去的。都是精明的商業遊戲。
　　
　　不要低估這些眼角內褶(指蒙古族的體貌特徵)的人們。我幾年前在台灣曾經與中國人共同生活過。我喜歡他們，現在也是。我知道他們聰明，有紀律，好學，實幹--也充滿民族主義，對種族很敏感。恩，我們並不認可這些態度(可能指民族主義)。但是我們如何想無關緊要(可能指並不能改變中國人的民族主義想法)。
　　
　　

　　注意中國有一個完美的政府，聰明的專制，關心他們國家的進步。美國政府門前充滿了為自己利益而來的遊說者，和華爾街的掠奪者。中國是工程師在治理。美國是律師在治理。
　　
　　美國正處在無情的自殺過程中。如果國家不製造東西，經濟是無從談起的。然而製造業正從美國海岸線撤離。造船業，鋼鐵，消費者電子工業，鐵路，都沒了。你可能還覺得你的惠普手提電腦是美國產品，但是更可能的是，每個元件都是海外製造的，並且在台灣組裝。
　　
　　整個國家，如同以往，只知道向內看，不理解也不明白再也不能以抗拒「共產主義」 來掀起美國人對中國的仇視。
　　
　　美國在世界上欠債最多，而中國是最大的債權國。我們可能還不清我們欠的，所以要麼欠著，要麼通脹。不知道還有沒有第三種選擇。然而，政府還在花錢，花錢，花錢，借錢，借錢，借錢。沒有人能控制。沒人關心。他們只關心自己的口袋。然而。。。
　　
　　理性地說，該是拋棄那些我們買不起的奢侈品了。但是，不。美國還在買那些它買不起的東西，繼續扮演他扮不下去的角色，因為這將傷害國家的虛榮，因為唱片銷量榜上我們不再排名第一。(new kid on the block是暢銷唱片)。猴子不放手。
　　
　　套在美國脖子上的磨盤是五角大樓。餵飽軍隊合同的直接成本可以完全拖死正在下沉的經濟體：本年度高達7200億美元，還加上1200億美元消耗在沒有打完的戰爭上，還有那些灰色的項目，老兵管理費，等等。恐怕10000億美元才能打住。。。。。。The more perceptive note the opportunity cost of wasting so much engineering talent, so much money for research and development, on martial zoom-wowees.
　　
　　中國，俄羅斯，穆斯林世界，拉丁美洲，和所有抵制美國的力量一定正在欣賞這一奇觀吧。燒錢，燒錢，哦那些眼睛睜得比銅鈴大的傻子...
　　
　　虛榮。北朝鮮並沒有與美國接壤，平壤也不會派遣軍隊越過阿肯色州界，但是我們仍然在南朝鮮駐軍。我們駐軍，是因為我們認為我們生來就是要統治這個世界的。猴子不放手。
　　

　　
　　我們的現實選擇，是撤出軍隊，或者直線向下沉淪。但是我們不可能撤軍。一旦你的經濟嚴重依賴那些不具有生產力的花銷，你就撤不出來了。比如，從南朝鮮撤軍30，000看起來很明智，但是這隻會增加國內的失業率，而失業率居高不下，已經很危險了。因為軍隊對美國國防毫無幫助，因此讓這些不需要的士兵失業，也許只能加速武裝叛亂。
　　
　　更糟糕的是那些環繞著大型軍隊基地而興起的、為軍隊及軍屬提供後勤服務的小鎮。關閉基地，這些小鎮就會死亡。關閉Lejeune營地，Jacksonville、Fort Bragg、Fayetteville、Fort Hood、Killeen這些小鎮就會凋敝。另外，大型公司，例如洛克希德-馬丁，波音公司，以及其他公司，他們在民用經濟中未必具備競爭力，已經成為義務性的軍備供應商。削減他們的項目，你將會得到數以萬計的失業人口，而他們在民用部門都找不到工作。
　　
　　聯邦官僚機構也面臨同樣的問題。雇傭眾多，無所產出。政治家們嗡嗡作響，聲稱要「小政府」。何以可能？削減教育部、或者城市發展住房部，或者商務部？那麼這些人又到哪裡去？
　　
　　我們可以假裝目前的衰退是暫時的，並不是富裕社會走向衰落得標誌，就像人老珠黃仍然可以塗脂抹粉，並且希望男人們看不出來。我們可以繼續燒錢，而別人正在成長；我們可以繼續用信用卡購買他們的產品，細水長流地購買。。。猴子們不肯放手。
　　
　　誰要是說我們應該賣掉房子，接受現實，我們就說誰不愛美國。那麼好吧，等著賬單到期吧。
　　
　　2011年1月13日
　　Fred， Austin

原文如下：

by Fred Reed
by Fred Reed 

Pondering Whither America, I reflected on a story, probably apocryphal but which I am going to believe because I like it, about catching monkeys. Tribesmen somewhere craft a heavy pot with a hole in it large enough that a monkey could insert an open hand, but not withdraw a closed fist. They then put monkey food in the pot. The monkey reaches in, grabs the food and, refusing to let go when the hunters approach, is caught and eaten.

Here we have our politics in a paragraph. The American national monkey can』t let go. The party is over, boys and girls, but we aren』t going to adapt.

For example: When people recently found that they could no longer afford the SUVs, the McMansions, the buying of absurdities in a frenzy of competitive consumerism, they just put it on the credit card. The monkey can』t let go. And now they are screwed.

Same-same domestic policy. The US has played War-on-Drugs for half a century, with no results but to make drugs an integral part of the economy. The evils engendered are great. Yet the monkey can』t let go.

It is internationally that the monkey principle really bites. The country is well on its way to being a merely regional power militarily, economically, and diplomatically. Short of a miracle, short of a conceivable but unlikely catastrophe in China, Americans will soon be medium potatoes. There is nothing we can do about it, but we will bankrupt ourselves trying. We can』t let go.

If you look beyond the Reader』s Digest patriotism of Fox News, and the high-school cheerleading of little Sarah Palin, if you look beyond the national borders, all of this is obvious.

By Chinese standards, America is a small country, having a quarter of its population. Their economy grows at close to double digits. Yes, it may slow down, or it may not. Short of unforeseen disaster, the question is not whether but when the Chinese economy will dwarf the American economy. Tell me why this is not true.

All power springs from economic power. While America decays, plays, and sucks its thumb, China invests. Everywhere. There is nothing unprincipled in this. It is just intelligent commerce.

Do not underestimate these people of the epicanthic fold. I have lived among the Chinese, in Taiwan years ago. I liked them, and still do. I know them to be smart, disciplined, studious, practical – as well as nationalistic and very racially conscious. No, we do not think these attitudes proper. It doesn』t matter what we think.

Note that China has that perfect government, an intelligent dictatorship concerned with advancing the country. The American government consists of self-interested lobbies and Wall Street looters. China is run by engineers, America by lawyers. Watch.

The US is midway through an inexorable suicide. If a country does not manufacture things, it does not have an economy, and manufacturing has fled American shores. Ship-building, steel, consumer electronics, railroads: gone. You may think your HP laptop is an American product, but in all likelihood every component was made overseas and it was assembled in Taiwan.

The country as a whole, as always, looks inwards and doesn』t understand, doesn』t know what stirs without. Communism no longer protects America from Chinese competition.

America is the world』s greatest debtor nation, China the greatest creditor. We cannot possibly repay what we owe, so we must either default or inflate. If another choice exists, I am unaware of it. And yet the government spends, spends, spends, and borrows, borrows, borrows. No one is in charge. No one cares. All line their own pockets. Wait.

Rationally, this would seem a good time to let go of unaffordable luxuries. But no. The US continues to buy things it can』t pay for, to play roles it can no longer maintain, because it pains the national vanity no longer to be the biggest kid on the block. The monkey can』t let go.

The millstone around the American neck is the Pentagon. The direct cost alone of feeding the military contractors is almost mortal to a sinking economy: $720 billion this year, plus another $120 billion requested for the unending wars, plus huge black programs, the Veterans Administration, and so on. A trillion wilting green ones, call it. The more perceptive note the opportunity cost of wasting so much engineering talent, so much money for research and development, on martial zoom-wowees.

China, Russia, the Moslem world, Latin America and all the rest who detest the US must be enjoying the spectacle. Spend on, spend on, oh round-eyed fools….

Vanity. We do not garrison South Korea because Pyong Yang may send its troops across our common border into Arkansas. We do it because we think it our birthright to rule the world. The monkey cannot let go.

Our practical choice is between retracting the military or going down hard. But we cannot retract. Once you have made your economy dependent on huge unproductive expenditures, there is no quitting. It might seem wise for example to reduce the military rolls by the 30,000 troops in South Korea. But they would simply increase the rate of unemployment, already dangerously high. Since most of the military contributes nothing to the defense of the United States, releasing all unneeded soldiers into joblessness would probably precipitate an armed rebellion.

There is worse. Towns spring up around large bases to supply the troops and their families. Close the bases, and the towns die. Closing Camp Lejeune would kill Jacksonville; Fort Bragg, Fayetteville; Fort Hood, Killeen. Further, huge companies – Lockheed-Martin, much of Boeing, and dozens of others – being unable to compete in the civilian economy, have become obligate military suppliers. Cut their big programs and you unemploy tens of thousands for whom there are no civilian jobs.

The federal bureaucracy is much the same, employing vast numbers yet producing nothing. Politicians drone about wanting 「smaller government.」 How? Eliminate the Departments of Education, or Housing and Urban Development, or Commerce – and where do the people go?

We can pretend that the current recession is temporary, and not a manifestation of dying opulence, just as a fading beauty can pile on the make-up and hope that men don』t notice. We can spend while others grow, buy their goods on credit – for a little while longer. The monkey can』t let go.

And any who say that we ought to put our house in order and come to terms with reality? They will be said to Hate America. Well and good, until the bill comes due.

January 13, 2011

Fred Reed is author of Nekkid in Austin: Drop Your Inner Child Down a Well and A Brass Pole in Bangkok: A Thing I Aspire to Be. His latest book is Curmudgeing Through Paradise: Reports from a Fractal Dung Beetle. Visithis blog.

Copyright © 2011 Fred Reed

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